The AFC East is set to be one of the most competitive divisions in the upcoming 2023-24 NFL season. The Buffalo Bills have won three straight divisional titles and want to make it four in a row. The New York Jets will test them this season after acquiring Aaron Rodgers via trade this offseason. Don’t count out Miami, either. They also upgraded their roster, and New England will always have a chance with the greatest coach of all time on the sidelines.
Let’s examine how the oddsmakers think the AFC will unfold. Plus, my predictions for each team and some player props could have some value this upcoming season.
AFC East Odds: Win Totals, Team Preview & Player Props For 2023 Season
Odds to Win the AFC East in 2023
Buffalo Bills (+130)
The Buffalo Bills went 13-3 last season, securing their third straight AFC divisional title. The gap between them and the Miami Dolphins was 4.5 games, and frankly, it shouldn’t even have been that close.
I think you can still argue that the Bills have the best QB in the division with Josh Allen. He is coming off a year where he racked up 5,045 total yards and 42 touchdowns. Allen also finished third in MVP voting last season. He comes into the 2023 season tied with Joe Burrow and reigning winner Patrick Mahomes for the best MVP odds (+700).
Buffalo did lose star linebacker Tremaine Edmunds who signed a nice large contract this offseason with the Chicago Bears. The Bills do get back a healthy Von Miller. They also drafted tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round to give Josh Allen some extra help.
New York Jets (+250)
The New York Jets are coming off one of the best drafts the organization has ever had. It amounted to the Jets having one of the best defenses in the league last year. They gave up the fourth-fewest points and yards per game in the league, mainly due to the impact that defensive rookie of the year shutdown corner Sauce Gardner brought to the team.
Now, while the Jets’ defense kept them in games, the offense was awful. It resulted in a 7-10 record with another last-place finish. Aaron Rodgers coming in and being the leader should provide some stability and experience that the Jets didn’t have last year.
Six of the ten Jet losses came in one-score games, and they also ended the year on a six-game losing streak after starting 6-4. There is no question that the Jets have the talent. They have to put it together and sustain it for 18 weeks.
Miami Dolphins (+290)
The Dolphins were the talk of the NFL in the early part of the year because of their red-hot offense. They had solid wins against the Bills, Patriots, and Ravens in the first half of the year before quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered his first of many injuries. All the momentum was lost, and the Dolphins finished the season with a 9-8 record.
The two most important pieces for this Miami offense are both wide receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. They combined for 3,066 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns last season. The organization also went out and acquired linebacker Bradley Chubb in the middle of last season. This offseason, the Dolphins made a move to pick up Super Bowl champion Jalen Ramsey to pair up with Xavien Howard in their secondary.
If the Dolphins want to contend for the division or make a deep run in the playoffs, they will need Tua to stay healthy. They did bring in Mike White from the Jets to serve as his backup in case things go left once again.
New England Patriots (+750)
The Patriots suffered last season from having non-offensive coaches run the offense, and it did not work. Thankfully they bring back former offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien to fix the problem. I think he can do a good job of getting the best out of former first-round quarterback Mac Jones to give this team a chance to win.
As bad as the Patriots’ offense was last season, their defense wasn’t terrible. It ranked eighth in yards per game and 11th in points against per game while also recording the third-most sacks per game. I love their first-round pick, corner Christian Gonzalez. He should make an immediate impact as a starter this season.
One area I think they can build on is their defense. New England was 7-0 in games last season where their opponent scored fewer than 20 points but 1-9 in games where the defense surrendered at least 20 points. Getting a rhythm and stability on offense should be the clear priority for the team this season.
2023 AFC East Team Win Totals
Buffalo Bills: Over/Under 10.5 Wins
The one knock on the Bills is that they have yet to get over that playoff hump. Getting through the regular season has not been an issue for them. The Bills were just 4-2 against the AFC East last season compared to 9-1 against all other opponents.
I feel like a lot of people will be all over this over for the Bills’ win total this season just because they have won an average of 12.3 games over the last three seasons and have not won fewer than 11 games during the same stretch.
Yes, the Bills went 13-3 last season, but when you dive into their schedule, it’s very changeling. Look at their road games, Jets, Bengals, Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins. Weeks 9 through 16 are extremely tough. The Bills only have one easy road game, in my opinion.
My Pick: Pass/Lean Under 10.5 Wins
New York Jets: Over/Under 9.5 Wins
What really stands out to me with the Jets this season is that they have six stand-alone games—only two 1:00 pm games before December. Eight of the first 11 teams are playoff teams. There is obviously a lot of buzz around this team, especially now with the addition of Aaron Rodgers.
I’m extremely confident Rodgers will make the Jets a better football team. It’s not just a minor change. The Jets go from starting a backup in either Mike White or Zach Wilson to a two-time MVP not far removed either. I’m not one of those people that believe Rodgers has fallen off. I think we saw inexperience in the Packers’ WR room last season, not him.
We know the Jets have an elite defense. They’re only underdogs in five games, and two are at home. Chiefs are only a point favorite at Metlife. This is the highest win total for the Jets since 2011. Last year the Jets won seven games with essentially not one real QB. I believe Rodgers is a game upgrade.
My Pick: Over 9.5 Wins
Miami Dolphins: Over/Under 9.5 Wins
The Dolphins are going all in by taking on huge contracts and trading for stars. They returned an electric offense and added Jalen Ramsey to their defense. They have a brilliant young head coach in Mike McDaniel.
Looking at their schedule, their win total was a pass for me—so many unknowns with this team. Tua keeps missing time; this is a completely different team without him. They have a rough schedule early on the road. In fact, all of their road games are tough.
A lot of things went right for them early on last year, and then they went on that losing streak toward the end of the season. I think the Dolphins are a tough team to figure out, but when Tua is healthy, the Dolphins went 7-4 straight up.
My Pick: Pass/Under 9.5 Wins
New England Patriots: Over/Under 7.5 Wins
The Patriots may be the best team favored to finish last in their division. They went 8-9 last season, and like all the other teams in the AFC East, they have a really tough schedule. Undoubtedly, I believe this team will be well-coached and come to play every game.
The Patriots are only favored in two to three games this upcoming season. I think bringing back Bill O’Brien will help Mac Jones, but not to the level where they are contenders for the division.
My Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
2023 AFC East Player Props
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen Over/Under 4,250.5 Passing Yards
The line seems extremely low. Allen has gone over this number in three straight years. You could argue Allen was compromised for the back half of the season. With the extra game added to everyone’s schedule and the Bills being such a pass-heavy team, I expect Allen to go way over this number.
My Pick: Over 4,250.5 Passing Yards
New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 3,875.5 Passing Yards
As I said earlier, I believe adding Aaron Rodgers is a huge addition to this team. I think Rodgers will set the Jets’ all-time passing record. He’s definitely going to have a better season than he did last year. His weapons on this Jet team are far better than what he was working with last season. Since 2016, Rodgers has gone over this number in five of the seven years. I expect him to have a huge year passing the rock.
My Pick: Over 3,875.5 Passing Yards
Miami Dolphins: Jaylen Waddle Over/Under 1,050.5 Receiving Yards
If you haven’t been paying attention to the Dolphins these past two years, you better start. This offense is fireworks every time, mainly because of their receiving core, which includes young star, Jaylen Waddle. In his first two seasons in the league, Waddle has caught passes for 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons. In a year where I think Tua can stay healthier, I expect much more output and balls for Waddle.
My Pick: Over 1,050.5 Receiving Yards
New England Patriots: Defensive Rookie of the Year Christian Gonzalez
Somehow Christian Gonzalez fell from the top 10 right into the laps of the New England Patriots at 17th overall—a perfect fit for Bill Belichick to bolster his defense with arguably the best CB in the class.
Gonzalez transferred from Colorado to Orgenon and immediately became one of the Ducks’ key parts to their defense last season. He received 1st-team All-Pac-12 after recording 45 tackles and seven pass breakups to go along with four picks.
Gonzalez is not your normal cornerback. He’s 6-2 and has a lot of length. Another good sign for this rookie is that he had a better 40-yard dash time and vertical jump than last year’s winner, Sauce Gardner.
I think this was the perfect landing spot for Gonzalez. He enters the NFL with a chip on his shoulder after falling as far as he did. Goes to a very defensive-minded system like New England and will be challenged by some of the NFL’s toughest quarterbacks. If Gonzalez plays well against them, I think he offers bettors a high ceiling in the market.
My Pick: Christian Gonzalez Defensive Rookie of the Year (+1100)
