After an extensive campaign, we’ve finally reached the English Premier League Final Weekend of the season!
For soccer bettors, the final day offers a unique challenge: betting on matches that all kick off simultaneously. While there’s little to be decided at the top, the relegation battle still hangs in the balance. Everton, Leeds United, and Leicester City are all fighting to stay out of the final two spots.
But which matches offer bettors the best value amongst all 10? Let’s dive into my Premier League Final Weekend Bets – odds come courtesy of BetRivers and are reflective at the time of writing.
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English Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Four Best Bets for Championship Sunday
Best Bet No. 1 – Arsenal Goal-Line (-1.5, -106) vs. Wolves
Wolves are 0-2-8 (W-D-L) in 10 road matches against sides with a positive expected goal differential per 90 minutes at home, per fbref.com. They own a -1.36 expected goal differential per 90 minutes in those matches.
Meanwhile, Arsenal owns a +1.18 home expected goal differential per 90 minutes. Remove matches against Manchester City, Brighton & Hove Albion, and Newcastle – the only sides with a positive road expected goal differential – and the figure rises to +1.46 expected goal differential per 90.
Lay the goals at -120 or better.
Best Bet No. 2 – Brentford Goal-Line (+1, -129) vs. Manchester City
Brentford won’t see much of the ball against a City side that already has the title locked up, but that’s not an issue. In games this season where the Bees have 49 percent or less possession, they’re 11-7-5 (W-D-L), including 6-3-2 (W-D-L) at home.
In the latter set of matches, Brentford has a +0.52 expected goal differential per 90 minutes to pair with a +0.64 home expected goal differential per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
Given City is north of 0.5 xGD/90 worse away from home AND has two finals ahead of them, take the hosts to do no worse than a one-goal defeat at -135 or better.
Best Bet No. 3 – Crystal Palace Moneyline (-132) vs. Nottingham Forest
Since Roy Hodgson took over, Palace is 3-1-0 (W-D-L) at Selhurst Park with a +0.75 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
Heck, just remove a fluky home performance against Fulham, and Palace’s total expected home goal differential per 90 minutes moves from -0.21 to -0.11, per fbref.com.
Forest has only five results in 18 road fixtures this season and is safe from relegation after winning against Arsenal.
Motivation is clearly with Palace to deliver a positive home result for their home fans after a disappointing season. Take the hosts at -145 or better.
Best Bet No. 4 – Leeds United-Tottenham Over 4.5 Goals (+335) (0.25 unit)
What’s a final day without an adventurous flier?
Spurs have seen 10 of 18 road fixtures reach four goals. While Leeds has seen eight of 18 home matches do the same. Leeds has to go for it, which will play right into Tottenham’s counter-attack. They’re creating 1.4 xG per 90 when seeing a minority of the possession, per fbref.com.
That said, Spurs are 0.46 xGA per 90 worse away from home. Given they conceded four big chances and 2.41 expected goals on target (xGOT) in the reverse fixture at home, expect the Leeds attack to bag a few goals.
Back this alt over at +300 or better.
