EDIT: SUNDAY 10:00AM EST, With the Patriots/Chiefs game being off the main slate swap in Josh Allen for Patrick Mahomes, Stefon Diggs for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and John Brown for Tyreek Hill. On the Bring it Back stack swap in Josh Jacobs for Julian Edelman and Darren Waller for N’Keal Harry.
The flowchart hit its first speedbump last week, posting an optimal lineup of 122.3 DKPoints and missing out on the cash line. Matthew Stafford and the Lions did decently as a team stack but didn’t get anywhere close to some of the chalkier plays. If we’ve learned anything through three weeks it’s that we know exactly who the firepower offenses are going to be. As I mentioned last week, always focus on making sure that you use all the $50,000 salary on DraftKings. Most of the pathways on the flowchart will get you close to there, but in these huge Sunday Main slates it does not do you any favors to leave money on the table. If you have a good feeling about someone, or just want to swap out to a different defense to help fill in the salary gap, I say go for it. People have also been using the flowchart more as a player pool when deciding lineups, and I have seen some good results from that already this season. Let’s jump right into the Week 4 flowchart!
NFL DFS Flowchart Week 4 – DraftKings GPP
Seeing Patrick Mahomes headlining this week’s team stack has to make you feel good about the start of your lineup. Somehow, the 500 million dollar man is being projected outside the top 5 in QB ownership. There are plenty of cheaper options on the slate this weekend, so I have no issues paying up for the Chiefs fearless leader. Slotting in beside Mahomes is his backfield mate Clyde Edwards-Helaire (pronounced eeeeeeeeelaire if you are Steve Levy). The rookie had a great showing on the first game of the season against the Texans, but hasn’t really seemed to get as much hype since then. Don’t sleep on CEH, he put up more DKPts in last week’s matchup against the Ravens than he did in the first game when everyone was drooling over him. The spotlight has recently switched over to fellow rookie Jonathan Taylor (for good measure), but this is a good time to buy low on the three-down threat from LSU. It was a bit of a toss-up for me between Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to complete the team stack, but I like a few of the lower priced tight end options on the slate so I decided to go with the speedy wideout. Last week, Hill had a 37% air yard share and a managed to find paydirt. I am banking on Mahomes not throwing a TD pass to his fullback and offensive lineman this week so hopefully there is a little more condensed opportunity for Hill. In summary, it feels like we are going in on the Chiefs offense during a week where they may go under the radar, and I absolutely love it.
As excited as I am about the Chiefs, I am almost more excited about the Patriots in this game. In New England’s week 2 matchup with the high-octane Seahwaks offense, Cam Newton passed for 397 yards and totalled 3 scores. Julian Edelman also posted a career-high 179 yards on 8 catches and kept getting big play after big play late in the game. I’m not predicting another career day from Edelman, but he is seeing the highest average depth of target (aDOT) so far this year and has consistently been above 25% target share so far. Across the field, N’Keal Harry has had a really good season so far masked by a couple 1 yard line blunders that cost him some real fantasy points. If you add 2 more touchdowns to the second-year player’s 15% PPR share through 3 games, it’s hard not to think that a lot more people would be talking about him. Per usual, we are punting at defense with the Bengals and Texans. Feel free to swap these defenses out to make your lineups work!
Low Projected Ownership
Last week’s Milly Maker winning lineup featured 3 players who were under 5% owned: Rex Burkhead, Jeff Wilson Jr., and Austin Hooper. Then mixed in a couple of the more chalky plays from the Seattle and Dallas game. This highlights the importance of finding some lower-owned leverage plays. As I touched on last week, you don’t always need to force players in who you think will be less than 1% owned, but always make sure you have some pivots off the chalk. Luckily for us, the KC/NE matchup is already projecting to be more middle of the pack when it comes to ownership, so we don’t need to get too crazy here.
A couple of names pop out this week. First, Myles Gaskin is far and away the Dolphins lead running back this year (seeing 75% of the snaps and 61% of the carries in Week 3 against the Jaguars). He also garnered a 25% target share last week and in a game-script that projects the Dolphins to be throwing a lot against the Seahawks, I am ready to load up on the $5000 running back.
Hunter Henry is quietly commanding just under 20% of the Chargers PPR points this year and has yet to get into the end zone. He now faces a Tampa Bay defense who has given up 5 catches to tight ends twice this season already.
T.Y. Hilton lost another member of his wide receiver corps last week (Michael Pittman) and should see more opportunity this week in what predicts to be a more condensed offensive approach. The Bears are one of the more fraudulent 3-0 teams we have seen in recent years, and I’m pulling for a 2-touchdown explosion for Hilton.
Stud RBs & Chalk
Last week against the Packers, Alvin Kamara scored more PPR (44.7) points than the entire New York Giants football team. The Saints are still without star wideout Michael Thomas and now Jared Cook is sidelined. Drew Brees will happily check it down to his multi-functional running back. Kamara’s ceiling is just as high this week. He will be very high owned, but it feels like he should be priced way higher than $8000.
We didn’t expect to see Mike Davis performing as Christian McCaffrey-lite, but that’s just what he has done in the last six quarters. Davis saw a 32% target share last week against the Chargers and scored 23.1 PPR points in a game where the Panthers only scored 16 real points. Reminds you a lot of CMC right?
That does it for my flowchart analysis this week. As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you want to talk lineup strategy on Saturday or Sunday morning. I will also post any updates I have to the NFL DFS flowchart as the rest of the injury news hits closer to kickoff. Good luck this weekend, let’s go finish in the green!
Past NFL DFS Flowchart Results
Week 1 – Optimal Lineup 157 DKPts, min cash in GPPs (top 20%)
Week 2 – Optimal Lineup 175.4 DKPts, 3X-4X cash in GPPs (top 4-5%)
Week 3 – Optimal Lineup 122.3 DKPts, no cash