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Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 11 Wong Teasers

Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 11 Wong Teasers

Welcome back to the NFL Week 11 Wong Teasers! In this article, we will take a look at the historical trends and current lines that meet the criteria of the famous blackjack bettor Stanford Wong. If you are unfamiliar with Wong Teasers, be sure to check out our Wong Teaser Basics article.

Finally! Our first 100% week! I think teams are starting to be more consistent, and the lines are starting to settle in. A lot of wrong lines to start the season this year, which doesn’t normally happen. A lot more close games as well recently, which has helped us out a lot. Let’s keep it going!

This week I really like the Bills in a teaser. Coming off a heartbreaking loss. Bills Mafia will travel well to the new venue. I also like the Vikings and Texans this weekend. I will definitely be avoiding the Raiders. Their teaser record speaks for itself. This team has all sorts of problems.

Good luck this weekend!

MORE SGPN FANTASY FOOTBALL CONTENT

Snap Share Report: Week 10

Week 11 Fantasy Football Injury Report 

Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings

SGPN Fantasy Football Youtube Channel


Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 11 Wong Teasers

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy

Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers.

For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½

Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3

Week 11 Lines

All lines are courtesy of WynnBet. Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement.

This will show the total and the Record of that team as a 6pt teaser in the current situation this week. So if they’re an underdog, their record below will be their record as an underdog. The total is only on this chart so that you can reference it.

Friday Spread Total Record since 2018 10 Point Record
Bears +3 49 3-0
Bills -7.5 50 0-0
Lions +3 45 9-3
Texans +3 41 7-1
Vikings +1.5 40 9-3 7-1
49ers -8 43.5 4-2
Raiders +2.5 41 7-6 2-3

So how do I bet these?

Typically, I will form 2-3 teasers taking in information from handicappers at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network as well as my own handicaps on teams that meet the criteria. As well as any additional trends.

2022 Results

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 28-12 70%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 4-4 50%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 23-5 82.14%
10 pt -10 thru -10.5 5-1 83.33%

 

Week Record Win %
1 1-4 20%
2 2-2 50%
3 5-1 83.33%
4 3-3 50%
5 2-1 66.67%
6 7-1 87.5%
7 2-2 50%
8 5-1 83.33%
9 5-1 83.33%
10 5-0 100%

 

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets, continue below…

Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 59-18 76.62%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-18 74.29%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 60-16 78.95%
6 pt 2021 +1½ thru +3 67-17 79.76%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 18-3 85.71%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 13-4 76.47%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 25-3 89.29%
6 pt 2021 -7½ thru -9 24-5 82.76%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 35-3 92.1%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 35-5 87.5%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 34-6 85%
10 pt 2021 +1½ thru +2½ 36-3 92.3%
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%
10 pt 2021 -10 thru -10½ 13-0 100%

 

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book, so that yours may differ.

Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2018-2021

Week Record Win %
1 22-4 84.62%
2 17-3 85%
3 26-2 92.86%
4 16-6 72.73%
5 19-4 82.61%
6 17-8 73.08%
7 15-6 68%
8 12-1 92.3%
9 17-3 85%
10 16-4 80%
11 14-8 63.64%
12 22-3 88%
13 17-4 80.95%
14 22-9 70.97%
15 18-4 81.82%
16 23-4 85.19%
17 9-7 56.25%
18 2-0 100%

Regarding Game Totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

From 2018-2021, here are the statistics, including playoffs:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 234-65 78.26%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 177-50 77.97%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 36-13 73.47%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 76-15 83.52%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 60-11 84.5%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 12-1 92.3%

 

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 53-12 81.25%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 43-9 82.7%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 9-1 90%

 

Here are the results for 2022:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 28-12 70%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 24-9 72.73%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 9-3 75%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 4-4 50%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 4-4 50%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 1-2 33.33%

 

 

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