NFL Week 1 is getting closer by the day! We’re 64 days away from starting the NFL season. In this picks edition, we’re covering NFL Week 1 Team Point Totals. You might be casually perusing the early NFL Week 1 betting lines and thinking you might have the answer to some early profits, but why stop there?!
Team point total picks are a great way to hedge some of your early action, especially if you’re already involved in the NFL Week 1 game-total market. There are some friendly numbers to be found, especially for some of the higher-scoring teams in the NFL from last season. Be sure to check back daily for all our betting content; today, it’s team point totals, but we have so much to offer, come ride with us!
NFL Week 1 Team Total Picks
Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
The Atlanta Falcons open the 2023 season by hosting the Carolina Panthers at Home. The game total opened at 43.5 points but has shifted at multiple sportsbooks. The Falcons are -1 on the spread, and both teams are paying even odds on the money line. The game couldn’t be tighter on paper. However, let’s not forget what the Falcons did with “Less” last year.
The Falcons scored 23+ in six of their first eight games last season with less talent at running back and quarterback. You may not love Desmond Ridder, but the Falcons think he’s better than Marcus Mariotta, the same QB who had to do very little for his team to find the endzone last year. Arthur Smith will have a solid game plan in play for his young QB in Ridder.
He also has a great offensive line in place to build the run game and set up success in the passing game. The Falcons also have Kyle Pitts returning from injury. His absence led to a decline in total team points scored per game. The Atlanta Falcons have a surprisingly dangerous offense with the addition of Bijan Robinson to the mix of Drake London and the aforementioned Kyle Pitts. Desmond Ridder looked good to close 2022. The Falcons scored 50 total points in his last two starts, and both were at home.
Atlanta Falcons Over 22.5 (-115)
San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The 49ers averaged 26.4 ppg in 2022, ranking them 6th in the NFL for total points scored. They open on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. While there is uncertainty about who the starting QB will be for the 49ers in Week 1, the 49ers are consistently saying it’s going to be Brock Purdy.
Purdy is returning from injury, but many are skeptical he’ll be ready at that point. Even if the 49ers are incorrect in Purdy’s injury assessment, I trust this team to score points with the offense they have in place. Even if Sam Darnold or Trey Lance start under center, they acquired Christian Mccaffrey last season and still bring back Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. It’s a deep group that I trust can score three-plus touchdowns against the Steelers in Week 1.
The 49ers are playing on the road, but they are a team that executes in the trenches and plays solid fundamental football. This team total line is an overreaction to the uncertainty of who SF’s starting QB will be; expect this number to rise once there is a clearer idea on Purdy’s health; it only takes one video of Buddy completing a few passes in practice!
San Francisco 49ers Over 21.5 (-105)
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
The Bills open the season on the road to face the New York Jets. While the Jets have a formidable defense, the Bills love scoring points! The Bills ranked fourth in total points last season while averaging 26.7 ppg. Buffalo didn’t reach this number in either matchup with the Jets last season; however, neither of those matchups opened the season.
The Bills scored 72 total points in Weeks 1 and 2 to open the 2022 season. Whether it’s the lack of snow or just the itch to play football again, the Bills can be relied on to open the year with a bang. For reference, in the 2021 season, the Bills scored 30+ in five of their first six games to open that season.
The game total is set at 47 points, and the Bills are favored -1.5 on the spread with -120 odds ML. The books have this matchup pretty close, but I lean in favor of the Bills on all fronts; they’re an offense with more chemistry. Aaron Rodgers is great, but he’s still on a new team with a new offense. I could talk myself into the under for the Jets’ total points scored and the Over in the game; I think the Bills could win by a significant margin.
Buffalo Bills Over 23.5 (-120)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots
The Philadelphia Eagles were a scoring machine last season. They ranked second in total points scored and averaged nearly 30 points a game with 28.0 ppg. This Week 1 matchup opens on the road but feels like a nice opportunity against a lowly Patriots roster.
The Patriots are always known for their defense, but their offense has been lackluster since the departure of Tom Brady. I could easily see the Eagles scoring 20 in the first half of this game, just from the potential production from their defense that ranked 8th in the fewest points allowed a season ago.
The Patriots feel like an “average at best” team, a group that might be able to go a couple of rounds with a good team; but fail to compete across all four quarters. The game total is 46 points, and the Eagles are -4.5 favorites with -195 odds on the ML. The Eagles should be even bigger favorites in this matchup. I’m guessing we see both the team total points and spread climb higher as the offseason moves on; attack these numbers while you can.
Philadelphia Eagles Over 24.5 (-110)
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
Rookie QBs are just 7-18 against John Harbaugh’s Ravens. I don’t expect much to change when C.J. Stroud takes on the Ravens in Week 1 this upcoming NFL season. The Houston Texans look ready to take a step forward, but the Ravens are another very fundamental team and rely on the success of strong talent and execution. The Ravens ranked 3rd in the fewest points allowed last season.
This is a team that acquired Roquan Smith and resigned him in the offseason, providing the team with a reliable presence in the middle of the field. The Texans are nine-point dogs in this game, and the Ravens are favored -410 to win outright.
I don’t expect much out of the Texans to open the year, this feels more like a 4th preseason game for both teams, and we know the Ravens crush the preseason! Take away some early profit from the Texans’ woes to open the 2023 season.
Houston Texans Under 17.5 Points (-125)
Parlay these 5 Picks on Draft Kings to get odds of +2199
$25 Wager Pays $574.89
