Tuesday’s slate of games is filled with action, and we’re hitting you with our MLB picks for August 29th. Teams know they only have about a month to make that final move towards the post-season. Some are floundering under the pressure, and some are thriving. We’ll dig into all the trends to give you our favorite MLB bets for August 29th.
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MLB Picks for August 29th
Texas Rangers @ New York Mets
Start Time – 7:10 pm EST
Citi Field
Broadcast – MLB TV
While I may not be splitting the atom on this one, the Mets have been bad lately. However, the relative success of Jose Quintana is keeping this line really close. He held opponents to three or fewer runs in six of his seven starts this year. However, there is reason to believe there is a little luck there – particularly the number of fly balls he’s allowing. He’s allowed 8+ fly balls in every game this year, but this isn’t giving up many home runs. This is a problem against a team that happens top five in terms of dingers on the year.
In addition to converting more of those home runs, I expect the Rangers to get a good start from Andrew Heaney. Not only have the Mets been bad, but he’s maintained a 3.00 ERA in August. I’ll nab the run line for the Rangers at -1.5 (+130).
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants
Start Time – 9:45 pm EST
Oracle Park
Broadcast – MLB TV
The pitching situation coming out of the Bay Area on Tuesday night leaves a bit to be desired. The Reds toss out Brandon Williamson, who has had an up-and-down month. Twice this month, he’s been touched up for 4+ earned runs, and he’s failed to make it through six innings in the majority of those starts. The Giants send out Alex Cobb, who has perhaps looked even worse. Already he’s allowed at least two earned in each of his last five starts, three of which were 4+ earned. He’s only completed six innings once in that span.
While the pitching situation for the Reds does look a little better, I don’t like either side here. In games that Williamson has started this month, the Reds are just 1-4, so even when he’s good, the bullpen is getting hit. The play on this one is the over with the total set at 8 (-115). Even if the starters have their best games, the bullpens should get us to that number.
Prop of the Day – Charlie Morton o7.5 Strikeouts
It’s hard to imagine that Charlie Morton would turn into one of the big strikeout pitchers for the Braves. He has a career strikeouts per nine of 8.61 on his career – although that is weighted down by lighter numbers early on. Even this season though, his number sits short of 10.0. He has double-digit strikeouts in back-to-back games, and he only went six and seven innings respectively in those games. He faces a bottom three team in terms of strikeouts in the Rockies tonight and should easily clear this line.
If you’d like even more MLB bets for August 29th, be sure to check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping daily episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
