The latest English Premier League season has concluded, but bettors can already look ahead to the next season. Outright markets for the English top flight are already available with Manchester City, a team that has won four titles on the bounce, priced as an odds-on favorite at -175. Only three other teams – Manchester United, Arsenal, and Liverpool – are shorter than 10/1 to win the league.
English Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Outright Prices for 2023-24 EPL Title
Premier League 2023-24 Outright Winner Odds
- Manchester City: -175
- Manchester United: +800
- Arsenal: +900
- Liverpool: +900
- Chelsea: +1200
- Newcastle United: +1400
- Tottenham: +4000
- Brighton & Hove Albion: +5000
- Aston Villa: +12500
- West Ham United: +20000
- Brentford: +25000
- Crystal Palace: +25000
- Nottingham Forest: +25000
- Everton: +25000
- Fulham: +30000
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: +30000
- AFC Bournemouth: +30000
- Burnley: +50000
- Sheffield United: +50000
- Luton Town: +50000
English Premier League Best Outright Bet No. 1
Newcastle United (+1400, 1 unit)
Even Newcastle would probably tell you they surpassed expectations for this season, which saw the Magpies qualify for the Champions League.
Although backing a team to win the league the first year they participate in a continental competition is slightly concerning, there’s a lot to like about this side.
Presumably, a spending spree will transpire to elevate their roster for the added fixture congestion. Names like Leicester City’s James Maddison, Arsenal’s Kieran Tierney, and Bayer Leverkusen’s Moussa Diaby have popped up on the radar, but more names could surface once the transfer window opens.
That will help boost a team that posted outstanding underlying metrics in the 2022-23 campaign. Newcastle, who tied with Manchester City for the fewest losses last season (5), owned the second-best expected goal differential per 90 minutes (+0.85), per fbref.com.
Newcastle also proved to be one of the strongest road teams last season, which helps boost their chances of keeping pace with Manchester City. Regarding road results, Newcastle recorded a +0.25 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, the fourth-best mark in the Premier League, and dropped all three points only three times away from home.
That’s not to say this was a weak home side by any means. On the contrary, manager Eddie Howe’s side produced a +1.46 expected goal differential per 90 minutes at St. James’ Park, once again the second-best mark in the top flight.
In home games against sides that qualified for European competitions, Newcastle finished 3-1-2 (W-D-L) with a +8.2 expected goal differential, proving they’re capable of challenging the league’s best.
Even if you set aside all those underlying metrics, this number has inherent value for me. Under no circumstances should Newcastle be priced higher than Manchester United and Chelsea, both of whom finished with a worse expected goal differential.
English Premier League Best Outright Bet No. 2
Liverpool (+900, 1 unit)
Largely a number play with Liverpool, but there’s enough upside that I’m willing to take a shot.
Injuries riddled manager Jurgen Klopp’s side during the season, so I’m taking their metrics with a grain of salt. All told Liverpool finished with the season with the fifth-best expected goal differential, again, per fbref.com.
The big concern with Liverpool is their defense, which desperately needs a re-tool over the summer. The Reds finished with the ninth-best expected goals-against figure in the Premier League in a league that, historically, has seen the leader in that category lift the trophy three years in a row.
The fact Thiago Alcantara played only 18 games for Liverpool unquestionably hurts their defensive production, so his return to fitness should aid Liverpool.
Operating under the assumption Liverpool will add some defensive reinforcements in the transfer market, I’ll give the only other team to win a title in the last five years a look at +900 or better.
Edge Boost Tool – EPL Futures
This market is a good chance to take advantage of an offer from Edge Boost. SGPN users can receive up to $2,500 in bet advances at edgeboost.io, where the company will match your first deposit.
With that promotion, bettors can now use this offer to take these two outright prices before the season begins. From there, I’ll be looking for a hedge opportunity with Manchester City if they reach plus money at any point during the season.
After all, City has posted the best-expected goal differential every year since 2017-18 – including the year Liverpool won the title – so they’re a good bet to win the league, just not at -175.
Newcastle United (+1400, 1 unit)
Liverpool (+900, 1 unit)
Manchester City (live; if they ever get to plus money, 1 unit)
