This weekend’s UFC card has a lot of favorites that might surprise people. Those coming in on the moneyline as the top dog are those that have been in the UFC for quite a bit less time. While that might make you gun-shy at the books, there are still plenty of props to make UFC 280 worth your while. We’ve got five that you need to keep an eye on.
UFC 280 – Props and Totals
#1 – Brady/Muhammad – Fight Goes to Decision (-160)
These two fighters have been in a lot of decisions – 26 of them to be exact. That means 65% of their total fights have ended in the hands of the judges. Stylistically, this fight makes sense to follow that trend. Both guys have been leaning on their wrestling as of late and are both strong defensively on the mats. Even if they were to stall out in their wrestling, they’ll probably just spend the bulk of the fight against the cage pushing that action. It might not wind up being the most exciting fight at UFC 280 if that happens, but it’ll be easy to cash.
#2 – Aljamain Sterling – Wins by Submission (+400)
I know this one is a bit of a longshot considering T.J. Dillashaw has never been submitted – the odds reflect that as well. However, Dillashaw has never really fought someone with the combination of takedowns and jiu-jitsu like Sterling. Dominick Cruz took him down four times, but wasn’t really known for his submissions (he has just one in his career). Joe Soto has double-digit submissions, but had none of the ability to get Dillashaw down.
With ‘The Funkmaster’ doing what he did last fight, I’d give him better than a 4-to-1 shot to get the finish this weekend.
— ESPN (@espn) June 7, 2020
#3 – Mateusz Gamrot – Wins by Decision (+150)
This fight is a particularly hard one to call, but Mateusz Gamrot is a guy who I trust after going toe-to-toe with Arman Tsarukyan. In addition to showing he can handle a high-level grappler, he’s shown his gas tank is exceptional. With the fight being against Beneil Dariush, I think he’s going to have a big advantage on the feet and the athleticism to keep it there if he wants. However, as Drakkar Klose found out, it’s really hard to get Dariush out of there. This is especially true given that Gamrot prefers to submit his opponents. I see this going to the card either way at UFC 280, so since I’m in on Gamrot, let’s turn a -200 favorite into a plus-money play.
#4 – Karol Rosa – Wins by Decision (-125)
Five fights in the UFC for Karol Rosa. Five decisions in the UFC in those fights.
The analysis never has to be that flashy, but it seems obvious that Karol Rosa doesn’t have loads of finishing ability or instinct. With that being said, I still think she has the skills to easily beat Lina Lansberg. Returning from two years off, Lansberg looked slower against Pannie Kianzad. I think Rosa may even be faster and could potentially take the fight down too. There are lots of ways for her to get ahead in this fight, but really none of them involve a finish.
#5 – Lucas Almeida – Wins by KO (+600)
It simply wouldn’t be a props article if we didn’t drop a whopper at the end of it. Lucas Almeida shocked a lot of people when he knocked out Mike Trizano. In that fight, he showed he clearly has the hands to drop anybody and everybody.
There are reasons why this is a longshot pick. The main one is that Zubaira Tukhugov likes to close the distance early. However, he’s only scoring takedowns at a 43% clip. He also has had really low control numbers in the last few fights. If he’s unable to get this fight to the ground for an extended period of time, he could eat a +600 left hook like Trizano ate.
Lucas Almeida TKOs Mike Trizano (6/4/22) pic.twitter.com/6VZ5Avm6OH
— Granby Roll (@ChillemDa4) June 6, 2022
If you’d like even more information on props and totals that can cash big, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping episodes four times a week to make you the smartest guy at the bar.