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TENNIS

US Open Tennis Picks: Odds and Best Bets for Round One

ATP US Open Tennis Best Bets: Odds and Picks for Round One

After a long break, tennis is back in full swing as a Grand Slam event will be starting at the end of August. However, unlike every other year, the US Open will be the second Grand Slam tournament in 2020 which should definitely be a unique experience for both fans and viewers. Luckily, the betting odds are already available several days prior to the official start of the tournament so one can take advantage of some value within several first round matches.

Without further ado, here are my best bests, previews, and US Open Tennis Picks:

Alex de Minaur vs. Andrej Martin

Pick: Alex de Minaur in Straight Sets (-150)

Based on the current odds, Alex de Minaur is almost a lock to advance into the second round. He is currently ranked 26th according to the ATP while Martin is ranked 95th so one can infer that there is a serious talent mismatch present within this match. Martin has never gotten passed the first round in the US Open while de Minaur managed to make it into the fourth round last year so the favorite is definitely more comfortable on this surface than the underdog.

Despite being just 21 years old, de Minaur is an extremely difficult player to play against since he uses his elite speed in order to keep balls in play while forcing the opposition into hitting extra shots. Although Martin loves to partake in long rallies as well, he is a bit of a clay court specialist and I expect his strokes to breakdown as de Minaur will force him into hitting a ton of extra shots. Perhaps Martin can keep one of these sets extremely close but I expect the favorite to take care of business in each set en route to an easy victory.

 

Milos Raonic vs. Leonardo Mayer

Pick: Milos Raonic in Straight Sets (-150)

Similarly to the previous match, this match also features a serious talent disparity which makes me believe that this match should end rather quickly. Raonic is in great form as he reached the final of the Western & Southern Open which was held at the location of this upcoming tournament so one can confirm that he is extremely comfortable on these courts. Raonic is known for being one of the best servers on tour and Mayer has a relatively weak serve so I can see a huge disparity in break point chances developing within this match.

While Raonic has been busy preparing for this tournament by playing matches over the past week, Mayer has not played in a professional tennis match since March so I expect him to come out extremely rusty which makes me concerned about his conditioning over these three sets. Although it is possible for Mayer to find a way to win a set via tiebreaker, I expect Raonic to simply overpower Mayer for the entire match as he should be able to coast to a straight set victory if he continues to play as well as he had at the Western & Southern Open.

 

Kevin Anderson vs. Alexander Zverev

Pick: Over 39.5 Games (-105)

Although Zverev is ranked within the top ten of the ATP, he has been playing some really bad tennis lately which makes me believe that this match should be extremely competitive. Anderson is an elite server on tour who has had a ton of success at the US Open in his career including a runner-up finish back in 2017 so his game translates extremely well to this surface. At the same time, Zverev has a lot of offensive firepower and he has great ground strokes so I can see this match turning into a bit of a war.

Although a straight sets victory is possible, I think that both players should be able to win at least one set in this match and Anderson’s serve is extremely difficult to break so I can also envision at least one tiebreaker within this match which bodes well for the over. I expect this match to finish with at least 40 games so I think that this line possesses a ton of value in the market.

 

Peter Gojowczyk vs. Hubert Hurkacz

Pick: Over 3.5 Sets (-121)

Although only one of these players is ranked within the top-30, Gojowczyk is a very underrated tennis player who has top-30 talent but fell in the rankings due to previous injuries so I think that he is a bit underrated by the betting markets. Hurkacz is a solid server but his strokes can get a bit wild at times which should prevent this match from ending in straight sets. Although Hurkacz is worthy of being the favorite in this match, Gojowczyk is very good at keeping balls in play so I can see the underdog experiencing some success at various points within this match.

Hurkacz has also only reached the second round of the US Open once so he has struggled a bit on American soil while Gojowczyk has reached the second round twice so one can argue that both players are relatively equal on this specific surface. I personally think that Gojowczyk on the moneyline might be worth a sprinkle but the safer play involves both players to win at least one set so that is the play that I like the most.

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