The whirlwind of Week 4 is behind us and we can all take a big deep breath. If you are like me, I am sure you were scrambling all Sunday morning to get Chiefs, Patriots, Titans, and Steelers players out of all your DFS and season-long lineups. Of course, we had the Chiefs/Pats game stacked in the initial flowchart last week, but I hope most people saw the update on the website and on Twitter to swap to the BUF/LVR game stack. Let’s hope this NFL DFS Flowchart for Week 5 isn’t such a scramble.
Last week’s optimal lineup tallied 171.3 DKPts and should have finished in the top 7-10% of most of the large GPPs. We will take that as a huge victory based on how crazy last week’s slate was. Luckily for us, the NFL has announced a couple of Week 5 schedule changes early enough to give us fantasy owners a chance to adjust. As of Thursday night, the Patriots/Broncos game has been pushed to Monday and the Bills/Titans game has been tentatively pushed to Tuesday barring any more positive tests out of Tennessee. I am assuming the DraftKings will follow suit and remove both of those games from the main slate, so I have planned accordingly in this week’s flowchart.
I am going to summarize my thoughts in a little bit quicker fashion this week, and will be back to the long form analysis in week 6.
Team Stack: I want to target the Panthers here in a matchup with the Falcons. It is pretty clear through four weeks that Atlanta can’t stop anyone as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers shredded them on Monday night relying heavily on a combination of running backs and tight ends. I like the price point for Teddy Bridgewater this week and assume his ownership will be right in the range that we want to target. I am going back to the well again this week with DJ Moore who you have to believe is going to break out one of these weeks and then pairing him with his receiving mate Robby Anderson who has already broken out multiple times in the first four weeks.
Bring it Back Stack: Calvin Ridley was blanketed by Jaire Alexander in Monday night and put up a tilting goose egg. I think that will lower his ownership, and with it seeming like Julio will be out again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Olamide Zaccheaus more owned than Ridley. That just doesn’t seem right. On the other side of the flowchart, Todd Gurley faces this Panthers defense who can’t stop anything on the run. He looked good in Week 4 and now faces another plus matchup.
Low-Owned Leverage: I want to have exposure to the Baltimore Ravens this week and Marquise Brown is popping out hard in the Air Yards category. If you have watched any Ravens games this year, you have seen how close this guy is to a breakout performance. The same can be said for JK Dobbins, and with Mark Ingram banged up this week, I think he should get a lot more opportunity. Trey Burton led the Colts in Tight End targets this week and is extremely low-priced at $2900. We have seen that punting at tight end has been a valuable strategy to start 2020, so I have no issue playing Burton this week.
Stud RBs/Chalk: I also want to have exposure to the Cowboys/Giants game this week because any game involving Dallas is going to be a points bonanza. Darius Slayton and Amari Cooper feel like the two safest floor plays from that game. James Robinson has a great matchup against the Texans poor run defense, as does Clyde Edwards-Helaire who faces the Raiders who have conceded an absurd amount of RB fantasy points this year.
Good luck this week!
Past NFL DFS Flowchart Results
Week 1 – Optimal Lineup 157 DKPts, min cash in GPPs (top 20%)
Week 2 – Optimal Lineup 175.4 DKPts, 3X-4X cash in GPPs (top 4-5%)
Week 3 – Optimal Lineup 122.3 DKPts, no cash
Week 4 – Optimal Lineup 171.3 DKPts, 2X Cash (top 7-10%)