The NASCAR Cup Series heads back to Richmond, Virginia, for its second race at the ¾ mile D-Shaped track. Kyle Larson won the April 2nd race leading 93 of 400 laps as Chevrolet swept the top three finishing positions in the race.
There are just five races left in the regular season, with five drivers within 28 points of either side of the cutoff. As of today, Bubba Wallace and Michael McDowell are in, and Aj Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, and Daniel Suarez sit just outside. A new winner from outside the top 16, or a bad points day like Suarez experienced last week at Pocono, can change things in a hurry.
Speaking of Pocono, what a race it was! Dale Earnhardt Jr said it best on X (also known as Twitter), “but damn, how good has the racing been these past several weeks? NASCAR is alive and well!” I couldn’t agree more with the 26-time Hall of Fame Cup Series driver. Ultimately it was Denny Hamlin taking home the trophy (and passing inspection to keep it this year) as he won for the seventh and all-time best at Pocono time.
Go here for more free NASCAR picks!
NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway Odds and Best Bets
NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway Betting Odds Via Caesars Sportsbook
Martin Truex Jr +400
Denny Hamlin +550
Kyle Larson +650
Kevin Harvick +650
Christopher Bell +650
William Byron +850
Kyle Busch +1200
Joey Logano +1300
Chase Elliott +1300
Ryan Blaney +1600
Ross Chastain +1800
Tyler Reddick +2200
Brad Keselowski +2500
Ty Gibbs +3500
Alex Bowman +4500
Bubba Wallace +4500
Aric Almirola +5000
Daniel Suarez +6000
Chris Buescher +7500
Chase Briscoe +9000
Austin Dillon +10000
Ryan Preece +12500
AJ Allmendinger +15000
Erik Jones +25000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +25000
Justin Haley +25000
Michael McDowell +30000
Austin Cindric +35000
Harrison Burton +75000
Ryan Newman +100000
Corey Lajoie +100000
Todd Gilliland +150000
Noah Gragson +150000
JJ Yeley +300000
BJ McLeod +500000
Ty Dillon +500000
NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway Best Bets
Ty Gibbs Over Tyler Reddick (-120 Caesars Sportsbook)
Gibbs is coming off his first career top-five finish in the NASCAR Cup Series last week at Pocono. Ty has also completed a full season in Cup Competition after he stepped into Kurt Busch’s ride at Pocono last season. Gibbs has two starts at Richmond in the Cup Series. The first start, his engine let go early, but earlier this spring, Ty managed to score a ninth-place finish. Gibbs won the Xfinity Series race in the spring of 2022 after starting in the pole position.
For Reddick, Richmond has been a case of it’s just not his track. In his six starts at Richmond, Reddick has never finished as well as Gibbs did in only his second start. Reddick’s career-best finish here is 11th. At tracks where Reddick typically wasn’t good before his move to 23XI this season, he hasn’t seemed to improve much. While I’m very high on Toyota to do well this week, I don’t expect much from the Reddick camp, and I think Gibbs will win this battle of the Tylers.
Martin Truex Jr Top Three Finish (+130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
A new way of betting on racing that I’ve found to be successful lately is taking the driver that you think wins the race and playing his top three or top five finish depending on the price. Truex Jr’s top three price is just right this week. The Joe Gibbs #19 driver has been on fire lately, leading 20 laps last week at Pocono before settling for a podium finish. The week before, Truex led 254 of 301 laps at New Hampshire, a short-flat track similar in style to Richmond.
Furthermore, Truex at Richmond is lights out. He’s got three wins in the last eight races here, with an average running position of 5.9 and an average finish of 3.9 (thanks, Ifantasyrace.com, for the stats). Truex has led 1,100 laps over the last 11 races at Richmond, leading at least 56 laps in nine of those 11. While I think Truex is the winner this week, his juicy top-three odds are a safe way to play it and still come out ahead.
Toyota’s in the Top 10 Over 3.5 (-160 Caesars Sportsbook)
Surprise, if you haven’t noticed by now. I’m all in on Toyota this week. They’ve been the best manufacturer the last couple of weeks, and their drivers are the hot hand right now. Above, I’ve made the case for both Gibbs and Truex to have good days. Denny Hamlin is also the second favorite to win this race to teammate Truex Jr and has 12 finishes in the top six in his last 15 races here. For Christopher Bell, the last five races at Richmond have all resulted in top-six finishes. The 23XI drivers of Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick don’t excite me as much but count for this if they make it inside the top 10 as well.
Martin Truex Jr to Win (+450 WynnBet)
Truex Jr has been the guy for me a lot lately. I was going back and forth on Truex or Hamlin as my pick this week and thought to myself, why go off the guy who’s been cashing for you? At Sonoma 35/1, at New Hampshire 7/1, and 30/1 in a parlay with John Hunter Nemechek. Yes, Hamlin won last week, but Truex again had the best car in the field. It’s a Martin Truex world we’re living in right now, and I think we see another strong case for that Sunday in Richmond.
Joey Logano to Win (+1400 Superbook Sportsbook)
I’ve often said on the NASCAR GAMBLING PODCAST that Joey Logano is one of the hardest drivers to handicap on a week-to-week basis. Sometimes he shows up fast. Sometimes, he’s nowhere to be found. However, I’m calling my shot on Joey this week. The #22 Penske Ford driver has been great on short flat tracks and good here at Richmond.
Two weeks ago at New Hampshire, Joey quietly ran second to Truex, and in five of the last six at Richmond, Joey has finished inside the top seven. If it ends up not being a Toyota day, Logano can put himself in a position to be there at the end, or he could lead 222 laps here like he did last fall.
NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway DraftKings DFS Picks
Martin Truex Jr ($11,000)
I’ve got to put Martin in here. If I think he wins at Richmond this week, he will be a good DFS play. Truex has averaged more points this season per race than any other driver checking in at 48.5. Two weeks ago at New Hampshire, he racked up 149.1 points. Since 2016 Truex has led all drivers with 31 wins. In 16 of those 31 wins, he also led the most laps on the day. Three of the last four times a driver has won after leading at least 84% of the laps, it was Martin Truex Jr.
Chase Briscoe ($7,100)
Briscoe has had a horrible season overall, but he shows up almost every time when it comes to short flat tracks. It’s almost like he drives for two different teams. Next week in Michigan, there is no driver. I will fade harder in any matchup I can find him in than Briscoe. On short flat tracks, though, he a great play. 10th at New Hampshire, fourth in the all-star race at North Wilkesboro, fifth at Martinsville, seventh at Phoenix, and a win at Phoenix last year. Briscoe shows up, and while you have to close your eyes to do it, he’s a good play on this style of track.
