We are tied at 1-1 and headed to Miami for a two-game set. Both teams have gone through a wide range of emotions in the first two games. The big question is who will make the better adjustments to be able to inch closer to being the NBA Champion. Below I run through a few on each side, followed by some player props and a best bet. Please shop around to find the best number and bet responsibly.
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Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat – Game 3 Preview And Best Bets
Why Denver Will Win Game 3?
Offensively, Denver has been dominant in both games. They scored 125.6 points per 100 possessions in Game 2 but fell a Jamal Murray three away from overtime. If that shot falls, I think we are looking at a 2-0 Denver lead, but that was not the case. Defensively is where Denver will win this game.
They allowed Miami to be comfortable and see some shots fall due to poor communication and lack of effort. After a few days of watching that on film and being questioned by the media, there should be a sense of urgency in the Nuggets. Miami has struggled to defend Denver in transition throughout the first two games.
They have been applying more full-court pressure and falling back into a zone to prevent Denver from running. The offensive numbers will tell you it hasn’t affected Denver, but it certainly has.
Delaying the Denver offense forces them to get into their offensive sets later. The offense is predicated on rhythm and timing, so starting late causes more unforced turnovers. Miami scored 19 points off turnovers in Game 2 after only tallying nine in Game 1.
That is a stat that has been indicative of how well Miami has played. Denver must take better care of the ball and not allow Miami to get easy buckets as far as the pressure from Miami. That goes back to my main key to victory for Denver: defense. It is much harder to pressure off of a miss than it is a make. The more locked in the defense is, the easier baskets Denver can get in transition or in the half-court.
Why Miami Will Win Game 3?
The simple answer to this is the continued hot shooting from deep. The Heat offense has been on fire without Jimmy Butler being effective from a scoring perspective. I know it is a boring thing to say, and basketball fans do not want o hear this, but defense is the key for Miami. Denver has been dominant in the first two games and scored at will.
Even in the patent zone that Miami runs, Denver is scoring at a higher clip per possession than they are against man-to-man. The sample size, of course, is minimal due to how few zone possessions Miami runs, but overall it has not been effective. Limiting them in transition and continuing to defend the three at a high level will give the Heat a very good chance to win this game.
The Kevin Love adjustment allowed the Heat to be able to control Aaron Gordon on the interior. He went from 12 points in the first quarter of Game 1 to 12 points for the entire game in Game 2. There has been a drastic change to the Heat when Bam goes to the bench. The Zeller minutes have been atrocious, which is something Spo will have to configure to help on both ends when Bam is resting.
The consistency of the bench and role players has been up and down, but the Heat seem to get at several big role-player games every series. The play of Martin, Strus, and Lowry has to be up a notch to match what Denver will do to avenge their first home playoff loss.
Who Will Win Game 3?
Denver. If you like Denver like I do, play them on the money line rather than laying the points. The juice is a little higher, obviously, but I believe it is a better bet. You don’t want to lay the 2.5 and have to sweat a late Miami possession where they are down a possession or two. Michael Malone and veteran forward Jeff Green called the team out for their lack of effort and intensity in Game 2.
I think it is safe to say we will see a more laser-focused team after losing their first home game since March 30th. The resilience is what has set Denver apart from any other team this postseason. They lost sight of that in the fourth, which led to a historic quarter by the Heat, who scored 36 points on 20 possessions.
The defense has been the underrated part of the Denver postseason run, and that is what they need to win this game. In Game 1, there was an emphasis on running Miami off of the three-point line, which they got away from in Game 2. I think there will be a big adjustment when it comes to the Denver defense tonight. The role players must come to play while also limiting the Heat role players.
The Nuggets bench was outscoring Miami 20-5 early in Game 2. In the second half, Miami’s bench returned the favor and outplayed the Denver bench 19-6. Controlling the role players and running the Heat off the three-point line will be key to a Denver win, and all of that can be fixed with increased effort and intensity.
Denver Nuggets Player Props
Bruce Brown Over 10.5 Pts
Bruce Brown ended the game with a +14 and was one of only two Denver players with a positive +/- Interested to see how Malone adjusts MPJ and KCP minutes, as they’ve been underwhelming in both games. Brown gives them an extra ball handler and shot creator, not to mention his defense being better than MPJ.
I would expect his minutes to stay around 25-27, and when he plays in that range or higher, he’s over in nine of the ten applied games. I’d expect the ball to be in his hand a lot more to relieve some pressure from Jamal Murray having to initiate everything. Bruce has repeatedly shown what he can do as a facilitator, and I believe that will be on full display tonight.
Jamal Murray Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assist
He is over this number in 4 of the last five games. Miami’s lack of size is to his benefit when it comes to crashing the glass. He pulled down six rebounds in Game 1 and four in Game 2 but had ample opportunities to grab more. I think he’s good for 5-6 rebounds in this game, leaving us at 7-8 assists. He has had 5+ rebounds in 11 of 17 playoff games and 6+ in seven of those games.
Murray had 7+ assists in seven of the 17 playoff games, but the way Miami plays defense on the ball, as far as blitzing him and trying to get the ball out of his hands, increases the assist upside. He is coming off back-to-back double-digit assist games, raising his floor on the rebounds. I have been playing this all playoff long, and I see no reason to get off it now.
Miami Heat Player Props
Bam Adebayo Over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists
The ball will continue to be in his hands due to Jokic being his primary defender. On the dribble handoffs and pick and rolls, Jokic was in drop coverage, allowing Bam to find his jumper. Once he saw his jumper fall, Denver crowded him a little, which allowed him to find guys on back cuts and Jimmy in the post. He landed 13 in Game 2, but the opportunities were there all night.
He’s over this number in 4 of the last eight playoff games. Miami will not find size anytime soon, so he has to continue to be on the glass at a high level. He has tallied four or more assists in his last four games while grabbing ten or more rebounds in three of those games. Bam is a vital part of what Miami wants to do offensively, and that begins with his rebounding, followed by his playmaking.
Jimmy Butler Under 25.5 Points
The Denver defense has been excellent when it comes to defending Butler. He had a playoff low of 13 points in Game 1 and ended Game 2 with 21. His ending point total in Game 2 is a little misleading after being horrible for almost 3.5 quarters. He has looked timid sometimes and is driving to pass instead of scoring. That is evident by the lack of free throws and his uptick in three-point attempts.
I guess his injury is more serious than what we know, and he is just playing through it, but that does not detract from what Denver has done defensively. They are crowding his space and making him see multiple defenders every possession. He has failed to go over this number in five of the last seven games.
