We have ourselves a fully-loaded 11 game slate ahead of us tonight in the NBA! Most likely, this will be the last night that isn’t affected by pre-All Star break load management, so I think we should be in for a fun one in the Daily Fantasy world. Here’s my breakdown and flowchart for the Wednesday 2/12/2020 games. For those who didn’t read the initial article with all the explanations, you can find it here. Also for anyone who cares, I was midway through last week’s flowchart and article when the huge 4-player MIN/HOU/ATL/GS trade went down which wiped out quite a few players in the flowchart, so I apologize for the one-week hiatus. I will be posting these articles every Wednesday for the remainder of the NBA season!
Stud with an “Easy” Matchup
When we are looking for an easy matchup, we don’t need to look much farther than Point Guards against Cleveland. The Cavaliers have been the best matchup this season for PGs, and over the last two weeks they are giving up 20% more points and 13% more assists compared to their opponent’s season average. Trae Young already shoulders the load for this Atlanta team, and in a matchup that should be relatively close; he will be able to feast on the Cavaliers backcourt.
Game Stack w/ High Projected Pace
The matchup between Portland and Memphis features one of the highest Vegas totals of the day with an Over/Under of 235.5. In addition, Memphis plays with the 4th highest pace while Portland comes in just outside the Top 10 at 11th for the season. We know this game has a chance to be high scoring, so let’s look at where we can find the best matchups. Jaren Jackson Jr. has seen an increase in minutes since Jae Crowder & Solomon Hill were traded and the Trailblazers are giving up 29% more rebounds to opposing PFs over the last month. On the other side of the ball, Hassan Whiteside has been on a tear recording a double-double in 9 of his last 10 games. Centers against Memphis are an incredible value, and I really like loading up these two big men in your lineups tonight.
Bargain Players to get to 5X Value
As you can see by the flowchart, we are really looking to target this poor Cavaliers defense. Over the past couple of weeks, DeAndre Hunter has had DK point outbursts of 43.3 (2/9 vs. NY), 34.3 (1/26 vs. WAS), and 30 (1/28 vs. TOR); and two of these games have something in common (a really bad team against SFs). Luckily for us, Cleveland checks in as the 2nd best matchup for SFs over the last month so the long and lanky Hunter should be able to make things happen on the defensive side of the ball to help achieve his 22 DK point necessary 5X Value output.
Another sneaky value play I see for today is TJ McConnell, who is matched up against the Milwaukee Bucks. In Monday’s game, Nate McMillan decided to not play the other Pacers backup PG Aaron Holiday. McConnell was able to capatilize on this, and filled up the stat sheet with an 8/2/2/2/2 line. At only $3600, you don’t need a huge game to see him cross over the 5X value mark, and since it doesn’t look like the pricing has caught up to the recent rotation change, we have an opportunity here to take advantage.
High Usage Players
In his two games back from injury, Paul Millsap has looked pretty good and has outplayed his fellow PF Jerami Grant. I like this play regardless, but if we see Millsap get the nod for the starting lineup on Wednesday, I think he becomes a lock! Millsap should continue to show out strong after his injury and gobble up some of the usage he was having prior to missing the last month. Another player I like, who draws a convenient matchup against a jumbled up Timberwolves backcourt is Terry Rozier (apologies for Boston graphic in above diagram, did this very late at night and sleep-deprived). After the departure of Napier & Wiggins, Minnesota has gotten considerably worse over the past two weeks at guarding PGs. Now that DeAngelo Russell is starting full-time (one of the worst defenders in the league) Rozier should be able to have his way with the Timberwolves and orchestrate the offense all night for Charlotte.
I have included all the data sheets for today down below. I post these sheets everyday on my Twitter page, so if you find them useful and can’t wait until next Wednesday’s article to scratch the NBA DFS itch, make sure to check it out!