XFL Week One Picks (Ep. 1546)

XFL Week One Picks

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XFL Week One Picks

The guys (@GamblingPodcast) break down their XFL predictions in this XFL Week One picks podcast.

The RETURN of the XFL is coming this weekend! For those who just can’t get enough of football, the XFL will satisfy the hunger in less than a week from the Super Bowl. Some teams have remained the same, some have changed locations, and some have stayed the same, but all will bring a fresh layer to professional football. What sounds better than football in the spring? Auto-under on game totals seems like a good bet as it was in Week 1 of the USFL season, as many teams are very new and the offense lacks chemistry, and the defense is flying around.

For such a new league, there is some interesting things that are going. There are only two divisions in the league, a North and South division. In addition, the teams will travel together on flights to games, as the hub spot for the league is in Arlington. For the playoffs, the top 2 teams in each league will make it, with the South division looking a little weak compared to the North division. The biggest takeaway needed this weekend for future betting for the league is what team has the best LIT factor from their crowd.

Vegas Vipers/Arlington Renegades: Arlington -2.5, Arlington -125, Vegas +105, Game Total O/U: 37

Head Coach Ron Woodson is in his first head coaching gig with the Vipers while Bob Stoops was head coach of the Renegades back in 2020. This game features a mix of questionable starters at quarterback and creates a high likelihood of seeing more than one quarterback for each team. The Vipers host some former NFL talent such as Martavis Bryant who was on the cusp of being a stud at one point. But overall, the Renegades seem to have more screws tightened in their organization so far, which could go a long way in a new league.

Orlando Guardians/Houston Roughnecks: Houston -2.5, Houston -125, Orlando +105, Game Total O/U: 35.5

Paxton Lynch has swindled a starting quarterback job somehow, despite never having any good film in a professional league. Wade Phillips is coaching the defense of the Roughnecks and should be able to corral the players as he is known for being a player coach. He should especially do well with the inevitable poor quarterback play of the Guardians. The one knock on the Roughnecks is that the starting quarterback for them is still unclear.

St. Louis Battlehawks/San Antonio Rocks: St. Louis -2.5, St. Louis -125, San Antonio +105, Game Total O/U: 36.5

San Antonio is the only home underdog on the weekend, which is certainly something to note if Vegas feels like this in week 1. The Battlehawks have a legit crowd behind them though who showed out in 2020, which could explain their line as Vegas might expect them to travel well. They also are quarterbacked by Alabama great AJ McCarron, who has a solid resume compared to many of the other quarterback options in the league. On the flip side, San Antonio has a particularly weak quarterback room.

Seattle Sea Dragons/D.C. Defenders: D.C. -1.5, D.C. -115, Seattle, -105, Game Total O/U: 35.5

The Sea Dragons host NFL great Josh Gordon, who would have been a legend only for his play if he knew to stay off the weeeeeed. In general though, both teams feature very good athletes on both sides of the ball, and seem a little mispriced. At +750 to win the league, the Defenders could be a long shot worth taking the risk on, as they look much better than the second-least likely team to win it all.

XFL Best Bets:

Kramer Lock: Seattle +1.5

Kramer Dog: Vegas ML

Sean Lock: Houston -2.5

Sean Dog: Seattle ML

Colby Lock: Arlington -2.5

Colby Dog: San Antonio ML

XFL Week One Odds via WynnBET

Date Teams Spread ML Total
2/18 12:00 PM Vegas Vipers 105 37
Arlington Renegades -2.5 -125
2/18 5:30 PM Orlando Guardians 105 35.5
Houston Roughnecks -2.5 -125
2/19 12:00 PM St Louis BattleHawks -2.5 -125 36.5
San Antonio Brahmas 105
2/19 5:00 PM Seattle Sea Dragons -105 35.5
DC Defenders -1.5 -115

Podcast Transcription

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