After a few events on the road, the UFC heads back to the cozy Apex for UFC Vegas 78. There are a lot of closely lined fights on this one, which means there are a lot of places to find some value. We’ve identified our six favorite plays for this Saturday’s action – come check them out. Go here for UFC 292 odds.
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UFC Vegas 78: dos Anjos vs. Luque – Predictions & Best Bets
Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu – Goes to Decision (-105)
It may seem a little counter-intuitive to take two strikers, who you know are going to just stand and trade, and expect that fight to go the distance. However, the trends do really favor this going all 15 minutes. Dawodu has had each of his last five fights reach the judges’ scorecards and seven of his last eight fights as well.
Swanson may be the opposite, with each of his last four fights ending inside the distance, but it helps to contextualize that as well. Two of those were losses by TKO (which, as I noted, is unlikely with Dawodu). Also, the two victories by stoppage came against grappling heavy opponents Darren Elkins and Daniel Pineda.
Khalil Rountree ML (-170) vs. Chris Daukaus
I applaud Chris Daukaus for coming down in weight and giving light heavyweight a try. It is likely the best thing for his career, particularly after being knocked out by three heavy-hitting heavyweights in a row. However, Rountree is a tough matchup for his foray into the division. The speed advantage Daukaus had up at heavyweight won’t be there against Rountree. In addition, the power of Rountree is alarming for someone who has been KOed three times in the last year and a half.
Polyana Viana ML (+170) vs. Iasmin Lucindo
Viana had a rough start to her UFC career, going 1-3 in her first four fights. However, since then, she’s really turned things around. Her hands looked fantastic last time out in the short fight with Jihn Yu Frey. She also looked game in the fight before, taking the first round off of a tough Tabatha Ricci. She likely only lost that fight because of the takedowns. Lucindo doesn’t pose as much of a threat in that realm, and I think Viana’s striking will give her advantages on the feet.
Marcus McGhee – Wins by KO (-140)
The line on McGhee is really wide for Saturday (-400 on the moneyline). It makes sense after his debut. He took a short-notice opportunity against Journey Newson and absolutely showed out. Now he faces JP Buys, who has the deck stacked against him in every sense. It’s a short-notice fight. He’s 0-3 in the UFC, he’s lost two of his last three fights by KO, and he’ll be undersized here. It’s a little chalky, but there’s plenty of value on the KO line here.
Isaac Dulgarian ML (+145) vs Francis Marshall
Dulgarian is a bit of an unknown to UFC fans. He is just 5-0, making his way to the UFC by way of Dana White’s Looking for a Fight. All of his fights have been first round finishes, though, and in a variety of ways. He has solid wrestling, big hands, and is fast.
Marshall had issues with not being able to dominate the ground game against William Gomis, and it cost him the fight. I think he’ll struggle to grapple here and will have to face Dulgarian’s heavy hands.
Luana Santos – Wins Inside the Distance (+375)
Firstly, I also love the moneyline on Santos (-150), but I think the inside the distance prop is worth the dabble. She has shown real finishing ability, not just with her ground game, but with her hands too. Although without a KO on her record, Santos has floored numerous opponents with her big right hand before following up with a submission. She is young, incredibly strong, and looks for the stoppage at all times.
She faces TUF winner Julianna Miller, who was outclassed by Veronica Hardy in her last fight despite Hardy’s 6-4-1 record and three-year absence from the sport. As she eats hands on her feet, I expect Miller to either fall from the shots or shoot in desperation and get caught.
If you’d like even more information on UFC Vegas 78, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping weekly episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
