We are down to the final two teams to decide who will hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy and be crowned the 2023 NBA Champions! As part of the excitement, the Sports Gambling Podcast Network is hosting its annual NBA Finals Props Contest. The winner takes home a $100 Gift Card to the SGPN Merch Store! Below are my picks for the SGPN NBA Finals Props Contest.
How To Enter The NBA Finals Prop Contest:
- Go to your app store and download the SGPN App
- Go to the Contest Tab on the left side
- Find NBA Finals Prop Contest
- Subscribe To The Sports Gambling Podcast & NBA Gambling Podcast YouTube Channels
- Make Your Picks and sweat out your picks!
Contest Rules
- Answer ALL Series-Long Props AND Tiebreaker Before Game 1
- Return Prior To Each Game To Answer Game-Specific Props
- Pay Attention To Point Values For Each Question/Answer
2023 NBA Finals Props Contest
Series-Long Props
1. Champion (+10 Points)
Pick: Miami Heat
The world once again seems to be doubting the Miami Heat after running through the Eastern Conference as an 8th seed. Further, Miami Heat are battle tested as they took down the #1 seed, Milwaukee Bucks, in five games in the first round. Additionally, the Heat beat the #2 seed, the Boston Celtics, in a seven-game series.
Yes, the Heat were close to making history by blowing a 3-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, this team has an IT factor. They are well coached by Erik Spoelstra and have a group of hungry players led by superstar Jimmy Butler ready to prove the world wrong. This will be the Miami Heat’s second final appearance in four seasons.
2. Series Length (+5 Points)
Pick: 6 Games
Despite the Denver Nuggets having a home-court advantage, I do expect the Miami Heat to win either Game 1 or Game 2 in Denver. In fact, the Heat have won each Game 1 in the playoffs thus far, and they have all been on the road. Additionally, I believe the Heat will defend home court and have closed all three series thus far on the road in convincing fashion.
3. Finals MVP (+5 Points)
Pick: Jimmy Butler
Even though Jimmy Butler was inconsistent in the Eastern Conference Finals, Butler stepped when the lights shined the brightest. Sure, some will argue that Caleb Martin deserved to win the Eastern Conference Finals MVP, but Butler fills up the stat sheet that gives him the edge. Thus far this postseason, Butler is averaging 28.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. It starts and ends with Butler. If the Heat wins the championship, Butler should be the Finals MVP.
4. Finals Leading Scorer (+3)
Pick: Nikola Jokic
The two-time MVP, Nikola Jokic, is a matchup nightmare for any team in the NBA. Jokic possesses the skill and talent of a big man that we have never seen before. In this postseason, Jokic is averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists. These types of numbers are unheard of.
However, in the postseason, Jokic is playing significantly more minutes and getting significantly more shot attempts. As a result, Jokic is averaging 5.2 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Lastly, Jokic is leading the Nuggets in playoffs in points per game, minutes per game, and field goals made per game.
Game One Prop Bets
1. Denver -8.5 (+1) or Miami +8.5 (+1)
Pick: Denver -8.5
The Denver Nuggets have a long layoff before Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The Nuggets played their last playoff game on Monday, May 22nd, when they swept the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.
Some will argue about the rest and rust for the Nuggets, but the advantage Nuggets will have is teams coming into Denver to play in altitude. The Miami Heat will get only two days of rest, and coming off an emotional seven-game series, I expect the Nuggets to pull away late and cover the 8.5 spread.
2. 218.5 Total Points Over (+1) or Under (+1)
Pick: Over 218.5
In the NBA Playoffs, both teams are a combined 4-2 to the Over in Game 1 of each series. The first game of a series is usually a feel-it-out type of game and more free-flowing. Coach Mike Malone has stressed he wants the Nuggets to play with pace, and I believe game one is where they will push the pace and use this to their advantage to tire out the Heat.
If the Heat wants to keep up with the scoring, they will also look to get out in transition and score points. Thus far in the playoffs, the Heat in Game 1s are allowing their opponents to average 111.3 points per game while averaging 120.3 points per game themselves.
3. Jimmy Butler Over 27.5 Points Over (+1) or Under (+1)
Pick: Over 27.5 Points
In three Game 1’s in this postseason, Jimmy Butler is averaging 31.7 points per game and has gone over this projection in two out of the three Game 1’s. If the Miami Heat are going to keep up with the scoring in Game 1, Butler is going to have to score for the Heat to contend in the game.
4. Jamal Murray 3.5 3-Pointers Over (+1) or Under (+1)
Pick: Over
With all the attention that Nikola Jokic demands on the offensive end of the court, Murray has been able to take advantage, especially with his three-point shooting. In fact, in the playoffs, Murray is shooting it at a 39.8% rate from beyond the arc. Further, Murray has made at least four three-pointers in all three Game 1’s of the playoffs. So I expect the Nuggets to come out firing on all cylinders, led by Murray from the three-point line.
5. Nikola Jokic Triple-Double? Yes (+1) or No (+1)
Pick: Yes
It has been quite some time since we have seen a big man AVERAGE a triple-double, not only during the regular season but also in the playoffs. I won’t expand too much on this prop bet. Anytime ‘The Joker’ steps on a basketball court, he is a threat to record a triple-double. In this postseason, Jokic has recorded a triple-double in eight out of the 15 playoff games for the Nuggets. But, again, that’s a triple-double, not a double-double!
