I am back for another week of Underdog Fantasy Pick Em’ for NFL Week 4! Last week, I ended up going 4-2, bringing my record for the season to 8-4! This week, I am going to incorporate a flowchart for the pick em’ contest picks! Below is everything you need to know to cash in this week in a big way!
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NFL Week 4 Underdog Fantasy Pick Em’ Flowchart
Core Plays
The core plays are going to be my favorite plays this week as your base foundation to start your pick em’ entry to maximize. This week, there are two projections I love to get the Underdog Fantasy Pick Em’ entry started.
George Kittle Higher 41.5 Receiving Yards
The San Francisco 49ers will host division rival the Arizona Cardinals in the Bay Area. To no one’s surprise, I am again fading the Cardinals’ defense against the tight end position. Over the first three weeks of the regular season, the Cardinals have allowed each tight end they have faced to go over their receiving yards projection.
Last week, Jake Ferguson’s projection was 24.5 receiving yards, and he about doubled that projection. Furthermore, Kittle has played in 10 games against the Cardinals and has gone higher in this projection in eight of those games, including seven out of the last nine games. Play the higher on Kittle this week!
Joe Burrow Higher 37 Pass Attempts
Despite dealing with a calf injury, Burrow and the Bengals offense have not shied away from throwing the football all over the field. In fact, last week, in a low-scoring game on Monday Night Football, Burrow accumulated 49 pass attempts. Furthermore, Burrow has gone higher in this projection in two straight weeks. This week, the Bengals face one of the worst pass defenses in the entire league, the Tennessee Titans. I expect the Bengals and Burrow to again throw the ball all over the Titans’ pass defense.
3x Multiplier
Adam Thielen Higher 4.5 Receptions
Thielen has seen an increase in targets over the last two weeks of the season. Despite not having Bryce Young last week, Thielen leads the Panthers in targets thus far this season. Thielen has gone over this projection in the last two weeks, where he has combined for 18 receptions on 23 targets.
Is this also possibly a revenge game for Thielen going up against his former team? Lastly, the Vikings’ defense is one of the worst in the league. In fact, the Vikings allow the seventh-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to the wide receiver position. I’ll take the higher on Thielen’s receptions for this game against the Vikings. I love this for my Underdog Fantasy Pick Em’ entry.
Matthew Stafford Higher 256.5 Passing Yards
The Rams offense has been pass-heavy this season. In fact, Stafford is fourth in the league in passing yards per game at 303 per game. Additionally, Stafford is second in the league in pass attempts per game. The Rams also are #6 in the league in team passing play percentage thus far this season. Rams are also #4 in team passing yard percentage as well.
Stafford has faced the Colts four times in his career and has over this projection in all four of those games. The most recent games he played against the Colts was the 2020 & 2021 season, and he threw 336 and 278, respectively. Colts also rank #20 in opponent yards per completion allowed and #22 in opponent yards per pass attempt.
5x Multiplier
Dameon Pierce Higher 47.5 Rushing Yards
The Steelers rush defense continues to be terrible through the first three weeks of the regular season. In fact, the Steelers rank #30 in rushing yards allowed per game with 151.7. Additionally, the Steelers are allowing 5.2 yards per carry, which ranks #29. Furthermore, at least one running back in each of the first three weeks has gone over this project.
In Week 1, McCaffrey rushed for 152 yards. In Week 2, before Chubb left with an injury, he had 64 rushing yards, and his backup Jerome Ford rushed for 106. Lastly, in Week 3, Jacobs rushed for 62 yards on 17 carries. I know Pierce hasn’t done this in the first three weeks of the season, but he faced the #6, #7, and #13 ranked defenses in yards per rush attempt allowed. I’ll take this buy-low spot for Pierce.
Russell Wilson Higher 241.5 Passing Yards
I must have a pick in the battle of the winless teams, right? Well, I am looking no further than Mr. Russell Wilson to have a day against the atrocious Bears’ pass defense. Over the last two weeks of the NFL season, Wilson has had 300+ back-to-back passing yards in games. Why? Broncos have spent much of their games playing from behind.
However, Wilson has a favorable matchup this week against the Bears. In fact, the Bears have allowed each of the three quarterbacks they have faced this season to have a higher total of 241.5 passing yards. Furthermore, the Bears are allowing the second most yards per pass attempt and completion. Additionally, the Bears are allowing the third most passing yards of the season. I love this spot for Wilson to have a big game throwing the football. I love this for my Underdog Fantasy Pick Em’ entry!
10x Multiplier
Tank Dell Higher 44.5 Receiving Yards
As a Texans fan, I know where the value lies, and that is with Tank Dell. Dell has stepped into the offense for the injury-riddled wide receiving group and taken full advantage of the opportunity. In fact, Dell has gone higher in his receiving yard projection in all three games this season. He is also second on the team in targets. I expect Dell to continue his success early in the season and go higher on this projection for a fourth straight week.
If you want to tail this pick ’em roster but aren’t using Underdog Fantasy for daily pick ’em already, sign up today and use promo code ‘SGPN,’ and they’ll match your very first deposit. You can also get even more help on your NFL player picks for NFL Week 4 by listening to the NFL Gambling Podcast.
