Believe it or not, the latest English Premier League season arrives in only nine days.
The 2023-24 campaign kicks off with defending champions Manchester City traveling to face Vincent Kompany’s Burnley. Elsewhere on Matchday One, Chelsea hosts Liverpool, Tottenham travels to Brentford, and Arsenal begins at home against Nottingham Forest.
But, before matches get underway, we’re here to provide a final summary of the various futures markets available to bettors as well as our favorite bets.
English Premier League Odds, Predictions: Futures Bets for the 2023-24 Season
English Premier League Winner Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
- Manchester City: -150
- Arsenal: +450
- Liverpool: +800
- Manchester United: +1000
- Chelsea: +1200
- Newcastle United: +1600
- Tottenham Hotspur: +4000
- Brighton & Hove Albion: +5000
- Aston Villa: +12500
- West Ham United: +20000
- Brentford: +25000
- Fulham: +50000
- Crystal Palace: +50000
- Nottingham Forest: +50000
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: +50000
- AFC Bournemouth: +50000
- Everton: +50000
- Burnley: +75000
- Sheffield United: +75000
- Luton Town: +300000
We covered this market previously when the odds dropped on May 31. Notable movers from that time include Manchester City (down from -175), Arsenal (up from +900), and Liverpool (up from +900).
Arsenal’s summer signings are the factor driving this market movement. The Gunners added Kai Havertz, Declan Rice, and Jurrien Timber from Chelsea, West Ham, and Ajax.
Despite those additions, it’s still my opinion Manchester City is the likely title winner. Although they lost midfielder Ilkay Gundogan to Barcelona, manager Pep Guardiola’s side appears on the precipice of adding RB Leipzig defender Josko Gvardiol.
If City reaches plus-money during the season, I’ll have no choice but to bet them live.
I also remain a fan of Newcastle United in the mid-teens range. The Magpies quietly produced a solid summer window, adding Sandro Tonali and Harvey Barnes, and could see more business to bolster their squad for the Champions League.
English Premier League Top-4 Finish Odds
- Manchester City: -3000
- Arsenal: -225
- Liverpool: -190
- Manchester United: -120
- Chelsea: +138
- Newcastle United: +150
- Tottenham Hotspur: +333
- Brighton & Hove Albion: +550
- Aston Villa: +750
- West Ham United: +2000
- Brentford: +4000
- Fulham: +5000
- Crystal Palace: +5000
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: +6600
- Everton: +6600
- Nottingham Forest: +10000
- AFC Bournemouth: +15000
- Burnley: +15000
- Sheffield United: +25000
- Luton Town: +50000
Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of opportunity within this market.
City and Arsenal, as demonstrated by the odds, should secure a top-four spot with relative ease. Even though Arsenal enters this season as a negative regression candidate based on last year’s results, I still power-rate them ahead of most teams.
Truthfully, the real opportunity in this market is taking a “no” on Manchester United, if available. Last season, the Red Devils finished with the sixth-best expected goal differential in the English top flight, per fbref.com.
The offense is still far too dependent on Marcus Rashford. Last season, the England international finished as the only United player with 10+ expected goals.
Their defense finished eighth in expected goals against, and they’ll have the Champions League to contend with. Expect a dip from manager Erik ten Hag’s squad.
If a “no” market on United’s top-four isn’t available, the team I would target is Newcastle United (+150).
English Premier League Top-6 Finish Odds
- Manchester City: -20000
- Arsenal: -1200
- Liverpool: -650
- Manchester United: -450
- Chelsea: -250
- Newcastle United: -200
- Tottenham Hotspur: -105
- Brighton & Hove Albion: +165
- Aston Villa: +300
- West Ham United: +700
- Brentford: +700
- Crystal Palace: +1000
- Everton: +1000
- Fulham: +1200
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: +1200
- Nottingham Forest: +1600
- AFC Bournemouth: +5000
- Burnley: +5000
- Sheffield United: +5000
- Luton Town: +10000
Not much to bet on here from a futures standpoint. That said, the team with a case is Brighton & Hove Albion at +165.
The Seagulls lost midfielder Alexis Mac Allister during the summer to Liverpool, an unquestionable blow to manager Roberto de Zerbi’s attack. Last season, Mac Allister created 12.1 expected goals and 7.3 non-penalty expected goals, good for first and fourth on the team.
In the event Brighton loses Moises Caicedo, too, they’d no longer be bettable in this market.
But, if the Ecuador international stays on the south coast, Brighton has a high ceiling. Last year, they finished with the fourth-best expected goal differential, again per fbref.com.
With Harry Kane’s future at Tottenham unknown, Brighton could slot into that sixth spot if Kane departs. At +165, it’s strictly a price play, but I’d bet it at +150 or better.
English Premier League Top-Half Finish Odds
- Arsenal: -5000
- Liverpool: -5000
- Manchester United: -5000
- Newcastle United: -5000
- Chelsea: -1400
- Tottenham Hotspur: -500
- Brighton & Hove Albion: -400
- Aston Villa: -275
- West Ham United: +110
- Brentford: +200
- Crystal Palace: +200
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: +333
- Everton: +333
- Fulham: +350
- Nottingham Forest: +450
- Burnley: +550
- AFC Bournemouth: +650
- Sheffield United: +1800
- Luton Town: +2500
The top-half race is interesting in that there are three teams – West Ham, Brentford, and Crystal Palace – vying for one spot.
West Ham is interesting in that they enter this season as a positive regression candidate. Last year, the Hammers finished with a -13 goal differential compared to a -3.9 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
But, in less fortunate news, manager David Moyes finds himself without his best player in Rice. The West Ham hierarchy has also done nothing to replace that key piece.
Based on that reason, Brentford at +200 is extremely bettable.
Although the Bees will be without talisman Ivan Toney until January, they still possess an outstanding defense. Last season, manager Thomas Frank’s side finished sixth in expected goals against.
Toney’s absence could force a more defensive approach from the Bees, who lost Pontus Jansson but added Nathan Collins from Wolves.
A half-unit will suffice on Brentford to finish in the top half. Bet it at +175 or better.
English Premier League Relegation Odds
- Luton Town: -300
- Sheffield United: -150
- AFC Bournemouth: +250
- Nottingham Forest: +250
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: +300
- Everton: +300
- Burnley: +300
- Fulham: +350
- Crystal Palace: +550
- Brentford: +800
- West Ham United: +900
- Brighton & Hove Albion: +3300
- Aston Villa: +3300
- Tottenham Hotspur: +6600
We previously covered this market back on July 21, so not a lot has changed.
Nottingham Forest remains a bet for me. The downward shift in their odds – they moved from +275 to +250 – is slightly encouraging.
I also found a +500 on Wolves at PointsBet Sportsbook, which qualifies as a bettable number. For the reasoning behind both squads, check out the above article.
Bettors should also closely monitor the situation of Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic. In the event the Serbian international secures a move to Saudi Arabia, Fulham could qualify as a relegation candidate.
