The 2023 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament is down to only four teams. All of the one seeds? Bounced early. Same for the two seeds and three seeds. We’re down to a four seed, two fives, and a nine. Literally, no one on the planet had Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, Connecticut, and Miami in their Final Four.
At this point in the tournament, you’re either already in the green with a pile of cashed tickets, or you’ve suffered some tough losses but still have three more games to get out of the red. The good news is that we have crunched the numbers, reviewed the trends, and have the vital info you need to know heading into Final Four weekend.
Let’s dive into these historical Final Four betting trends that may impact the next two games and look at each of the remaining teams.
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March Madness 2023: Final Four Betting Trends, Odds, and Best Bets
Historical Trends
History Favors the Favorites
UConn is the current favorite to win the National Championship at -125, and San Diego State is right behind the Huskies at +370. Both teams are favored in their Final Four matchup. In 17 out of the last 18 tournaments, one of the two favorites won the National Title. The only exception? UConn wasn’t favored to win their Final Four game against the top seed from the South Regional, Florida, in 2014. However, the Huskies beat the Gators and went on to defeat Kentucky for the championship.
History Fades the Public
Dating back to 2005, teams with 51% or more of the bets on the point spread are 23-27-1 in the Final Four and National Championship. Last year, the public was 0-3 ATS. Last year looks like an outlier, but if you have a slight lean, you may want to double-check which side the public is on before placing a bet.
Covers Have Been Unpredictable
In each of the last two years, one underdog and one favorite have covered the spread each year. Before that, the last time an underdog and a favorite split the Final Four was in 2015 when Wisconsin won outright as a +5 underdog, and Duke blew out Michigan State as a -5 favorite.
Oddsmakers have historically expected close games in the Final Four, with only six underdogs of seven points or more since 2003. 2023 isn’t any different.
In-State National Championships are Rare
With Miami and Florida Atlantic on opposite sides of the bracket, we could end up with an all-Florida National Championship. The last time that happened was in 1961 and 1962 when Cincinnati beat Ohio State both years.
Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State: Final Four Betting Trends
Final Four – 4/1 6:09 PM ET CBS
Line: SDSU -2
O/U: 132
FAU Trends to Know
Saturday night scenes ✂️🏆
On to Houston! ✈️ pic.twitter.com/uHWORGfIWF
— FAU Men’s Basketball – Final Four Bound (@FAUMBB) March 27, 2023
ATS Trends
Florida Atlantic is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this year. They’re also 5-2 ATS in neutral site games this season.
The Owls are 3-1 ATS in NCAA tournament games and went 2-1 ATS in conference tournament games.
O/U Trends
Florida Atlantic has gone under in five of their last seven and is 18-17-1 O/U this season.
The Owls are 4-4 O/U as an underdog.
FAU is 2-2 O/U in NCAA tournament games and 0-3 O/U in conference tournament games.
Player Prop to Watch
FAU center Vladislav Goldin has been under 8.5 points in five of his last six games. Books have the O/U for his point total at 8.5 against San Diego State. Look to bang the under.
SDSU Trends to Know
Jobs not finished. #TheTimeIsNow #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/GntYSMZr1X
— San Diego State Men’s Basketball (@Aztec_MBB) March 27, 2023
ATS Trends
San Diego State is 19-15-2 against the spread this year but is 4-0 in NCAA tournament games. They also went 2-1 ATS in their conference tournament.
The Aztecs are 7-4 ATS in neutral site games this season.
SDSU is also 15-13-2 ATS as a favorite this year.
San Diego State has also covered each of their last six spreads.
O/U Trends
The Aztecs went 14-22 O/U this year and have hit the under in 12 straight games and 14 of their last 15 games.
They haven’t allowed an opponent to score over 70 points in a game since February 25th at New Mexico.
The Aztecs are 3-8 O/U in neutral site games in 2022-23.
Player Prop to Watch
SDSU guard Darrion Trammell has been in double digits in each of his last three games and averages 9.9 points per game. His point total sits at 10.5. He should go over.
Best bets: Take FAU +2 and bet under 132.
Miami vs. Connecticut: Final Four Betting Trends
Final Four – 4/1 8:49 PM ET CBS
Line: UConn -5.5
O/U: 149.5
Miami Trends to Know
DID IT FOUR MIAMI. pic.twitter.com/VWTnjUyOCF
— Canes Men’s Basketball (@CanesHoops) March 26, 2023
ATS Trends
The Miami Hurricanes have covered their last four games against the spread but failed to cover in their previous four. The Canes are 22-14 ATS for the season.
Miami is 4-0 ATS in NCAA tournament games and went 0-2 ATS in their conference tournament.
The Hurricanes are 5-3 ATS in neutral site games.
Miami is also 9-2 ATS as an underdog this year, and they’re 4-2 ATS against ranked opponents.
O/U Trends
The Hurricanes have gone over their game point total in three straight matchups and four of their last five games.
They’re 17-18-1 O/U overall this year.
Miami has also been over 80 points in each of their last three games and averaged 79.6 points per game this year.
The Hurricanes are 3-1 O/U in the NCAA tournament and 1-1 in their conference tournament games.
They’re also 7-4 O/U as an underdog and 5-3 O/U in neutral-site games.
Player Prop to Watch
Miami guard Jordan Miller averaged 24.2 Points/Rebounds/Assists this year, but his number is only at 23.5 against UConn. He will probably play all 40 minutes and should manage to fill up the stat sheet while he’s out there. Look for Miller to go over 23.5 PRA.
UConn Trends to Know
✌️More#Made4March pic.twitter.com/nySL6OmRxg
— UConn Men’s Basketball (@UConnMBB) March 27, 2023
ATS Trends
UConn has covered in their last four games and nine of their last ten matchups overall.
The Huskies are 25-11-1 ATS for the 2022-23 season.
UConn is 4-0 ATS in NCAA tournament games and went 1-1 ATS in their conference tournament.
The Huskies are 8-1 ATS in neutral site games and 23-11-1 ATS as a favorite.
O/U Trends
UConn has gone under in six of their last eight games and is 20-17 O/U for the season.
The Huskies have gone over 80 points in three of their last four games, averaging 78.8 points per game this year.
UConn is 12-5 O/U in games they were favored in.
The Huskies are 2-2 O/U in the NCAA tournament and went 0-2 O/U in their conference tournament.
Player Prop to Watch
UConn forward Adama Sanogo has been solid throughout the tournament, but the books have set his PRA at 27.5. He’s been under in each of the last two games. He may get close to 27, but he’ll likely end up under here, too.
Best Bets: Take UConn -5.5 and under 149.5.
After Saturday, we’ll have just one college basketball game left until next November. Be sure to check out the College Basketball Experience podcast during the off-season for updates on coaching changes and the transfer portal!
