What once was a competitive division, the AFC South has embraced a full young movement, especially at the quarterback position. The Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts will have rookie starting quarterbacks in C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. Further, former Clemson star quarterback Trevor Lawerence enters his third season with the Jaguars. All four teams in the AFC South possess a top 10 easy strength of schedule. Which team will take advantage of the soft schedule?
Furthermore, the Titans are on the brink of having either Malik Willis or Will Levis eventually take over for Ryan Tannehill. Lastly, all four teams in the AFC South have a projected top 10 easy strength of schedule. As it stands, the 2022 AFC South Division Champs, the Jacksonville Jaguars, are favored to repeat as the division winners. But can the other three teams make a run for the division title?
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AFC South Betting Odds and Picks
Indianapolis Colts
Win Total: 6.5
Division Odds: +600
Conference Odds: +7000
Super Bowl Odds: +3000
Indianapolis Colts Best Bet: Under 6.5 Wins
The Indianapolis Colts have been in a quarterback carousel since the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck. Since then, the Colts have had five different quarterbacks to start the season. Have they finally found their man in 4th overall pick Anthony Richardson? Also, the Colts have a new head coach in former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen.
The bigger story of the offseason for the Colts is the sudden trade request by their All-Pro running back, Jonathan Taylor. Taylor met with the front office and, shortly after, requested a trade from the team. Last season, the Colts ended up with the worst offense in the league, and the hire of Steichen hopes to solve that problem.
However, the Colts lack playmakers on offense. They come into this season with a wide receiver group ranked #28, the secondary possesses a lot of questions and will be tested, and there will be growing pains with a new head coach and a rookie starting quarterback.
I believe there will be growing pains for the Colts for this upcoming season with a new head coach and a rookie quarterback. The uncertainty of the future of Jonathan Taylor makes things even more difficult for the Colts. I expect this team to be at the bottom of the division. I like the Under 6.5 wins for the Colts.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Win Total: 9.5
Division Odds: -155
Conference Odds: +1400
Super Bowl Odds: +15000
Jacksonville Jaguars Best Bet: Over 9.5 Wins
After years and years of being at the bottom of the AFC South, the Jaguars find themselves as the division favorites for this upcoming season. Is it warranted? Yes. Last season in the playoffs, the Jaguars pulled off an improbable comeback win against the Chargers. After the Urban Meyer disaster, the Jags hired an adult as the head coach last season, in Doug Pederson. Coincidentally, Lawerence had a great season for Jaguars, and this combo led the Jaguars to the AFC South division title and a playoff victory.
The Jaguars come into the season with plenty of playmakers and depth on the team. The Jaguars get Calvin Ridley after serving a year-long suspension. The wide-receiving group possesses a ton of speed and ranks inside the top 10. The argument can be made that Trevor Lawerence is a top-10 quarterback in the league.
The Jaguars will be favored in at least 10 games this season. The schedule favors the Jaguars, which ranks tied for the 7th easiest in the league. The Jaguars get home games against the Chiefs, Bengals, 49ers, and Ravens. Last season, the Jaguars were 4-6 in one-score games and lost a league-high 13 fumbles. With an expectation of the offense taking another step forward and the ease of schedule, the Jaguars should be primed to repeat as division champions.
Houston Texans
Win Total: 6.5
Division Odds: +800
Conference Odds: +10000
Super Bowl Odds: +20000
Houston Texans Best Bet: Under 6.5 Wins
The Houston Texans have been the laughingstock of the NFL over the past several seasons. In back-to-back seasons they hired David Culley and Lovie Smith as the head coach of this team. However, it seems the Texans have finally found their man at the head coaching position this season.
Like the Indianapolis Colts, the Houston Texans also have a rookie head coach in former 49ers defensive coordinator and Texans player DeMeco Ryans. Additionally, the Texans will have a rookie quarterback starting for them under center in C.J. Stroud. The Texans went all in during the NFL Draft, trading up to the #3 overall pick with Arizona Cardinals to draft the former Alabama star linebacker Will Anderson Jr. to anchor the front seven.
Last year, the Texans drafted cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. to be a shutout corner. Prior to his injury, Stingley Jr. was having a good year for the Texans, and they hope to look build on that in his second year.
Dameon Pierce Over 900.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DraftKings)
Despite the potential on his roster, the Texans fumbled away their opportunity to have the first overall pick by beating the Indianapolis Colts in the final week of the regular season last year. The one bright spot for the Texans was the starting running back Dameon Pierce before his season was derailed with an injury.
Pierce ranked 5th in yards after contact. In 13 games last season, Pierce rushed for 939 yards with an average of 4.3 yards per carry. With the second most expensive offensive line in the league, I expect Pierce to have a big season and help take some of the pressure off of Stroud to perform in his first season in the NFL. The Texans do have potential with their wide receiving group of Nico Collins, Robert Woods, John Metchie, and Tank Dell.
Expecting this Texans team to win seven games next season is a big ask. Especially when this team has won a combined 11 games over the last three season and haven’t won more than four games in that span. Like the Colts, I expect there to be growing pains for the Texans with a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach.
Tennessee Titans
Win Total: 7.5
Division Odds: +350
Conference Odds: +5500
Super Bowl Odds: +8000
Possibly the most intriguing team in this division is the Tennessee Titans. Last season, this team ended the season with a 7-10 record after winning at least 10 win games the prior two seasons. Mike Vrabel priors consistency at the head coaching position and is a few seasons removed from winning NFL Coach of the Year.
The biggest question mark for the Titans is what they want to do at the quarterback position. As it stands, Ryan Tannehill will be the starting quarterback for the Titans but could be looking over his shoulder with Malik Willis and Will Levis battling it out for second on the depth chart. Derrick Henry is a year older but is always a threat to rush for a minimum of 1500 yards.
The Titans added All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to give a huge boost to the receiver room. Hopkins is familiar with the division after spending much of his career with division rival, the Houston Texans.
Like the Jaguars, the Titans are tied for the 7th easiest schedule for the upcoming season. They welcome the Chargers, Bengals, Ravens, and Seahawks. Last season, the defense was disseminated by injuries and was 5-6 in one-score games. The Titans possess a huge advantage in net rest. Do I see a possibility where the Titans can win eight games? Yes. I would be surprised if the Titans are also in the hunt for the AFC South division title.
This could be a two-horse race in the final month of the season. The Jaguars and Titans meet in Week 18 of the regular season, which could, in fact, be a game that decides who is the AFC South Champion! At +320, there is definitely value on the Titans to be the AFC South Champs!
