Würth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway NASCAR Best Bets and DraftKings DFS Picks

Würth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway NASCAR Best Bets and DraftKings DFS Picks
Würth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway NASCAR Best Bets and DraftKings DFS Picks

NASCAR takes on the Monster Mile at Dover Motor Speedway this week. Talladega is in the rearview mirror as Kyle Busch grabbed his second win of the season, locking him into this year’s playoff field. Hendrick driver Alex Bowman was injured Tuesday evening in a sprint car accident and will miss 3-4 weeks with a fractured vertebra. Josh Berry, who most recently filled in for Chase Elliott, will now step in for Bowman.

Dover Motor Speedway, known as the “Monster Mile,” is a 1-mile concrete track that races fast. Miles the Monster is a 46-foot monument outside of the track. A warning to competitors this track will chew you up and spit you out. As we do each week, I’ll give you my five favorite bets using a budget of $5,000.

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Underdog Deposit BonusWürth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway NASCAR Best Bets

$1,000 – Chase Elliott Over William Byron (-120 Caesars Sportsbook)

Elliott is the king of concrete tracks. In his 12 starts at Dover six times, he’s finished inside of the top three—nine times inside of the top five. Byron has also had some success here, with two fourth-place finishes in his last three races. However, in their eight races head to head on this track, Byron had only won the matchup twice when Elliott had an engine issue and got involved in a wreck.

Elliott has also historically done well on the other two concrete tracks on the schedule. He also had great runs at Bristol and won the Nashville race last season. However, last season after an excellent start to the year with his second win in the Martinsville race, Byron started to trail off. This season he has two wins by Phoenix but has only finished better than 13th in two of the last six races.

$1,500 – Brad Keselowski Over Chase Briscoe (-120 Caesars Sportsbook)

There isn’t a track that’s exactly comparable to Dover; there’s nothing else like it. You can look at the intermediate-sized tracks and take things from those races. At Auto Club, Briscoe finished 20th and Las Vegas 28th. Those results were on pure speed. Not a wreck, mechanical problem, or pit issue.

As I joke on the NASCAR GAMBLING PODCAST, BJ McLeod almost kept up with Briscoe. Recently, a few short flat tracks have given the illusion that Briscoe has figured things out. Unfortunately, I don’t see that, and I think he reverts to having a bad day on speed.

Keselowski finished seventh at Auto Club and 17th at Las Vegas. The Roush Fenway Keselowski team has continued to show improvements. Going back to Bristol last season, Keselowski likely would have won if it wasn’t for a blown tire while leading late. His teammate Christopher Buescher went on to win that race, and Keselowski recovered to finish a spot ahead of Briscoe.

$1,000 Chris Buescher Over Chase Briscoe (-120 Barstool Sportsbook)

For almost all the same reasons, I will continue my full fade of Chase Briscoe. Chris Buescher has had some very solid results here at Dover Motor Speedway. Last season he scored an eighth-place finish, scoring stage points in both stages and leading 18 laps early on. In his last four races here, all with Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, Buescher hasn’t finished worse than 17th.

$1000 – Chevrolet Winning Manufacturer (+100 Barstool Sportsbook)

Chevrolet has won 12 of the last 20 races at Dover, including the last two. Hendrick Motorsports alone has won 22 Cup series races at Dover Motor Speedway, including the last two races here with Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman.

As you look through the odds for this week’s race, Larson, Byron, and Elliott take the top three places in Hendrick Chevrolets. Then, throw in drivers like Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain. That’s more than enough to give me faith in this bet, especially when some other books are offering this at -110 odds.

$500 – Chase Elliott to Win (+800 Barstool Sportsbook)

As mentioned above, Chase Elliott is good at Dover. Hendrick Motorsports is also good at Dover. Those two things, along with Elliott’s need to get to victory lane to put himself into the playoffs after missing six races with that broken Tibia. I’m looking for Elliott to go back-to-back at Dover Motor Speedway.

Würth 400 DraftKings DFS Driver to Watch

Chase Elliott ($10,800)

I can’t leave him off of this list after talking him up in the betting section. In addition to his great finishes here, Elliott knows how to lead laps. Last season he led 73 laps on his way to victory lane. He’s led laps at Dover in five different races, including 145 laps in May of 2019 and 138 laps in October of 2019. Elliott, Hendrick, Chevrolet, Dover. The perfect pairing to rack up DFS points.

Bubba Wallace ($8,000)

Bubba is an under-the-radar driver to keep an eye on this week. In his two starts with 23XI racing at Dover, Wallace has finishes of 11th and 16th. When you look at how well Bubba ran at Las Vegas this spring, finishing in fourth place. Along with having the fastest car at both Kansas Speedway races and winning the fall event there last season, Bubba could be this weekend’s secret weapon.

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