UEFA Champions League Predictions: Two 2023-24 Tournament Outrights

UEFA Champions League Predictions: Two 2023-24 Tournament Outrights

Qualifying rounds have officially concluded, meaning the field of 32 for the UEFA Champions League is set. 

The 2023-24 edition of Europe’s top tournament sees last year’s winners, Manchester City (+220), enter as a heavy favorite to repeat. Bayern Munich, six-time winners of the tournament, sit as the second-shortest price (+500), while oddsmakers price Real Madrid at +800. 

Here’s a look at the full odds list for the tournament, as well as our best bets to lift this year’s trophy. Odds come courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and are reflective at the time of writing. 

2023-24 UEFA Champions League Outright Prices

  • Manchester City: +220
  • Bayern Munich: +500
  • Real Madrid: +800
  • Arsenal: +1000
  • FC Barcelona: +1400
  • Paris Saint-Germain: +1600
  • Manchester United: +1600
  • Newcastle United: +2000
  • Napoli: +2500
  • Atletico Madrid: +3300
  • Inter Milan: +3300
  • AC Milan: +4000
  • Borussia Dortmund: +4000
  • RB Leipzig: +5000
  • Benfica: +6600
  • Sevilla: +8000
  • Lazio: +8000
  • FC Porto: +10000
  • Real Sociedad: +10000
  • Feyenoord: +10000
  • RB Salzburg: +10000
  • PSV Eindhoven: +10000
  • Union Berlin: +12500
  • RC Lens: +12500
  • Celtic FC: +15000
  • Shakhtar Donetsk: +15000
  • Galatasaray: +15000
  • Red Star Belgrade: +15000
  • Young Boys: +25000
  • SC Braga: +25000
  • Royal Antwerp FC: +25000
  • FC Copenhagen: +25000

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UEFA Champions League Predictions: Two 2023-24 Tournament Outrights

FC Barcelona (+1400, 0.5 unit) 

Although they dropped out of the Champions League in last year’s group stage, Barca enter this year’s edition with a great chance to win. 


In La Liga last season – the number two domestic league according to UEFA country coefficients – manager Xavi’s side recorded a +1.11 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com

They simultaneously proved a tough out at home, winning all but four domestic fixtures at Camp Nou while posting a +1.56 xGDiff per 90 minutes. 

Even amidst all their financial woes, the Barcelona hierarchy has managed to secure the services of top players. Midfielder Ilkay Gundogan arrives from Manchester City, adding depth to a defensive structure that conceded the fourth-fewest expected goals in all of Europe last season. 

Lastly, Barcelona are valuable at this number strictly because they recorded a better xGDiff per 90 than both Real Madrid and Arsenal. Take the five-time UCL champions at 12/1 or better. 

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Paris Saint-Germain  (+1600, 0.5 unit) 

Both Lionel Messi and Neymar Jr. have departed the French capital, but I actually rate that a net positive for the Ligue 1 powerhouse. 

PSG’s recent issues in Europe stemmed from their lack of defense, an issue they’ve looked to address in the summer. Inter’s Milan Skriniar arrives to feature at center-back while Lucas Hernandez enters to play left-back. 

Admittedly, in a small sample, early returns on the defense have left me encouraged. In a home fixture against fellow UCL side Lens, PSG held their French counterpart to only 0.4 expected goals. 

Time will tell if they can hold up in Europe, but this is simultaneously an offense receiving notable additions. Goncalo Ramos arrives from Benfica, while Ousmane Dembele comes from Barcelona. 

A front three of Kylian Mbappe – assuming he stays for the whole season – Dembele and Ramos should prove tough for opposing defenses. At 16/1, I’m willing to pay to find out if Luis Enrique’s side can make a deep run in the Champions League after reaching the final in 2020. 

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