The NFL Season is getting closer and closer. We are less than one month away from the start of the pre-season, where the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns will face off in Canton, Ohio, to welcome NFL football back for the 2023 season. Now is the time to get those season-long props and games going as we patiently await the new NFL season.
Underdog Fantasy, in addition to their wonderful best ball fantasy drafts, offers a pick ’em game. Inside of that pick ’em game is their “Rivals” game, and that’s what we’ll focus on today. Rivals is a matchup of two players centered around a stat category, like points, goals, or yards. Most Rivals will have an adjustment.
For example, LeBron (+2.5) points vs. Kevin Durant means that LeBron would be graded as a Win if LeBron scored more, equal, or two fewer points than Durant. For Durant to win, he would have needed to score three more points than LeBron.
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Underdog Rivals- Season Long Head-to-Head Pick ‘Em, Quarterbacks
Jared Goff vs. Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards (No Adjustment)
This is the first one on the board, and it comes with no adjustment. Meaning this is a straight-up who throws for more yards head-to-head. Goff got the best of this matchup last year, throwing for 4,438 yards, while Rodgers had only 3,695 yards. Before that, Rodgers threw for more yards in the two previous seasons as Goff missed games in both 2022 and 2021.
This season Rodgers heads to his new home in New York with the Jets, his fancy new toy in Garrett Wilson, and some familiar faces with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb following him. Goff is entering his third season with the Lions and second in Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson’s offense in Detroit.
Young stud wide receiver Jameson Williams is suspended for the first six games, but Amon-Ra St. Brown returns, and rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs joins the team and should be a high-value target out of the backfield.
I expect both of these teams to have solid offenses in 2023 and both quarterbacks to be productive. My only concern with Goff is that he’s missed games three different seasons over his six seasons as the starter. In that time frame, Rodgers has only missed games in one season. However, barring injury, I expect the Lions to continue to put themselves in shootout games with a defense that still needs work. That led to Goff’s massive production last year, and I expect a similar performance this season.
Pick: Jared Goff
Desmond Ridder vs. Anthony Richardson Passing Touchdowns (+0.5 Adjustment Ridder)
The battle of the young guns. Ridder enters his second season with the Atlanta Falcons after starting the season’s final four games. It was a rough start for Ridder’s starting career, throwing for just 97 yards in his debut vs the New Orleans Saints. Over the next three games, Ridder averaged 203 yards through the air. Ridder has a young cast of stars around him in Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and new running back Bijan Robinson.
Richardson was the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The 21-year-old from the University of Florida comes in as one of the biggest question marks from the rookie class. The Colts took him earlier than most projected, and scouts will tell you he has a low floor and a high ceiling.
Jonathan Gannon comes over from the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles to take over the head coach job after his tenure with Jalen Hurts. Richardson has Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor as his main weapons.
There isn’t much to go off stats-wise on this. So it’s more of a question of who you believe in. Third-round pick Ridder didn’t inspire much confidence in me in his small sample size at the end of 2022.
Richardson comes in with so much promise on a team that isn’t as bad as having the fourth-overall pick would lead you to believe. His lack of star weapons and his ability to scramble and run well, which could take away from his passing attempts in the red zone, scare me some, but I’ll take the upside of Richardson in this matchup.
Pick: Anthony Richardson
Josh Allen vs. Joe Burrow Passing Touchdowns (+1.0 Adjustment Allen)
Two high-flying offenses with star quarterbacks go head-to-head in this matchup. For Allen in 2022, he tossed 35 touchdowns in 16 games. 36 in 2021 over 17 games and 37 in 2020 over 16 games. Joe Burrow tossed 35 in 2022 and 34 in 2021. These two couldn’t get much closer year to year in touchdown passes.
The Buffalo Bills return Stephon Diggs, who missed the first day of OTA’s but appears to be on track to not hold out. Gabe Davis is back, and the team added rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid and veteran pass-catching running back Damien Harris as weapons to this dangerous offense.
For Cincinnati, all of Burrow’s main pass catchers return in stars Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. A lot of questions surround running back Joe Mixon, and the loss of Samaje Perine could lead to more passing attempts and touchdowns from Burrow.
The Underdog has this price to favor Burrow, and I have to say I agree with them. Burrow has more pass-catching options and isn’t as quick as Allen to pull it down and scramble. Allen’s style of running also leaves him more susceptible to injury.
Pick: Joe Burrow
Trevor Lawrence vs. Dak Prescott Passing Yards (+50.0 Adjustment Lawrence)
The established veteran matched up against the young stud. Prescott is entering his eighth season in the league, while Lawrence heads into his third year. Both teams come into the season with high expectations, with DraftKings Sportsbook setting each of their over/under wins at 9.5.
Lawrence enters year two with Doug Pederson in charge, where Lawrence threw for almost 500 yards more (4,113) than his rookie season (3,641). Christian Kirk proved to be a solid number-one option in 2022, and now Calvin Ridley returns from suspension to join the team. Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne all return for this potent offense.
The Cowboys have shaken up their offensive coaching staff by letting Kellen Moore go and bringing in Brian Schottenheimer to replace him. Ezekiel Elliott is currently a free agent, and Dalton Shultz is now a member of the Texans—Ceedee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Tony Pollard return.
Brandin Cooks continues his tour of the NFL, joining the Cowboys, and rookie tight end Luke Schoonmaker joins the team. The biggest concern with Prescott, he’s missed at least one game over each of the last three years, making only five starts in 2020.
Assuming both quarterbacks play the full season, this should be a shootout. There are enough questions around the Cowboys’ offense and their weapons that I feel more comfortable with Trevor Lawrence continuing his rise to greatness with his cast of returning weapons.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence
Josh Allen vs. Justin Fields Rushing Touchdowns (No Adjustment)
Josh Allen has averaged 7.6 touchdowns per season on the ground over his five seasons. Fields rushed for just two touchdowns in the 12 games he played in his first season. But came rushing onto the scene in 2022, scoring on the ground eight times in just 15 games.
The Bears brought in DJ Moore and Chase Claypool to try and bolster their receiver room and replaced David Montgomery with D’onta Foreman. None of those players should steal the spotlight from fields, who rushed for 1,143 yards on an average of 7.1 yards per rush last season.
As mentioned above, Allen returns most of the cast of characters he already had around him. The Bills brought in Damien Harris and Latavius Murray to add to the backfield-catching abilities of James Cook. Maybe Allen slows down his aggressive running style a little this year, and even if he doesn’t, I see Fields running all over (literally) the NFL again this year.
Pick: Justin Fields
