UFC Vegas 76 takes place in the Apex this weekend after a week on the road. The main event features a perplexing matchup between well-established middleweight Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov, who has spent just 19 seconds in a UFC cage. There are plenty of other fights that make more sense, though, and plenty of plays that make sense for your wallet. Go here to check out TUF greatest moments.
Go here for more UFC picks!
UFC Vegas 76: Strickland vs. Magomedov – Predictions & Best Bets
Benoit St. Denis ML (+260) vs. Ismael Bonfim
This is a line that I think is wildly off. Sure, Ismael Bonfim showed that he had big finishing power in his lone UFC fight, but St. Denis’ body of work has demonstrated he could take whatever people dish out. He went toe-to-toe and took everything that Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos could throw at him. That was on short notice and up a weight class.
Not only do I think that St. Denis can take Bonfim’s best shot, but I also think he will have a significant advantage in the wrestling department. He’s shown to be able to takedown fighters much larger than him, and Bonfim doesn’t have the most flawless takedown defense. I expect St. Denis to take the grind to him and win at a huge number.
Renat Fakhretdinov ML (-190) vs. Kevin Lee
Kevin Lee returns at UFC Vegas 76 after leaving the organization for one fight. That fight saw him go back and forth with an aged Diego Sanchez. He was even briefly put on wobbly legs in that fight with a sharp counter left. Now he’ll have to step in with someone who can neutralize his wrestling and recently put Bryan Battle down with his hands. I’m not sure what’s keeping this number from being much steeper than it currently is.
Brunno Ferreira – Wins by KO (-110)
The moneyline on Ferreira is only -180, so this is a huge upgrade in number. However, I do think if Ferreira is going to win, it’s going to come by KO. He has absolute dynamite in his hands, and his counters are on point.
He’ll be fighting Nursultan Ruziboev, who takes the fight on short notice. Not only has he not had a full camp to prepare, but Ruziboev also fights with his hands a bit too low and leaves himself off balance with big shots. All those things should lead to him eating a fat counter and ending the night early.
Ivana Petrovic ML (-225) vs. Luana Carolina
Petrovic is a fighter who comes to the UFC by way of Ares FC. She was trained as a striker at first, but her grappling game has easily caught up to what she is able to do on the feet. The result was an Ares flyweight title on the heels of a rear naked choke of noted Polish grappler Ewelina Woźniak.
Her opponent, Luana Carolina, has a real issue with grappling. She’s been taken down frequently and got submitted by Muay Thai specialist Ariane Lipski. As a result, I really can’t see her path to victory. If she is getting the best of the striking early on, she’ll spend the rest of the fight on her back.
Grant Dawson ML (+100) vs. Damir Ismagulov
Damir Ismagulov has had real issues with anyone in the UFC who can grind on him and make him work. Arman Tsarukyan and Guram Kutateladze both made him work exceptionally hard against the cage. They took away a lot of his striking threat and made him look as bad as he’s ever looked.
With that blueprint laid out, I think Dawson has an easy enough time following along. He’s a large lightweight who is unlikely to ever be outworked when it comes to work against the cage. I’m not sure how much he’ll get Ismagulov down, but he should bank a ton of control time.
Melissa Gatto – Wins by (T)KO (+510)
For my home run swing this week, I love Melissa Gatto to get a finish with strikes. She has ended each of her last two wins with strikes (one with ground and pound and the other by breaking her opponent’s arm with a strike). Ariane Lipski has been finished in each of her last three losses with strikes, and that includes some fighters with far less finishing ability than Gatto.
If you’d like even more information on UFC Vegas 76, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping weekly episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
