We are just NINE days away from NBA basketball! With that said, let’s get right into some bets for the 2023-2024 season. Today’s focus is the NBA Rookie of the Year Award. Below is my thought process and analysis for how I’ll be betting on the award!
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2023-2024 NBA Rookie Of The Year Best Bets & Analysis
Historic Landscape of NBA Rookie Of The Year
History tells us this with the previous winners, their positions, and where they were drafted. In the last 25 years, the average draft position for the NBA Rookie Of The Year is 4.38. Included in that sample size is a huge outlier from 2017 when 2nd round pick Malcolm Brogdon won the award.
Outside of Brogdon, in that same 25-year span, no player selected outside of the lottery has won. The last five winners were all top-five picks, and if we expand a little further, there hasn’t been a winner in the past 15 years who was outside of the lottery.
Another factor when betting this market is to lean heavily on the frontcourt positions (guard/small forward). Using that same 25-year sample size, only three big men (power forward/center) have won the award. If you want a limited sample size, six of the last seven winners were all frontcourt players.
Why Victor Wembanyama will NOT win Rookie Of The Year
As always, everything is price-dependent, and the price on Wemby is outrageous. There is no way you should have your money held for seven months on a -115 favorite. This organization has already told us several times they intend to take it slow with his development.
This means not putting a lot on his plate and using precautions with him in certain situations. We know Pop has no issue with sitting players for extended “rest.” He just signed an extension, so it is about the future more than the right now. This impacts the upside of Wemby and his performance for a full year.
The Spurs have enough talent on the roster to where they don’t need him to be the savior right away. Wemby will be impactful, but he’s not just going to be given the keys and told to “go.” That is not how Pop or this Spurs organization runs, and I don’t expect it to change. Injuries are a concern with all players, so it’s unfair to base my opinion on why he will not win the award on that front.
He also has been fairly healthy throughout his career and played a lengthy schedule for Metro 92 in which he missed limited time. HOWEVER, as I alluded to earlier, if he has the smallest injury or tweak, even if it’s non-significant and can be played through, he’s likely to be sat for a few games. All of these factors will impact his chances of winning this award as easily as the odds indicate.
Why Brandon Miller WILL win Rookie Of The Year
The price is the main reason why I am buying Brandon Miller to win. At 19/1, I think the price is too high for a player who has the ability to be the 2nd most impactful rookie behind Wemby. How did I come to that assessment? I’m glad you asked. Let’s start from the top.
Miller checks all of the historical boxes that were mentioned in the open. If you forgot, don’t worry, I’ll remind you. He was drafted 2nd overall and plays the shooting guard/small forward position. Both boxes are checked, along with the fact that he’s going to be asked to do what he does best: score points. He has an all-star point guard who wants to pass first but just hasn’t had the talent around him to be able to do so.
Miller is an excellent shooter who will be opposite Miles Bridges, who will likely draw the better wing defender. This allows Miller to get the 3rd best defenders, and I think his offensive prowess will put him in the 15-17 point per game range. Miller’s length also will make him impactful on the defensive end, which raises his floor to be able to showcase more than just offense.
If I Had To Bet a Longshot, Who Would It Be?
Keyonte George at 40/1. There are several factors that go into this bet. The first is a bet on the Jazz moving away from Colin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson. We saw what he was capable of as a freshman in one of the better conferences in the country. If that didn’t do it for you, how about being one of the more dominant players regardless of class in the summer league?
The Jazz depth chart at the front court position is the tallest task that George has to complete. All of the tools are there for George to be an explosive scorer and lead the second unit. He rebounds the ball well for a guard and will have those stretches where he looks like the best player on the floor for the offense.
These are all characteristics you want from a long shot of this magnitude. George is a sleeper in this draft for the award, especially if the Jazz front office decides to move off of some of the veteran guards and give George the keys.
