After having over a week off to chill, the Denver Nuggets finally get back on the court on Thursday to tip off the 2023 NBA Finals. Their unlikely opponent, the #8-seeded Miami Heat, had to battle through the play-in tournament just to earn the right to enter the postseason. Coming off a grueling seven-game series against the Boston Celtics that just ended on Monday, the Heat will be hoping that the Nuggets won’t just be rested but also rusted heading into the NBA Finals Game 1.
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NBA Finals Game 1 Betting Preview
As alluded to, this will be the classic ‘rest vs. rust’ debate played out on the hardwood in the NBA Finals Game 1. Still, I’d rather take my chances and be in the Nuggets’ position. They are healthy, rested, and playing on their home court. At elevation, no less. Miami is still banged up. Tyler Herro hopes to be back by Game 3. Not only have the Heat just finished off the Celtics this past Monday but now they have to get acclimated to the elevation change.
Denver is one of the best teams against the spread these playoffs, covering 60% of the time. However, I think the 8.5-point line set for Game 1 is too high. Denver only beat that once against the Lakers. This could especially be true if they have some rust to work off in the early goings of the game. So take Miami +8.5 at -110 as your ATS pick.
However, I do expect Denver to win this game. They are just too deep, too talented, too healthy, and have the advantage in top-tier, superstar talent. Miami has to take the court on minimal rest and preparation time against a team undefeated at home during the playoffs. Denver -360 is my moneyline pick.
In the playoffs, Miami is covering the over 61.1% of the time. However, they went under the last four games of the Celtics series. While Denver is a high-scoring team, I think Game 1 will be a feeling-out process for both teams. So please give me the Under 219 at -110 as my official pick.
Bam Adebayo – Miami – Under 16.5 points (-125)
Miami’s big man Bam Adebayo has been struggling throughout these playoffs. He is averaging 16.8 PPG after going for 20.4 per contest in the regular season. Even worse, he hasn’t topped the 16.5-point mark since Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. So now he gets to haul his ass up and down the court, trying to keep Nikola Jokic in check in the thin air of Denver.
Duncan Robinson – Miami – Over 8.5 points (-110)
I think the 8.5-point line is too low for Duncan Robinson, so let’s hammer the over. He’s topped this mark in three straight games and five of six. While he’s a bit of a boom-or-bust player, he’s seen his role grow – and likewise, his production – as the playoffs have worn on. I think he can get to at least nine for us on Thursday.
Nikola Jokic – Denver – Yes to Triple Double (+100)
Nikola Jokic averages 29.9 PPG, 13.3 RPG, and 10.3 APG in the playoffs. So now we’re being offered even money for him to have an average game and post a triple-double in Game 1. I’ll take it! Even if the scoring isn’t off the charts, he’ll get to double figures, and his rebounds and assists should be there. I expect the big man to be fired up and ready to roll in his first NBA Finals.
Jamal Murray – Denver – Over 3.5 Threes (+110)
Jamal Murray went 0-4 from deep against the Lakers in the Nuggets win to close out the series. However, he hit at least four three-pointers in the four games leading up to that. He’s a proven playoff performer, a guy who takes his game to the next level when the lights are the brightest. So look for him to come out gunning in Game 1.
