Although a majority of Europe’s top-flight leagues have begun, Germany’s Bundesliga gets underway this weekend. Bayern Munich are once again heavy favorites to lift this year’s trophy, especially following the addition of Harry Kane from Tottenham Hotspur. At BetMGM Sportsbook, manager Thomas Tuchel’s side sits at -350 to win the Bundesliga.
A trophy for Bayern would qualify as their 11th consecutive Bundesliga title and 17th since the 2000-01 season. Here’s a look at the rest of the Bundesliga Odds and Predictions!
Bundesliga Odds and Predictions: Best Futures Bets for the 2023-24 Season
Bundesliga Outright Winner Futures Odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook – August 17, 11 a.m. ET
- Bayern Munich: -350
- Borussia Dortmund: +500
- RB Leipzig: +900
- Bayer Leverkusen: +2800
- Union Berlin: +5000
- Eintracht Frankfurt: +8000
- Borussia Monchengladbach: +15000
- VfL Wolfsburg: +15000
- SC Freiburg: +15000
- All Other Teams +30000 or higher. For a full list of odds, head here.
Put simply; there’s next-to-no value for bettors in this market. With the addition of Kane, Bayern solidified their biggest weakness since the departure of Robert Lewandowski.
Even amidst all the turmoil at Bayern, simultaneously consider the direction of other clubs. Dortmund lost talisman Jude Bellingham to Real Madrid, Leipzig experienced a massive exodus of talent, and no other team has the firepower to match Bayern.
The only real angle here is to take a small piece of RB Leipzig at +900 and hope Bayern stumbles to the point there’s a live betting opportunity. Yet, I’d want a much higher price to fade a side that’s won 10 straight league titles.
Bundesliga Outright Winner – Without Bayern Munich Futures Odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook – August 17, 11 a.m. ET
- Borussia Dortmund: -120
- RB Leipzig: +225
- Bayer Leverkusen: +1000
- Union Berlin: +1800
- Eintracht Frankfurt: +2000
- Freiburg: +2800
- Borussia Monchengladbach: +3500
- Wolfsburg: +4000
- Hoffenheim: +8000
- Mainz: +10000
- Cologne: +13000
- Werder Bremen: +20000
- Stuttgart: +40000
- Augsburg: +40000
- FC Heidenheim: +60000
- Bochum: +60000
- SV Darmstadt 98: +60000
Here’s a market where bettors have an opportunity to wager.
On no planet should Borussia Dortmund, who just lost their best player, sit as an odds-on favorite to (presumably) finish second in the league. With Bellingham on the pitch last season, Dortmund generated 60.1 expected goals, the most with any one player, per fbref.com.
Even with Bellingham, Dortmund finished with a +27.9 expected goal differential in the Bundesliga. Leipzig, meanwhile, finished close behind with a +25.4 expected goal differential.
Although they lost key pieces in Josko Gvardiol and Christopher Nkunku, there’s still talent throughout the Leipzig squad.
For that reason, it’s my opinion these sides are closer in quality than their odds imply. Take a shot at RB Leipzig (+225) for a half unit.
Bundesliga Top-4 Finish Futures Odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook – August 17, 11 a.m. ET
- Borussia Dortmund: -1000
- RB Leipzig: -330
- Bayer Leverkusen: +100
- Union Berlin: +300
- Eintracht Frankfurt: +300
- Freiburg: +450
- Borussia Monchengladbach: +500
- Wolfsburg: +700
- Hoffenheim: +2000
- Werder Bremen: +2200
- Mainz: +2200
- Cologne: +3500
- Augsburg: +5000
- Stuttgart: +6500
- Bochum: +10000
- SV Darmstadt 98: +10000
- FC Heidenheim: +13000
Essentially, the market believes there’s one spot to be had in this market, with Leverkusen the most likely choice.
Although it’s a touch square, I’m fully confident in backing Leverkusen to secure a top-four finish. Despite finishing with the sixth-most points last season, Leverkusen finished with the fourth-best expected goal differential.
Even more encouraging for bettors is that all of their +8.6 expected goal differential came in matches under current manager Xabi Alonso.
With Freiburg and Union Berlin major negative regression candidates, take Leverkusen to secure a top-four finish at -110 or better.
Bundesliga Relegation Futures Odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook – August 17, 11 a.m. ET
- FC Heidenheim: -110
- SV Darmstadt 98: -110
- Bochum: +180
- Augsburg: +200
- Stuttgart: +240
- Cologne: +500
- Werder Bremen: +700
- Mainz: +800
- Hoffenheim: +800
- Wolfsburg: +2200
- Monchengladbach: +4000
- Freiburg: +4000
- Union Berlin: +6500
- Eintracht Frankfurt: +6500
- Leverkusen: +15000
- RB Leipzig: +100000
- Dortmund: +100000
- Bayern Munich: +100000
Heidenheim and Darmstadt are relatively unknown quantities in this market, but I’m not about to lay prices in a futures market.
Within this market, there’s one side that stands out to me – Augsburg (+200). Somehow, this side keeps escaping the clutches of relegation.
In the 2021-22 season, they finished with the third-worst expected goal differential yet avoided relegation. That year, they finished with a -17 goal differential compared with a -21.2 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Last season, Augsburg finished with the second-worst expected goal differential in the Bundesliga but avoided relegation. They once again overperformed, posting a -21 goal differential compared to a -24 expected goal differential.
Based on that record, Augsburg has a greater chance of relegation than this price implies. Put a half-unit on Augsburg to drop down at +200 or better.
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