As Matchday 3 of the 2023-24 Premier League campaign approaches, we’re set to provide a pair of predictions for the entire slate. The 10-match weekend is headlined by Newcastle United vs. Liverpool on Sunday at St. James’ Park. Meanwhile, Manchester City travels to Sheffield United, Arsenal hosts Fulham, and two-win Brighton & Hove Albion welcomes West Ham United.
But which matches and markets offer bettors the best chance of boosting their bankroll? Without further hesitation, let’s dive into our best bets for the weekend – odds are reflective at the time of writing and subject to movement.
English Premier League Odds, Predictions: 2 Best Bets for Matchday 3
Fulham Team Total Under 0.5 Goal (-115) at Arsenal – BetMGM Sportsbook
I simply refuse to believe there’s any chance manager Marco Silva’s side scores at the Emirates. Since Fulham played their last fixture against Brentford, they sold talisman Aleksandar Mitrovic to Saudi Arabia. That leaves a big gap in their offense, which likely can’t be replaced.
Last season, Mitrovic accounted for 32.2 percent of Fulham’s total expected goals tally for the season. At 0.67 expected goals per 90 minutes, the Serbia international finished as the only Fulham player with more than 0.3 xG per 90 that played 20 or more matches.
Bettors already got a glimpse of life without Mitrovic, too. In the first half of their Matchday 1 fixture at Everton – a much weaker defensive side than Arsenal – the Cottagers created a mere 0.13 expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Silva’s side simultaneously struggled to create both against Arsenal and on the road last season. Across two fixtures, they generated 0.8 xG per 90 minutes against the Gunners and registered a mere 1.15 expected goals per 90 away from home, per fbref.com.
On the flip side, Arsenal’s defense appeared to right the ship on Monday at Crystal Palace. Prior to having a man sent off, they limited Palace to 0.33 expected goals. For those reasons, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where the hosts surrender a goal. Bet Fulham under 0.5 goal at -130 or better.
Two-Leg Moneyline Parlay: Arsenal & Brighton & Hove Albion (-114) – DraftKings Sportsbook
We’ll double down on manager Mikel Arteta’s side, who won both head-to-head meetings against Fulham last season and dropped points in only five home EPL fixtures.
Unless the Fulham defense can pull off a stunner – they let Everton, a much weaker offense than Arsenal, create 2.7 expected goals – their lack of scoring should see them drop all three points.
From there, we move on to Brighton. They’ve picked up two wins in two matches and get a West Ham side in a perfect sell-high spot. The Hammers own a +2 goal differential through two matches, but that comes against a -0.9 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
This also proved a West Ham team that performed markedly different away from home last season compared to their home results. In 19 EPL road fixtures, they posted a -0.35 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
Brighton finished last season’s EPL campaign with a +0.95 xGDiff per 90 minutes at the Amex Stadium. They also won the expected goals battle in 15 of 19 at home and completely dominated the Hammers.
Across two head-to-head meetings, the Seagulls won the non-penalty expected goals battle 3.82 to 1.22, per fotmob.com.
Based on those factors, we’ll back this two-leg parlay at -125 or better.
