Happy Memorial Day! Huge thank you to all who serve or have served and put their life on the line for this country. Without your sacrifice and dedication, none of us will be in a position to do what we love to do. For that, I and the entire SGPN family are thankful.
An unconventional way to get to Game 7, but we are here! This series has been a roller coaster for both sides and entertaining, to say the least. Experience and success in these Game 7s. On the other side, the Heat have one of the best coaches in history, with one of the more fearless and successful playoff players in Heat history.
On this day last year, Boston defeated Miami (100-96) in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. That game came down to a Butler three-point attempt, but the narratives are completely different in 2023.
This mini rivalry has lived up to the hype over the years, and with history on the line on both sides, we are in for an incredible Game 7. Can Boston be the first team ever to come back from down 0-3? Or will Miami continue its brilliance while being the second 8-seed to make the NBA Finals? Let’s break it down and see if we can get on the right side of this one.
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Heat vs. Celtics: Game 7 Betting Preview
Why Miami Will Win?
In the postseason, Miami has shot 46% or higher four times, and three of those have been in this series. Can they continue to shoot this well? It is highly unlikely, but that is not their only path to victory. Miami has won games in numerous ways, one of which is when the shots are not falling.
The obvious reason why Miami will win is that Jimmy and Bam don’t combine to shoot 9/39, and the overall defensive effort is better. I do not doubt that both guys bounce back in Game 7, but what will win them the game is their role players. There should be a big emphasis on getting Bam going offensively because it loosens the Boston defense when his 15 to 17-foot jumper is falling. They are also 6-0 in the postseason when Bam scores 20 or more points.
Slowing the pace down will serve Miami well, as their rotation is extremely tight. In addition, I think that we see a lot more zone from Miami, which gave Boston problems in the first three games (37.9 effective field goal%) and hindered them late in Game 6. Although Miami is better suited to slow the game down, they should look to run-off turnovers.
They have dominated points off turnovers in the playoffs, which directly represents their offense knowing when to run. So the uglier this game is, the better it is for the Heat. If they can keep it close, Boston is notorious for not performing well in the clutch, while Miami thrives late in games. Per NBA.com, Boston, in crunch time of this series, is shooting 2/15 (0-8 from 3), while Miami is scoring 1.3 points per possession in the clutch.
Why Boston Will Win?
The turnovers must be limited for Boston to win this game. Miami is averaging 17.3 points off turnovers this season, and it helps them not have to go against a set Boston defense which is pretty damn good. Miami has no interior depth and relies a lot on Bam for rim protection. Boston is +20 as far as points in the paint go, and their constant attack only opens up for more open threes.
Defensively it has been better from Boston, but Miami is still getting too many open looks. The double-screen that Miami runs for Vincent and Strus (or Duncan at times) has given Boston fits. They are confused about their switches which allow constant open looks from three good shooters.
That needs to be solved from the tip because the last thing you want in a big game is for the Heat role players to gain confidence. So running them off the three-point line and forcing tough mid-range shots is a win, no matter if it’s a make.
Boston has been top ten this season in both offensive and defensive ratings. It’s time for them to put together a complete game on both sides of the ball. Mazzula also has to stay out of the way and stop with the cute rotations and weird rest times. Jayson Tatum should play this entire game, meaning DO NOT REST HIM TO START THE 4th quarter (sorry for yelling).
We’ve seen too many times the offense gets stagnant and can’t produce when Tatum is on the bench. That is a direct result of their 3rd quarter leads going from 10 to 5 instead of rising from 10 to 15.
Miami Heat Player Props
Max Strus Over 10.5 Points
Strus is the X-factor in this game. He started hot in Game 6 but cooled off late, which could partly be his focus on the defensive end. Strus has gone over this number in only two games but landed on 10 points in two other games. He also has something that these other role players do not have, and that is big game experience.
In last year’s Game 7, he did not play well (in 35 minutes), but I like that as fuel to get him going in this spot. On the road this series, he is shooting 6/14 from deep and has had more success in Boston than at home. In order for Miami to be in this game, Strus has to come out firing, which is why this is my top player prop in this slate.
Duncan Robinson 3+ 3’s Made (+250)
Shooters shoot, and I expect that to be Robinson’s mindset going into Game 7 despite missing two key threes in Game 6. The rotation has shrunk the deeper we got into the series, and Robinson has benefitted. He has made three or more three-pointers in three of the six games (don’t say that too fast). Seems average, but when you dig a little deeper, he only played six minutes in Game 1 and ten in Game 4.
The only thing that kept Miami from getting blown out in Game 6 was their ability to shoot the ball from deep. So why not get your best three-point shooter as many looks as possible? That is exactly why I think this prop has value and could cash in the first half for us.
Boston Celtics Player Props
Marcus Smart Over 23.5 P+R+A
It can be debated that Smart is the main reason the Celtics are in this position. He has had back-to-back 20-point outings, and his on-ball defense has been phenomenal. He is over this number in four of the six games while not even distributing the ball well. The Malcolm Brogdon injury will keep him on the floor more, raising his floor when trying to get to this number. In addition, Mazzula has used Smart more in the post, allowing him the ability to score and assist at a high level.
The turnovers have been an issue for the entire Boston team but specifically for Smart. If he can turn half of those into assists, he is poised for a similar performance to Game 1. Last year, Smart finished with 24 points, nine rebounds, and five assists, so the stage will not be too high for him. He also has some redeeming to do with how he played In their recent home Game 7 against the 76ers, where he only scored seven points on 3/7 shooting.
Robert Williams Over 12.5 P+R
The minutes have been inconsistent in this series, but he has been phenomenal on both sides when given the opportunity. Despite playing less than 20 minutes in three games, Williams has surpassed this number in four of the six games. In addition, the hand injury late in Game 6 seems to be good, as he returned and played with the same level of aggression.
If he gets near the rim with the ball in his hand, he is as close to automatic as it gets, shooting 25/32 from the field. He has had 7+ rebounds in three of the six games, and his energy has been taken up a notch. There is a case that he could walk into a double-double performance with how well he has been playing.
Who Will Win?
The experience and newfound confidence are why I love Boston in this spot. In the Tatum and Brown era, Boston is 5-1 in Game 7s. The fact they were able to win Game 6 and not shoot well shows what they are capable of on an off night. Despite the home record being what it is, the shots fall when they are in that building. They shot 37.8% from deep this year at home, but in this series, they are 33%.
Only two players made threes in Game 6 (no name, Tatum or Brown), and the Celtics got the win. But, with all of the momentum going their way and the home crowd behind them, I expect a big night from deep.
The story with the Celtics all year has been how well they shoot the three. They are 38-2 when shooting 40% or higher, so is it as simple as making the threes? Somewhat, but the defense has to stay engaged and active. They were doing a great job of making Butler see multiple defenders and keeping him off the line during this three-game win streak.
Through the first three games, Miami scored 1.25 points per possession, but since the Celtics’ defensive intensity has amped up, they have held Miami to 1.09 points per possession in Games 4-6. With great defense leading to easy baskets and the three balls falling, I think Boston makes history and wins by double digits.
Bet: Boston -7
