The NFL is almost a quarter of the way into their regular season, and we get a new surprise every week. After three weeks, you would think we know more than what we do. Last week, the Jaguars and the Cowboys somehow lost to the two worst teams in the league. Joe Burrow and the Bengals came back from the dead to avoid an 0-3 start. We have already had three different teams have to start another quarterback. Jameis Winston will be number four. The NFL has done a nice job of creating some parity. Unfortunately, it does make things a little harder to predict. Before we preview and go through our Week 4 NFL Picks, let’s look at what we know.
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Week 4 NFL Picks: Locks, Underdogs, and Survivor Picks for Week 4
Picks of The Week
Survivor Pool Pick – San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Underdog of the Week – Miami Dolphins +2.5
Lock of the Week – Kansas City Chiefs -9.5
2023 NFL Betting Trends
Away, Favorites, Moneyline, 14-6
Home, Favorites Moneyline, 29-19
Away Underdogs Against the Spread, 17-12
Favorites are 26-18
The Underdogs are 22-19-3 Against the Spread
Road Teams are still 25-21 straight up and 25-18-3 against the spread
Totals are tied at 23-23
Let’s look at my picks for the Week 4!
Thursday at 8:15 PM EST
Detroit Lions (-1) @ Green Bay Packers (+1)
Lions Moneyline: -120
Packers Moneyline: +100
My Pick: Detroit Lions Moneyline
The Green Bay Packers have outplayed expectations by far. They are hoping to get Aaron Jones and Christian Watson back, but they are both still questionable. With a ten-day break after this week, the Packers could play the long game with both players dealing with hamstring injuries. The Packers were also down David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Jaire Alexander. This team is banged up. Give me the Lions in a close one.
Sunday at 9:30 AM EST
Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
Falcons Moneyline: +130
Jaguars Moneyline: -155
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons Moneyline
London Game Warning
The Jaguars play in London almost every year, but they have lost three of the last four games. The games tend to be lower-scoring. I am smashing the under. In the last four games, we have had totals of 38, 43, 29, and 42. The total is currently set at 43.5, and Atlanta is a ball control team. Jacksonville just looks out of the sink, and they have a few players banged up. Atlanta will draw this game out, run the ball, and I have them winning this one.
Sunday at 1 PM EST
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Houston Texans (+3)
Steelers Moneyline: -185
Texans Moneyline: +140
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline
Pittsburgh has looked much better in the last two weeks. In Week 1, they looked awful. They also played against San Francisco. Houston is coming off a huge win and playing well, but their offensive line is in for a rough day. They have a banged-up offensive line to battle T.J. Watt and company. That will be the difference in this one. Give me the Steelers to win this one.
Los Angeles Rams (+1) @ Indianapolis Colts (-1)
Rams Moneyline: +100
Colts Moneyline: -120
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams Moneyline
The Colts and Rams are two of the most impressive teams so far this year. The Rams have been competitive every week, and the Colts are 2-1 on top of their division. The Colts should get Anthony Richardson back this week and are the favorites. I like the Rams to take this one on the back of their passing game. Matthew Stafford is playing well and looks healthy, and I can’t wait for Cooper Kupp to return.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) @ Carolina Panthers (+3.5)
Vikings Moneyline: -190
Panthers Moneyline: +155
My Pick: Minnesota Vikings Moneyline
The Vikings are 0-3 in one-score games in 2023. They were 11-0 in one-score games in 2022. The regression was expected, but this is not a 0-4 team. The Panthers will likely roll with Andy Dalton again, who actually played pretty well. But, the Vikings offense is too much for this Panthers defense. The Vikings get on the board with their first win of the year. Both teams are winless, but Minnesota is by far the better team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ New Orleans Saints (-3)
Buccaneers Moneyline: +145
Saints Moneyline: -175
My Pick: New Orleans Saints Moneyline
Jameis Winston’s revenge game! Winston unfortunately had to play last week, and he was part of the Saints blowing a 17-point lead. But, this week, the Saints and Winston have a week to prepare as him being the guy under center. The Saints also have held their opponent under 20 points in 11 straight games. Tampa was a pretender at 2-0, and New Orleans is by far the better team and will separate themselves from the Buccaneers. Oh, and Kamara is back!
How good has the #Saints secondary been?
Most forced incompletions this season prior to the Monday Night Football game:#Saints CB Alontae Taylor – 6#Saints CB Marshon Lattimore – 5#Saints CB Isaac Yiadom – 5#Browns CB Denzel Ward – 5
Coach Dennis Allen extended his streak… https://t.co/f7wW5xScVH pic.twitter.com/m5cgH0Im8t
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 25, 2023
Washington Commanders (+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
Commanders Moneyline: +300
Eagles Moneyline: -400
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles Moneyline
The Eagles are one of the only undefeated teams left, and no one is expecting to change any time soon. Their offensive and defensive lines are dominant. D’Andre Swift has established himself, and their running game is impossible to stop. So is their tush push play, impossible? Should it be illegal? Sam Howell is starting to crumble, and we could start hearing Jacoby Brissett rumblings. Eagles dominate; don’t get cute with your bets here.
Miami Dolphins (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Dolphins Moneyline: +120
Bills Moneyline: -145
My Pick: Miami Dolphins Moneyline
The Bills and Dolphins are both coming off dominating performances. These are two of the hottest teams in football, and both are pretty balanced. Miami’s offense is just unstoppable right now, and 53% of betters are taking the three points. Currently, 79% of the betters are on the Dolphins’ moneyline, including me. NBA Jam rules apply here. The Dolphins are just on fire.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Bengals Moneyline: -135
Titans Moneyline: +110
My Pick: Tennessee Titans Moneyline
I was as shocked as the broadcasters on why the Rams were not blitzing Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow’s calf is a big concern, and the last time the Titans played Cincinnati, they sacked Burrow nine times! Burrow is unable to throw deep or scramble, and he is a sitting duck back there. As many concerns I have about Tennessee, I believe in Vrabel, and he will out coach Zac Taylor this week. I am taking the Titans for the upset here.
Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Ravens Moneyline: +120
Brown Moneyline: -145
My Pick: Cleveland Browns Moneyline
This is a tough week and one of the toughest ones on the slate. Divisional games are always tough, but I am riding with the team with the better defense. Cleveland has allowed 3, 22, and 3 so far this season. Baltimore is banged up and could be forced to start Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake like it is 2019. Not only is Gus Edwards questionable, Justice Hill has a toe injury, Odell Beckham Jr. and now Rashond Bateman are also hurt.
Denver Broncos (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears (+3.5)
Broncos Moneyline: -165
Bears Moneyline: +140
My Pick: Denver Broncos Moneyline
If I could pick both teams to lose, I probably would. This game is going to be awful, and I am smashing the under here. I would be shocked if they hit 40 points, and it currently is at over or under 46 points. These teams have been playing like the worst teams in football, and they were absolutely the worst teams last week. Denver has the better roster, and they have the better coaching staff. I am putting my money on them this week.
Sunday at 4:05 PM EST
Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)
Raiders Money Line: +200
Chargers Moneyline: -250
My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline
The Chargers are such a frustrating team, but they found a way to win this week. Justin Herbert is playing extremely well, and Keenan Allen is an absolute stud. Austin Ekeler is not likely to return this week, so expect Herbert to put the team on his back again. Even without Mike Williams, they have Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston to keep things moving. Chargers keep up the winning and take down the rival Raiders.
Sunday at 4:25 PM EST
New England Patriots (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)
Patriots Moneyline: +240
Cowboys Moneyline: -300
My Pick: New England Patriots Moneyline
The Dallas Cowboys fell flat on their faces last week after looking like the best team in football coming into Week 3. Dallas has injuries along the offensive line, and they had several players out on Sunday. They also lost Trevon Diggs for the season. Tony Pollard is playing great. Dak is playing average. New England looks much better with Bill O’Brien. I am going to the points and take the Patriots!
Arizona Cardinals (+14) @ San Francisco 49ers (-14)
Cardinals Moneyline: +600
49ers Moneyline: -900
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers Moneyline
This is the biggest favorite so far this year, I believe, 14 points! San Francisco is playing unbelievable ball right now, and they look unstoppable. We could have said the same exact thing about the Dallas Cowboys last week. The Cowboys ended up losing to Arizona in a shocker. The difference here is that the 49ers are healthy. Dallas had three starting linemen out, and they lost Trevon Diggs for the season. The 49ers won’t skip a beat. This is a lock.
Sunday at 8:20 PM EST
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) @ New York Jets (+9.5)
Chiefs Moneyline: -450
Jets Moneyline: +350
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline
The Chiefs’ defense has been way better than advertised, and they get Zach Wilson. New York’s offense is putting their defense at a disadvantage. They can’t afford that against the Kansas City Chiefs. Chiefs are going to boat race the Jets. New York is going to have to make a quarterback change after this. Zach Wilson has not just been bad; he has been the worst quarterback in football since Week 1.
Monday at 8:15 PM EST
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) @ New York Giants (-1.5)
Seahawks Moneyline: +100
Giants Moneyline: -120
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks Moneyline
The New York Giants are expected to get some major pieces back. No, Saquon Barkley is probably not going to be back. Andrew Thomas will be back, and the Giants are getting some other pieces as well. The team is just struggling, and without Saquon, it is hard to bet on them. Give me the Seahawks with a little extra juice. Home-field advantage has not been the factor it used to be.
