Week 6 was a first-ever milestone for the flowchart! The minimum score for a lineup made using the flowchart was 159 DKPts which would have minimum cashed in most all GPP contests last week. Yes, you read that right, if you followed the flowchart last week, it was impossible to lose money. I’m not going to lie to you and say that’s what you can expect every week, but that sort of floor was phenomenal and made the afternoon sweat really exciting. Obviously Watson/Fuller/Cooks all performed extremely well to start our team stack off hot, but then both Henry and Brown having great days really solidified the game stack that we picked.
As I mentioned last week, always focus on making sure that you use all the $50,000 salary on DraftKings. Most of the pathways on the flowchart will get you close to there, but in these huge Sunday Main slates it does not do you any favors to leave money on the table. If you have a good feeling about someone, or just want to swap out to a different defense to help fill in the salary gap, I say go for it. People have also been using the flowchart more as a player pool when building lineups, and I have seen some good results from that already this season. Let’s jump right into the Week 7 flowchart!
NFL DFS Flowchart Week 7 – DraftKings GPP
The Kansas City Chiefs are heading out to Denver on Sunday to take on the Broncos in a game that is expected to see some cold weather conditions. Current reports are showing that we could see temperatures around 20 degrees and snow. The total for this game has already dropped to 44.5, which seems extremely low for a game involving Patrick Mahomes. Lucky for us, all of this will cause the public to stay away from this game, so let’s take a look at how the $500 million dollar man has done in the cold during his career.
From what I could find, Mahomes has played in 5 games where the temperature was below freezing at kickoff. In these games, he has averaged 315 yards and two touchdowns passing, and the Chiefs have scored 27 points per game. The other thing that I love about this game stack, is that we are getting access to this explosive offense when all three players are priced the lowest we have seen all season. Mahomes is $7400 (prev. low $7400 in Wk 1), Tyreek Hill is $6400 ($6700 in Wk 6), and Travis Kelce is $6300 ($6400 in Wk 5), so I ask you, if you aren’t going to load up on the Chiefs at their lowest price point of the season, when are you? Let’s ride.
On the Denver side of the ball, I like picking one of their receivers here to show out against Kansas City. We know how good of a prospect that Jerry Jeudy ($5100) is, but recently it’s been all Tim Patrick ($4600) for the Broncos. Patrick saw 193 air yards last Sunday and crossed the 100 yard bonus by one yard in Week 6. I believe that either of these guys has the potential for a 100 yard and 2 TD day, so feel free to take your pick. I do not believe that the Broncos will be able to run the ball as much as they would like to against the Chiefs defense, so hopefully they let Lock unleash it a little bit and these receivers benefit.
Low Owned Leverage
This has quickly turned into my favorite section of the flowchart, because we get to dive deep into some leverage spots. This week, we have plenty of options to choose from because a ton of potential chalk plays have popped up due to late-week injuries. I want to start by talking about this ARI/SEA game which was flexed to Sunday night football and provides us a really unique late swap situation this week. I would recommend that anyone who is playing this game (which should be a lot of you), makes sure to include a player in your flex spot. This will allow you a ton of late-swap flexibility (get it?) on Sunday night, depending on how the rest of your lineup is doing and relative to contest size you have entered.
Specific to the flowchart, I like Chris Carson ($6400) a lot here for leverage. Both Lockett and Metcalf will be higher owned than him, but we have seen Carson be pretty involved with the passing attack so far this season averaging over 4 targets per game. If he is able to find paydirt and take away from the Seahawks stud receivers, it provides immediate leverage. Additionally, if you put him in your flex spot and also leave $200 on the table when you finish your lineup, it allows you to change out to Tyler Lockett ($6600) later in the day if the rest of your lineup is off to a blazing start and you want to pay up to the chalkier play.
The last time that Alvin Kamara was predicted to be the chalkiest play of the slate, Latavius Murray ($4800) vultured two touchdowns and almost outscored Kamara. While I am not expecting this to happen again, it is hard to downplay the upside for Murray especially when his price tag is a full $3200 cheaper. I don’t think it’s too far out on the range of outcomes that we see Sean Payton and the Saints line up Alvin Kamara out wide and put Murray in the backfield for quite a few plays of this game.
The other running back that is projected to be extremely high owned is Giovanni Bernard from the Bengals now that Joe Mixon has officially been ruled out. I love the Bengals passing offense in this game, and I am hoping that the wide receivers will do more of the scoring than Bernard. The Browns defense has already given up seven different WR1 or WR2 games to their opponents this season (meaning a WR scored in the Top 24), which is 4th highest in the league. Both Tee Higgins ($5300) and Tyler Boyd ($5400) are very closely priced and have clearly proven this season that they are the future of this offense along with Joe Burrow.
The final piece of the leverage column is Antonio Gibson ($5000) who is on the lower end of the running back pricing spectrum and is a pivot off the chalkier Terry McLaurin. Clearly, I am still big on McLaurin (as he shows up the Studs column), but I would not advocate playing both of these players together. This Dallas defense has not proven to be able to stop anyone this season, and we saw Kenyan Drake hit a pretty wide open 69 yard touchdown run in Week 6. Gibson has similar upside this week.
Stud RBs & Chalk
I really want to make sure that I have a piece of this Chargers/Jaguars game which may not be the most sexy game on the slate, but I think it has pretty big shootout potential. The Chargers are over a touchdown favorite, but any Chargers fan reading this will tell you that their games are never over until the final whistle blows. Keenan Allen ($6200) has been a complete target hog this year, accounting for 32% of Justin Herbert’s passing attempts (first in the league over that span), and he should see a ton of opportunity against the Jaguars malleable defense. On the other side of the field, DJ Chark ($5500) has proven to be a favorite red zone target for Gardner Minshew, who is now without Chris Thompson and Tyler Eifert. I think the third-year player flashes some of his breakout potential this week.
The running backs that finish off this list will all go pretty under-the-radar when it comes to ownership, but all of these guys have proven to be the workhorse for their offenses in the past few weeks. David Johnson ($5300) is one of only four running backs this season who has accounted for two-thirds of their team’s backfield touches in every game this season. Over the last three games, Ronald Jones ($6200) has been on the field for 63% of snaps, seen 82% of the RB carries, and has had four touches inside of the 10 yard line for the Tampa Bay Bucs. Todd Gurley ($6000) has been extremely involved in the Falcons offense this season seeing a touch or target on just under 50% of his snaps on the field and getting right about a third of the Falcons total offensive opportunities.
That does it for my flowchart analysis this week. As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you want to talk lineup strategy on Sunday morning. I will also post any updates I have to the NFL DFS flowchart as the rest of the injury news hits closer to kickoff. Good luck this weekend, let’s go finish in the green!
Past NFL DFS Flowchart Results
Week 1 – Optimal Lineup 157 DKPts, min cash in GPPs (top 20%)
Week 2 – Optimal Lineup 175.4 DKPts, 3X-4X cash in GPPs (top 4-5%)
Week 3 – Optimal Lineup 122.3 DKPts, no cash
Week 4 – Optimal Lineup 171.3 DKPts, 2X cash in GPPs (top 7-10%)
Week 5 – Optimal Lineup 178.92, 3X cash in GPPs (top 3-4%)
Week 6 – Optimal Lineup 180.2, 2X-3X cash in GPPs (top 5-6%) (ALL LINEUP COMBOS CASHED)