Thursday Night Football Week 10 Prop Bets Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) are joined by Stephie Smalls (@StephieSmallls) for Thursday Night Football props on Giants vs. Commanders, after a look back at Carson Wentz’s rough Monday night. Sean Green goes under on J.J. McCarthy’s rushing yards, and Ryan Kramer takes the over.
Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins And The Vikings Quarterback Mess
Monday Night Football was ugly, and Sean Green puts it squarely on Carson Wentz, calling it a complete disaster class in Minnesota. The good news came from the Bills. They cashed in the Circa Million for a four-winner week, and since Buffalo was the last lock, Sean Green is 3 and 0 on locks and 17 and 9 on NFL locks for the season. That is 65%, and the show is still free.
Stephie Smalls joins from the Stephie Smalls podcast and wants no more Carson Wentz, period. Ryan Kramer goes after the front office instead, because Minnesota traded J.J. McCarthy for a fifth-round pick knowing this was the backup plan. That is a very bad look for Kevin O’Connell. Sean Green adds the numbers case: Kyler Murray and Wentz are two of the most injury-prone quarterbacks in a long time, so why not keep the young guy who knew the system? The realistic fix is Kirk Cousins, and Stephie Smalls notes it works for the Raiders too. Bringing Kirk back is comical. But with Justin Jefferson and that defense, competent quarterback play is all this team is missing.
Fading Jayden Daniels Tops The Thursday Night Football Props
Next up is Giants and Commanders on Thursday night, and Stephie Smalls is going to the game with Jell-O shots and maybe a poncho, because weather is in the forecast. Ryan Kramer opens the Thursday Night Football props by running back the system from the Sunday slate show. That means the under on passing yards against the Giants. Jayden Daniels under 200 passing yards at plus 120 is the play, with the main number closer to 202 or 204. The reason is the last meeting. Once the Giants heated him up late and in overtime, Daniels made irrational decisions and showed a poor feel for the clock again.
Stephie Smalls echoes it with a second angle, Daniels under 31.5 pass attempts. He is averaging 30 attempts per game this season and threw 25 times against the Giants in week five. He also loves to scramble, and that eats into the passing volume. The yardage line was showing 205.5 in spots, but Ryan Kramer is avoiding juice this season and is happy at the alternate number. Then there is the Giants pass rush getting nastier every week. Reece has Stephie Smalls talking Lawrence Taylor comparisons, and the guys love that he never celebrates and credits his coaches.
Somewhere in there Sean Green gets on the soapbox about bad teams taking running backs in the top 10, and the Eagles fan in the room signs off on the Jordan Davis trade. Davis was paid like a cornerstone but played like a two-down run stopper. So a first and a second round pick after four and a half years of service is a deal Sean Green takes every time. Ryan Kramer keeps reminding everyone that Davis was one of two defensive captains, which does not move the needle much.
J.J. McCarthy Rushing Yards Sets Up A Middle
This is where the hosts split. Sean Green fades J.J. McCarthy, the guy Stephie Smalls calls Peter Pan, under 21.5 rush yards. He is starting on a short week with a hip pointer. Whatever adrenaline and whatever they shot him up with got him through the last game, but three days later a scrambling night feels unlikely. And if he gets banged up again and Jameis Winston comes in, the Giants are fine with that too. That makes the under the cleanest call on the board for Sean Green.
Ryan Kramer takes the other side, over 17.5 rush yards, and completely disagrees with the injury discount. Jameis ran five times for 27 yards last game without wanting to run at all. The weather should be sloppy, and the Washington defense is built around the blitz. Blitz plus man coverage leaves easy 15 and 17 yard lanes, and McCarthy came back from the hip to rip off a long run against the Eagles. Stephie Smalls leans over as well, since McCarthy is feeling the pressure after Jameis came in, looked better and scored. So with 17.5 on one ticket and 21.5 on the other, both hosts can win, and a little side bet went on top.
Skattebo Carries, The Chig Under And A Bomb Dart
Stephie Smalls wants Cam Skattebo over 12.5 rush attempts. He was kept out with Thursday in mind, and it has been made clear he will play. He has gone over this number in five of six games, and the Giants have a 100% win rate when he gets 16 or more carries. Washington is allowing almost 21 rush attempts per game, the weather looks bad, and with the doubts about McCarthy, handing it to Skattebo is the smart script. The guys also do not see a Jonathan Taylor or Breece Hall trade cutting into his work, because a defensive tackle is the likelier deadline move.
Sean Green goes under 4.5 catches for Chig Okonkwo, with a bit of juice. He had only four against the Giants last time, and that was a wild overtime game with passing on both sides. A rainy division rematch on a short week should keep him below it. Ryan Kramer counters that Chig caught the short Hail Mary last week and looks electric with the ball. Then Ryan Kramer swings for a Theo Johnson anytime touchdown at 9 to 1. Heavy personnel and play action suit him, since Manhertz is the pure blocker and Johnson can do a bit of both. It started as a grenade dart and ended up a bomb dart.
Stephie Smalls likes Malachi Fields over 24.5 receiving yards. Fields has been one of the quiet bright spots of the season, with 18 targets over the last three weeks and 47.3 yards per game over that stretch, and he has cleared this number in five of eight games. The sprinkle is his longest reception over 14.5, because he averages 15.2 yards per catch against a shaky Washington secondary. Next, Sean Green adds Isaiah Likely over 4.5 receptions after he caught 11 against Washington last game. Ryan Kramer likes him even more in an ugly game, running the junk middle-of-the-field role Nagy once gave Trey Burton.
The Underdog entry pairs Jayden Daniels higher on 0.5 fumbles lost with Likely higher on 4.5 receptions. The fumble leg is the call from Stephie Smalls, who thinks the Giants pass rush only gets nastier from here. Ryan Kramer loves it too, figuring Daniels has seen the tape of Joe Milton getting sent into another dimension. The guys stop at two legs instead of getting crazy. That ticket sits at a 7.87 multiplier, so a $100 entry returns $787.
First Touchdown Longshots And A Degen Tie
In the first touchdown market, Ryan Kramer plays no Commanders and goes big game hunting with the heavy Giants personnel. That means Malachi Fields at 20 to 1, Theo Johnson at 35 to 1, Chris Manhertz at 100 to 1 and Patrick Ricard at 110 to 1. Jameis is the real short-yardage guy, but the books do not list him. No touchdown is only 75 to 1, which is not a good price. Stephie Smalls also skips Washington, taking the Giants defense at 30 to 1 plus Fields. Meanwhile Sean Green keeps it to one per team: Theo Johnson at 35 to 1 and John Bates at 50 to 1.
Then the degen plays get weird. Ryan Kramer and Sean Green land on the same ticket, Theo Johnson to score two touchdowns at 110 to 1, because Washington is horrible against the tight end. Sean Green also wants the tie. Game ends in a tie is 70 to 1, but Ryan Kramer finds a same game parlay that stacks game tied again after 0-0 with game ends in a tie for 92 to 1. So the tie gets parlayed with the Johnson two-touchdown leg. Stephie Smalls, sitting in the rain, will lose it if this team ties again, and fires on Daniels throwing two interceptions plus a backup Washington tight end with zero targets, who played 45% of the snaps last week, finding the end zone.
The Vikings Win Total Gets An Under
The show circles back to Minnesota before signing off. Stephie Smalls reads a tweet saying Brian Flores should add this entire Vikings offense to his lawsuit, and Ryan Kramer says somebody needs to get critical of Kevin O’Connell. The Vikings started 6 and 0 and have dropped two straight, and they open at Green Bay with a schedule that has them favored in roughly half the remaining games. Sean Green guesses 10 and 7, so against a win total of 10.5 the lean is the under. Stephie Smalls agrees with that record. Also, Green Bay was laying 3 against Minnesota and is now laying 4.5, because the whole nation just got the Carson Wentz experience.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:46 Carson Wentz Disaster & Vikings Quarterbacks
11:22 Jell-O-Nator and Peter Pan
16:40 Jayden Daniels Under Passing Yards
18:50 Reece, Running Backs & Jordan Davis Trade
24:08 J.J. McCarthy Rushing Yards
28:07 Scat Rushing Attempts
30:33 Chigozie Under Catches
31:37 Theo Johnson Anytime Touchdown
33:24 Malachi Fields Receiving Yards
34:51 Isaiah Likely Over Receptions
36:30 Underdog Entry
39:02 First Touchdown Market
42:39 Theo Johnson Two Touchdowns & Tie Bet
47:12 Stephie Smalls Show & Utah Football
50:29 Vikings Win Total
53:44 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
