AFC Championship Game Best Bets and Props

AFC Championship Game Best Bets and Props
AFC Championship Game Best Bets and Props

The Cincinnati Bengals head to Kansas City, Missouri, to take on the Kansas City Chiefs and decide who represents the AFC in the Super Bowl!

This game is a rematch of last season’s championship game that turned into an instant classic. The Chiefs went up 21-3 before the Bengals stormed back and won an overtime thriller to punch their ticket to Super Bowl LVI.

The biggest story all week has been the health of Chiefs superstar QB Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes went down in the first quarter of their divisional round win against the Jacksonville Jaguars with an ankle injury after Jags D-lineman Arden Key landed awkwardly on Mahomes’ ankle.

Mahomes practiced both Wednesday and Thursday and appears to be a full go for Sunday’s game. The biggest question will be how much that injury limits him.

When to Watch: Sunday, January 29th, 6:30 PM EST
Where to Watch: CBS, Paramount +, CBS Mobile App

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AFC Championship Game Best Bets and Props

The Spread

Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games.
Bengals are 10-0 SU in their last ten games.

Chiefs are 4-6 ATS in their last ten games.
Chiefs are 9-1 SU in their last ten games.

This spread has been on the move non-stop all week. The Patrick Mahomes factor, of course, is the biggest component of that. Right now, with the appearance, Mahomes will play with little restrictions.

The line on WynnBet has settled in at +1 for the Bengals, where WynnBet is paying -110, and -1 for the Chiefs, where WynnBet is offering -106. Regardless of which way this game goes, it’s likely to be a close one. These teams have become very familiar with each other in the last few seasons.

Sunday’s game will mark the fourth meeting by these two opponents in 393 days. Their most recent meeting came on December 2nd when the Bengals secured a 27-24 win at home.

Last year’s Championship game was the 27-24 overtime win in KC by the Bengals, and in Cincinnati just a few weeks prior, in January 2022, the Bengals also won 34-31. Three games, all within three points, the Bengals winning each time.

Cincinnati is on a 10-game winning streak, while the Chiefs have won 6-games in a row. As noted above, the Bengals are the much better team ATS. Only the New York Giants covered more spreads in 2022 than Cincinnati, who have gone 13-5 ATS so far.

Only three teams were worse than the Chiefs (Buccaneers, Bears, and Colts) this season ATS. Kansas City is just 6-11-1, 5-10 as the favorite, and 2-5-1 as the home favorite.

The injury, the past three matchups, and the ATS records of these teams are just too much to look past, and all of these play in favor of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Whichever team wins, this should be a close game that also favors the underdog. If you need a little more “ICEing” on the cake, Joe Burrow is 8-0 in his career in cold weather games (under 40 degrees), Cincinnati is just too good to pass up this week.

Pick: Bengals +1 (-110)

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The Total

Bengals are 5-5 to the over in their last ten games.

Chiefs are 4-6 to the over in their last ten games.

WynnBet is currently offering the over/under of 47.5 points in this game and paying -108 odds either way. The last three matchups between these two teams went over this total all three times (51 twice, 65 in the other).

Each of these teams leans just slightly towards the under on the season. Cincinnati is 10-7-1 hitting the under, while Kansas City is 10-8 to the under.

The weather is not forecasted to be much of a factor other than cold (18 degrees around kickoff 11MPH wind). Patrick Mahomes’ ankle could be the biggest factor in this going under.

The Chiefs will likely come into the game trying to slow things down and burn more clock. Whether Cincinnati will allow that to happen or not is to be seen. Based on that and the propensity for the unders from both of these teams throughout the season, under seems to be the safer side.

Pick: Under 47.5 (-108)

The Fun Bets

Joe Burrow Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

Prop time! Joe Burrow isn’t always known for his running because he doesn’t need to run a lot of the time. However, when he needs to get out of the pocket and scramble, Joe Cool can get it done with his legs.

Last week against the Buffalo Bills, Burrow ran for 31 yards on six attempts. In the divisional round, Burrow even rushed for a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens.

Six times during the regular season, Burrow went over this rushing mark, including games of 47 and 46 yards in weeks one and thirteen, respectively.

In his last two games against the Chiefs, Burrow ran for 25 yards in last year’s championship game and 46 yards in their week thirteen matchup earlier this season.

Trevor Lawrence had 26 rushing yards against the Chiefs defense last week in the divisional matchup. In ten of their last eleven matchups, the Chiefs have given up more than 17 rushing yards to the quarterback position.

Week 16 against Seattle, where Geno Smith had 16 yards being the lone exception during that period.

Ja’Marr Chase Over 6.5 Receptions (-145)

Ja’Marr Chase is one of the top receivers in the game right now, and he is the focal point of this powerful offense. In his last ten games, Chase has averaged over 11 targets per game. He’s hauled in at least seven catches in all but one of those games.

In his three starts against this Chiefs defense, Chase caught seven passes in the week thirteen matchup, six in last year’s AFC Championship game, and had 11 catches on 12 targets in the week seventeen matchup last season.

WynnBet Build Your Own Bet

Bengals ML

Travis Kelce 1+ TDs

Joe Burrow 25+ Rushing Yards

Joe Mixon 85+ Rushing Yards

WynnBet’s version of a “same game parlay” allows us to craft the perfect long shot in hopes of snagging a nice return on investment.

We’ve already established the Bengals covering +1, which likely means them winning the game. Travis Kelce is a man from another planet and the favorite target of Patrick Mahomes.

Kelce had 14 receptions on 17 targets, including two touchdowns last week. He has 14 touchdown catches so far this season. Kelce will again be a reliable target for an injured Mahomes.

This season the Chiefs have allowed an average of 109.3 rushing yards per game on defense and were 19th worst in yards allowed per rush at 4.5.

We’re already planning on Burrow going over 17.5 rush yards, so here you just need that little extra to get to 25. Joe Mixon has been a man on a mission. Last week on 20 carries, Mixon ran for 105 yards against the Buffalo Bills.

Mixon did not play week thirteen against the Chiefs this season. However, in last year’s AFC Championship game, he rushed for 88 yards on 21 attempts.

 

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