The NFL regular season kicks off 10 weeks from now! The Detroit Lions will head to Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. While we wait, there’s no better time to start getting your Underdog Pick’ Em player props picks in. Underdog is available in many states where gambling is not yet legal and where it is. It offers a great way to get involved in the skill of picking season-long player props.
Underdog Pick’ Em is a game offered on Underdog Fantasy that is centered around player stat predictions. The goal is to make a 2-5 leg entry consisting of a choice of “Higher” or “Lower” for each selected leg. To win, all selected legs must hit. If one or more of your legs pushes – goes neither higher nor lower – the entry is treated as the next viable size. Click HERE to go to Underdog and use promo code SGPN for a 100% deposit bonus of up to $100.
10 NFL Underdog Pick’ Em Player Props
Joe Burrow 33.5 Passing Touchdowns: Higher
In 2022 Joe Burrow threw 35 touchdowns in only 16 games. The Bengals’ week 17 game with the Buffalo Bills was, of course, canceled after the hit on Damar Hamlin. In 2021 Burrow threw for 34 touchdowns in a 16-game season as well.
There doesn’t appear to be much to slow down this Bengals offense. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are all back, and as of now, Joe Mixon is still on the team. Other offenses in the AFC North have taken steps forward as well, which could lead to more scoring in those six divisional games.
Justin Fields 875.5 Rushing Yards: Higher
Justin Fields became just the third quarterback (Michael Vick & Lamar Jackson) in NFL history to record 1,000 rushing yards in a single season. Fields also set the single-game rushing record with 178 yards on the ground against the Miami Dolphins.
Fields did all this while still accomplishing things through the air. He became the first quarterback to throw for three touchdowns and rush for 140 yards in a single game.
The first quarterback to throw for and rush for two touchdowns plus rush for over 100 yards in a single game. He is the only quarterback in the modern era to rush for two 60+ yard touchdowns and the only quarterback since 1925 to have three 50+ yard touchdown runs.
The list goes on and on with the things Fields has done. The point is, he’s young, explosive, and can crack off huge chunks of rushing yards in one play. Fields missed two games last season and still rushed for 1,143 yards in 15 games.
Over a 17-game season, he’d only need to average 51.5 yards per game to hit this mark. This might be the easier play on the board. Fields is my number one fantasy quarterback in 2023, and this rushing ability plays a huge part in that.
Aaron Rodgers Rushing Touchdowns 1.5: Higher
Aaron Rodgers loves his scramble little scramble touchdown runs. Last season Rodgers only made it into the end zone once, but he was half-checked out of Green Bay and ready to move on to a new home. Now in that new home in the big apple, Rodgers will play loose and free. When Rodgers is enjoying the game, he’s going to run more. His career average is 1.9 rushing touchdowns per season, making this the perfect line from Underdog.
Before 2022 Rodgers had two consecutive three-rushing touchdown seasons. In five consecutive seasons, he’s had at least one rushing touchdown, and in his last 15 years in the NFL, only two seasons has Rodgers not made it into the end zone. In 10 of those 15 seasons, it’s been at least twice. Look for Rodgers to scramble into the end zone a few times in 2023.
Nick Chubb 8.5 Rushing Touchdowns: Higher
Nick Chubb had a great season in 2022, rushing for 1,525 yards and scoring 12 rushing touchdowns. All of that, with Jacoby Brissett playing a majority of the season and Kareem Hunt sharing the backfield. Fast forward to 2022. It’s the Chubb show. Hunt is on the free agent market, and quarterback Deshaun Watson appears primed for a full season in Cleveland. The situation is perfect for Chubb to have a monster season at running back for the Browns.
Taking a look back, before he scored 12 last season, Chubb made it to the end zone eight times in just 14 games in 2021, a shocking 12 times in just 12 games played in 2020, and eight more times his previous two seasons. If Chubb can stay healthy with no other big-name backs to share with, he could double this number in 2023.
Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards 925.5: Higher
Rhamondre had a breakout campaign in 2022, rushing for 1,040 yards and five touchdowns. Stevenson quickly became the lead back for a Patriots offense without a coordinator. The Patriots have Bill O’Brien in that position this season, and Damien Harris has moved on to Buffalo.
Pierre Strong looks poised to complement Stevenson while James Robinson was signed, then released by the Patriots. Some rumors out there have Dalvin Cook joining the Patriots via free agency, but even if he does, this doesn’t scare me. This will be Stevenson’s backfield, and he’ll continue to produce.
Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards 525.5: Lower
Mostert has been in the NFL since 2015, where he started his career with the Miami Dolphins and played in one game, recording no statistics. Mostert made four stops after his time in Miami, Baltimore, Cleveland, Chicago, and San Francisco, where he spent six seasons.
During his time in San Francisco, Mostert eclipsed this mark just one time in 2019 before his return to Miami in 2022, where he put up 891 yards on the ground.
As we head into 2023, the Dolphins used a third-round pick to select Texas A&M running back Devon Achane. Jeff Wilson Jr, Myles Gaskin, and Salvon Ahmed are also back with the team. Then there are the rumors of Dalvin Cook, Miami has been the main team all along that’s been mentioned the most when it comes to Cook.
Even if Dalvin doesn’t take his talents to South Beach, Achane and the remaining backs scare me enough into thinking Mostert won’t have a repeat performance. He’s the first guy I’m selecting on the “lower” side of the coin.
Odell Beckham Jr 575.5 Receiving Yards: Lower
Beckham has been an outstanding wide receiver over the years. However, 2019 was the last time Beckham had receiving numbers like this. The newly signed Baltimore Raven missed all of 2022 after suffering a second torn ACL in the Rams’ 2021 season Super Bowl win. In that season, where he played 14 games between Cleveland and Los Angeles, Beckham accounted for 537 receiving yards, and in 2020 only had 319 before that first torn ACL.
Now you are asking a receiver who will turn 31 during the season to come back after an entire year off and two ACL tears to be a reliable target for you. Not to mention in Baltimore, you have Lamar Jackson’s rushing yards, Rashod Bateman, rookie Zay Flowers, star tight end Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely, all likely taking targets from him. Beckham will be my next “lower” option.
Devante Adams 1325.5 Receiving Yards: Higher
Mr. automatic. Will Jimmy Garoppolo be his quarterback? Will Tom Brady be his quarterback? Will you or I be his quarterback? It doesn’t matter. Devante Adams delivers. The 30-year-old wide receiver has to hit the wall eventually, but until I see that happen, I will keep counting on him to produce numbers like these.
Adams has easily hit this number in four of the last five seasons. Even though he only played in 14 games in 2020, he still hit the number. 2019 when he only played in 12 games, was the lone season he missed the number over those last five.
In all four of those seasons, Adams caught at least 100 passes, and last year even after switching teams and leaving Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers, Adams had the most targets (180) of his entire career. Of course, the 17-game schedule helps make this even more possible.
Dallas Goedert 3.5 Receiving Touchdowns: Higher
Goedert averages 3.8 touchdown receptions per season, so this line is right on track. In 2022 Goedert only played in 12 games and still managed to catch three touchdowns. In 2021 Goedert played 15 games with four touchdowns, while in 2020, he caught three only playing 11 games.
The glaring issue here is that Goedert hasn’t played a full season since his rookie campaign in 2018. However, even missing up to five games, he’s come within one touchdown catch of hitting this number. Assuming Goedert can stay healthy this year, 3.5 seems like a small number.
The 2022 Eagles were second only to the team that beat them in the Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs (496) in total points scored with 477 on the year. Quarterback Jalen Hurts had 13 rushing touchdowns and was almost unstoppable near the goal line. Teams will be prepared for that this year, and while they may still not be able to stop Hurts.
If he takes one or two of those rushing touchdowns and turns them into easy touchdown throws to his big target, Goedert will easily pass this number.
Pat Freiermuth 625.5 Receiving Yards: Higher
If there is one thing the Pittsburgh Steelers are great at doing in the NFL Draft, it’s selecting pass catchers. Freiermuth is no different, the young star tight end caught seven touchdown passes in his rookie campaign and last year followed it up with 732 receiving yards from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett. I am a big believer that Pickett takes a big step forward in year two, and that’s going to benefit guys like Freiermuth.
