There’s plenty of value on the board when looking at the NFL Week 10 picks. We’ve had plenty of action through the first seven weeks. I’ve had good calls, bad calls, and some that should have hit and didn’t. However, the best one to date was two weeks ago when we hit our +1180 parlay. That has us playing with some house money after it hit, plus some of our picks have hit all year. I’ll look to keep that heat going. Here’s a look at my top bets and a parlay that plays!
2026 NFL Week 10 Picks, Bets, And A Parlay That Pays
New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions (-2.5)
I’ll start with the early morning game taking place in Germany. These overseas games can always be a little weird. However, I feel pretty good about this one on my NFL Week 10 picks. The Patriots take on the Lions after one team is coming off a loss, and the other a win. Neither performed great last week. Therefore, somebody’s bound to bounce back.
When you look at these teams, they have both had some really good games. They’ve also both had some really questionable ones. Both defenses are allowing an average of 23 points per game, but have looked like the weak link. The Patriots offense is averaging 23.4 points per game, while the Lions are averaging 27.8.
Expect Dan Campbell to pull out some interesting plays in Germany to give the Munich crowd something to get excited about. The Lions also have to keep their foot on the gas in the NFL’s top division.
NFL Week 10 best bet: Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
The next game on our NFL Week 10 picks is an NFC North showdown that is very important. The Vikings have lost two in a row and now sit in second place behind the Chicago Bears. A win here would put them back in first. The Green Bay Packers currently sit in fourth place, despite only losing three games.
The Vikings have been carried by their defense. Kyler Murray is out playing Call of Duty, and Carson Wentz hasn’t been good since 2017. Therefore, the Vikings made a move right before the trade deadline and went out to get a new quarterback. Well, an old quarterback. A new, old, former quarterback. That’s right, they traded for Kirk Cousins.
Kirko Chainz comes back to Minnesota. With Minnesota playing on Monday night, their quarterback, who, of course, knows the offense but still has to travel and adjust, just arriving on Wednesday, this is too much for the Vikings. I don’t like picking the Packers. However, I have to in this one.
NFL Week 10 best bet: Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Buffalo Bills (-7.5) @ New York Jets
Next up, we have another divisional matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets. This one is not quite as important as the NFC North showdown I just talked about. The Bills sit at 7-1, and the Jets sit at 2-7. The Bills are also 6-2 against the spread.
The Jets’ defense used to be their strength, and while I have no doubt Josh Allen may throw an interception, this isn’t the same defense. They’re allowing 24.8 points per game. Honestly, that’s not that much better than the Bills’ 23.4 points allowed. However, the difference is the offense.
The Bills’ offense is a powerhouse, scoring 32 points per game. The Jets offense has had its moments. However, they’re averaging just 20 points per game. That’s a big enough of a difference that 7.5 just doesn’t seem like enough points. On top of that, the Bills have covered against the Jets in the last five games, whether the spread was a point or 12.5 points. Last year they won at the Jets, 30-10.
NFL Week 10 best bet: Bills -7.5
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders
I already talked about the Vikings acquiring their new, old quarterback, Kirk Cousins. That means he’s no longer starting for the Las Vegas Raiders. Which means Fernando Mendoza will make his first career start in the NFL.
That may not be great news for Mendoza as he goes against the Seattle Seahawks. Yes, they haven’t looked the same as last year. However, they’re still an elite defense that is very well coached. Seattle is holding teams to just 18 points per game. That’s skewed because NFL powerhouses like the 49ers and Chicago Bears put up 67 combined points on them. Other teams haven’t fared so well.
Drew Lock didn’t look great last week, but I think he bounces back here. Sam Darnold will miss another week, and Lock will want to prove he can still put points on the board. Less than a touchdown favorite, this spread should be higher. Give me the Seahawks in a route, as their defense makes things difficult for Mendoza.
NFL Week 10 best bet: Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
Finally, in my top picks for Week 10 NFL, I’ve got the 49ers at the Cowboys. These are two really good offenses, and I like the over as well. However, my official pick has to ride with the far better team.
The 49ers average 29 points per game, while the Cowboys are just slightly behind at 27 points per game. The difference is on defense. The Cowboys are giving up 26.2 points per game, while the 49ers are allowing just 19.5. On top of that, the 49ers added a new receiving weapon in Keenan Allen. He may be older, but he’s very reliable and will be a nice third-down option for Brock Purdy.
The Cowboys may be sitting at 5-4 ATS. However, they’re not the better team in this one, and 4.5 points just doesn’t feel like enough. I like this one up to a touchdown. Expect the defense to pressure Dak into mistakes and for Purdy to play a nice, clean game like usual. Let’s get a couple of CMC touchdowns for my fantasy team as well.
NFL Week 10 best bet: 49ers (-4.5)
The Parlay
We’ll keep this one a little on the shorter side, with just four legs. I’ll take the 49ers -4.5, the Seahawks -6.5, the Packers moneyline, and the Colts moneyline. Add all those together, and you get a solid +847 parlay.
