We are literally hours away from finding out who makes the field of 68 and where they’re seeded. However, we still have five championship games to get through and bet on. The entire week has been lit, and there is still a chance for even more drama before the selection committee makes their picks known. The Ivy League, SEC, Atlantic-10, AAC, and Big Ten still have to crown a conference champion, and we’ve got the best bets for the last day of conference championship week. Here are my Championship Week bets!
College Championship Week Best Bets – Sunday, March 12th
Memphis (25-8) vs. Houston (31-2)
American Athletic Conference Championship Final – 3:15 PM ET ESPN
Regular Season Results: Feb. 19 HOU 72-64, Mar. 5 HOU 67-65
Line: Houston -6
O/U: 135
#GoTigersGo pic.twitter.com/y90pAXJBdn
— Memphis Basketball (@Memphis_MBB) March 12, 2023
Houston’s star guard and AAC Player of the Year Marcus Sasser left Saturday’s semi-final against Cincinnati. The Cougars rolled to a 69-48 win, but Sasser left in the first half with a groin injury and did not return. He’s currently listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision for the championship.
Memphis is 4-2 ATS in neutral site games and 9-10-1 ATS in conference games this year. Houston is 2-2 ATS in neutral site games and 9-11 ATS in conference games.
The analysis for Sunday is fairly simple. Memphis has lost both of their matchups against the Houston Cougars this year, but they covered the spread both times.
Houston is expected to be a top seed in the tournament, if not the top seed. Memphis is projected to make the tournament and end up in the seven-to-nine seed range. A conference championship could push Memphis into a four or five-seed.
Sasser will be a game-time decision, and it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see him sit. Even if he plays, he’s going to be less than 100% and could see a reduced workload.
Memphis plays Houston as tough as anyone, and the games between these two teams have been close. Memphis has enough size to avoid being pushed around, and their guards bring a lot of scoring and experience. Houston takes the championship in the end and picks up the top overall seed in the tournament, but the Tigers find a way to cover.
Bet: Memphis +6
Princeton (20-8) vs. Yale (21-7)
Ivy League Tournament Final- 12 PM ET ESPN
Regular season results: Jan 28 Yale 87-65, Feb 16 Yale 93-83
Line: Yale -3
O/U: 140
Championship Sunday, Up Next!
The Tigers face Yale tomorrow at 12 p.m. in the #IvyMadness final!
🎟: https://t.co/fSaTlSEEsS #MakeShots 🐯🏀 pic.twitter.com/rE20YWzU8I
— Princeton Men’s Basketball (@PrincetonMBB) March 12, 2023
For the third time overall and second straight year, the Ivy League tournament final comes down to Princeton and Yale. Princeton won in 2017, and Yale won in 2022. This year figures to be the rubber match between the two Ivy League blue bloods.
Yale only played once to get to the conference final. They beat Cornell, 80-60, on Saturday. Princeton also only needed to play one game to get to the championship. The Tigers beat Penn 77-70.
Yale earned wins in both of the regular season matchups against Princeton. More importantly, both games featured an over/under that was 140 points or higher, and the over hit both times.
Princeton is 9-6 to the over in conference games and 1-0 in conference tournament games. The Yale Bulldogs are 7-8 O/U in conference games and 0-1 in conference tournament games.
Yale averages 74.5 points per game on offense and allows 63.7 games on defense. Princeton has managed 75.0 points per game on offense and has averaged 69.0 points per game on defense.
These two teams have already gone over 140 points twice this year, and they’ll likely follow a similar game script in the Ivy League tournament final today.
Bet: Over 140 points
Dayton (22-11) vs. VCU (26-7)
Atlantic-10 Tournament Final- 1 PM ET CBS
Regular season results: Jan 13 VCU 63-62, Feb 7 DAY 62-58
Line: VCU -2.5
O/U: 124.5
#FlyersWin pic.twitter.com/VJE4xt6Gfr
— Dayton Basketball (@DaytonMBB) March 11, 2023
Sunday’s Atlantic-10 tournament championship game will be the second time the Dayton Flyers and VCU Rams have squared off for an automatic bid to The Big Dance. VCU beat Dayton in 2015 to win its first A-10 championship.
The VCU Rams looked dominant in their conference tournament run. They picked up blowout wins against Davidson and St. Louis to get to the final.
The Dayton Flyers got past St. Joseph’s in the second round and beat a capable Fordham team in the semis to get to the championship game.
Points often come at a premium when the Flyers and Rams hook up, but books have set the game total at only 124.5 points. Bettors should look to the over for the championship game.
The Dayton Flyers are 7-13 to the under in conference games and 1-1 O/U in conference tournament games. They’ve gone under in 8 of their last ten games. However, the two overs during that period came in games in which the total was in the 120s.
VCU is 9-11 O/U in conference games and 1-1 in conference tournament games. VCU has played in three games this year, with the over/under in the 120s. They’ve gone over all three times. 124.5 is also the lowest single-game point total for the Rams this year.
The A-10 tournament championship game will likely be a tight, back-and-forth affair, but the two teams should combine to go over Sunday.
Bet: Over 124.5 points
Penn State (22-11) vs. Purdue (26-7)
Atlantic-10 Tournament Final- 330 PM ET CBS
Regular season results: Jan 8 PUR 76-63, Feb 1 Pur 80-60
Line: Purdue -6
O/U: 135.5
It’s the Boilermakers and Nittany Lions…
🏆 Championship Sunday in Chicago. pic.twitter.com/kbmTP1d6eI
— Purdue Men’s Basketball (@BoilerBall) March 11, 2023
The Nittany Lions should be off the bubble, but a tournament win would give them an automatic bid into the tournament and prevent the need to play a play-in game to get into the field of 64.
Purdue won and covered both of the matchups they’ve played against Penn State this year. In fact, neither game was really all that close.
Purdue was too much for the Nittany Lions in each of their first two matchups, and now Penn State has to play a fourth game in four days? Penn State should be absolutely gassed by the end of the championship final. Purdue plays at too fast a pace and has too many weapons for the Nittany Lions to keep this game close.
In the two previous matchups, Purdue center Zach Edey has pulled down 13 rebounds in each game. The books have set his total at only 12.5 for Sunday’s game.
Also, Penn State guard Jalen Pickett has his points, rebounds, and assists total set at 31.5 for the conference championship game. He went well over that total in his first matchup against the Boilermakers but struggled in the second game. Pickett went over 31.5 PRA in his game against the Indiana Hoosiers, but he was under against Northwestern and Illinois. He’s also played 112 minutes of basketball in the three days before this game.
Bet: Purdue -6
Bonus Bet I: Zach Edey over 12.5 rebounds
Bonus Bet II: Jalen Pickett under 31.5 points, rebounds, assists
Degens-Only Bonus Parlay
Yale, Texas A&M, Dayton, Houston, Purdue ML Parlay – +1759
