The English Premier League season is nearing its conclusion, with races left both at the top and the bottom.
But which teams could see either positive or negative regression based on their underlying metrics? Below, we’ll outline how each team is performing. This is in an effort to help bettors identify market targets for the remainder of the season.
All metrics come courtesy of fotmob.com.
English Premier League Predictions
Positive Regression Candidates
Manchester United, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Leeds United, Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, Southampton
Spotlight: Manchester United
Bad luck has arrived in spades for Manchester United, who have seen a lot of bad bounces away from home.
Through their first 29 Premier League fixtures, manager Erik ten Hag’s squad has posted a +7 goal differential and +6 non-penalty goal differential. However, that comes against a +12.01 expected goals-on-target (xGOT) differential along with a +11 non-penalty xGOT differential.
Most of that bad luck has come away from home, where the Red Devils own a -12 non-penalty goal differential against a -4.39 npxGOT differential. Take out the fluky 7-0 thrashing against Liverpool, and bettors will find United has a -5 non-penalty goal differential against a -1.3 npxGOT differential.
With key defensive midfielder Casemiro returning to the lineup beginning with a road fixture against Nottingham Forest, expect United to see some luck away from home.
While the Saints are clearly amongst the worst teams in the Premier League talent-wise, their metrics suggest they’re an above-average defense that has experienced some poor bounces.
In 30 matches, Southampton has conceded 50 goals against 32.23 npxGOT. Here’s the breakdown at home and on the road:
- At Home: 27 non-penalty goals against vs. 17.8 npxGOT
- Away From Home: 23 non-penalty goals against vs. 14.53 npxGOT
One core issue with teams facing relegation is that they don’t score enough to counter-balance their poor defensive play against top sides.
Bottom line: if Southampton’s offense can pick up the pace with a few matches left, the arrival of positive defensive regression could lead to an escape from the bottom spot of the table as they seek a return to the Premier League next season.
Negative Regression Candidates
Arsenal, Manchester City, Brentford, Liverpool, Fulham, Wolves, Leicester City
For as bad as manager Jurgen Klopp’s defense has played, there’s an argument it could be so much worse.
The Reds have conceded 33 non-penalty goals against nearly 42 npxGOT. Here’s how that breaks down both at home and on the road:
- At Anfield: 11 non-penalty goals vs. 16.01 npxGOT
- Away from Anfield: 22 non-penalty goals vs. 25.65 npxGOT
At home, Liverpool has played three matches in which they’ve kept a clean sheet. But they have also allowed their opponent to create at least one npxGOT – Manchester United, West Ham United, and Manchester City. Away from home, there have proved four instances in which opponents have underperformed their attacking metrics by at least one npxGOT.
.@LFC have only lost one of their last 37 #PL matches at Anfield (W27 D9), with that defeat coming against Leeds in October 🏰#LIVARS pic.twitter.com/lakcq3Bsh0
— Premier League (@premierleague) April 9, 2023
The Cottagers will be a target for relegation next season as they’ve overperformed their underlying metrics by quite a margin.
Through 29 Premier League fixtures, manager Marco Silva’s side has a -1 non-penalty goal differential against a -10.33 npxGOT differential. Without key attacker Alexander Mitrovic, Fulham should be a fade for bettors until the Serbian international returns from an eight-match ban.
Neutral Regression Candidates
Newcastle United, Aston Villa, Brighton & Hove Albion, West Ham United, Everton
Spotlight: Aston Villa
A +2 season-long npGD vs. a +1.27 npxGOT differential is nothing to concern bettors.
That said, it’s worth noting Villa could see some positive defensive regression at home, where they’ve conceded 19 non-penalty goals against only 14.26 npxGOT.
Some of that has started to arrive in recent fixtures, with manager Unai Emery’s side conceding zero home goals off 0.79 npxGOT over their last three home fixtures. Although their remaining home schedule is brutal – Newcastle United, Fulham, Tottenham, and Brighton – bettors should give Villa a chance, especially as underdogs.