NFL Week 9 Recap & MNF Bombs! | Bottom Line Bombs Recap
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) runs through the NFL Week 9 recap, from a 2-3 week in the Circa Millions to Raiders and Niners fans brawling at the Circa. For Bills at Vikings on Monday Night Football, the bombs are the over and a stack of Carson Wentz ladders.
Bills And Vikings Bombs With Carson Wentz
Monday Night Football is Buffalo at Minnesota. The number moved the moment the Vikings named Carson Wentz the starter over Kyler Murray. The line dropped from three and a half to three, which tells you how bad Murray has been. The total sits at 45 or 45 and a half depending on where you look, and CJ Sullivan grabbed 44 and a half earlier in the day. He would lean toward the Vikings getting points, but the bomb is the over 45. So why the over? Because this Bills defense is bottom of the rung bad, and nobody talks about it.
The Buffalo defense was about to give up 40 to Baltimore. Then Lamar Jackson hurt his thumb on the first play, so what the Bills did after that doesn’t count for much. Wentz should create a little bit of offense against that unit. On the other side, Josh Allen gets Flores and his blitzing, which sets up strength on strength. Flores has even hinted in the press that blitzing Allen isn’t always the way to go after him. Also, the Vikings come home off a straight up and against the spread loss, and teams in that spot tend to collect points. The side stays a lean, and the over at 45 is the play.
The first prop is Justin Jefferson over 78 and a half yards, and the split is loud. With Wentz at quarterback, Jefferson averages 89.1 yards. With anyone else throwing to him, he averages 47.7. That is a massive gap, and Jefferson knows to get in Wentz’s ear and demand the ball. So this sets up as a big Jefferson game against a horrendous Buffalo secondary. The bomb is the over, plus a conservative step ladder on top. A 100-yard game is two to one, and 120 yards pays plus 391. Take Jefferson from 78 and a half up to 120 and let the Wentz connection do the work.
Climbing The Carson Wentz Ladders
CJ Sullivan has always been a Carson Wentz truther, and his Tim Wakefield comparison explains why. Watching Wentz is ugly, because the turnovers and sacks look disgusting in real time. But check the box score later and it usually isn’t that bad. He is still a former number two overall pick with an arm, and he is an upgrade on Murray. He is also a willing runner who knows he doesn’t get many chances. So the first ladder starts with his rushing prop at a low seven and a half yards. When he gets a chance, he will put his head down and do everything he can.
That seven and a half is the low rung, and the ladder climbs from there. Twenty rushing yards pays plus 335, and 25 yards is plus 536. Then 30 yards sits at plus 820, which is the top of the climb. Wentz isn’t a 50-yard rusher anymore. He is a guy who piles up a six here and an eight there, almost by accident. So the ladder runs from seven and a half all the way up to 30 yards. Climb it as high as you want, but 30 is where this one stops.
The number that jumped off the board was the anytime touchdown, first read at 14 to 1 and corrected to 13 to 1. That seems absurd for a perfect quarterback sneak guy. Kevin O’Connell isn’t concerned about his wellbeing, and Wentz can gut out a fourth and goal. Two touchdowns pay 150 to 1, so that rung goes on the slip too. Then there’s Wentz to score the first touchdown at home tonight at 50 to 1. Dawson Knox at 28 to 1 is the other first touchdown barrel, because he’s in the red zone just as much as Kincaid. Split them and let it ride.
Circa Millions Pain In The NFL Week 9 Recap
Another pedestrian week at the Circa Millions went two and three for CJ Sullivan, and the record on the year sits at 21-22-2. Add the two ties up the way the contest does and it’s 22-22, dead even. The sting is how it happened. Favorites went 13 and one straight up on Sunday and 10-3-1 against the spread. Only three favorites failed to cover, and he was on two of them. But the second quarter of the contest is over. So next week starts the third quarter, and it’s a clean slate for a bounce back.
The wins were the Bengals in Spain and the Texans. Cincinnati was the easy bank of the morning, because Ja’Marr Chase destroyed his matchup all game and Tee Higgins had a couple of touchdowns. Burrow ignored all the offseason talk about going under center and just kept throwing out of shotgun. Then the Texans cashed because the Chargers were finally a fade. Houston was doing Make-A-Wish stuff by the end, and Tank Dell got 100 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers did break their 0-for-37 drive streak, so give them that much.
Dallas minus four and a half lost by the hook in a 27-23 win over the Colts. The Cowboys led 17-7 and 20-10, and then the game went stupid on both sides. CeeDee Lamb went down untouched, got up and fumbled near the 10. The officials ruled his jewelry touched the ground, so it was Colts ball. Indianapolis then drove for a 23-20 lead, and Dallas scored late to win without covering. The Saints minus three were just as gross. They led the Browns by seven in overtime, then Harold Fannin blasted in and Cleveland went for two. New Orleans won by one, and the Browns got the cover.
The Panthers plus two and a half hurt the most. Carolina led Denver 14-13 with first and goal at the one. Bryce Young threw to a receiver who was clearly interfered with, the ball popped up and a Bronco caught it. Then Chuba Hubbard got stuffed on the next snap, and only after that did Sean Payton get his challenge. The replay turned it into an interception, and the interference was never reviewed. Denver went 99 yards the other way to take a 20-14 lead. He watched all of it on a flight home from Pittsburgh, screaming at his Red Zone feed.
Raiders, Niners And The Rest Of Sunday
The 49ers beat the Raiders 38-17, and CJ Sullivan was on the over, so that one cashed. The score says classic blowout, but the Raiders got hit with a lot of bad breaks. Michael Mayer fumbled at the one on first down. Later, Bowers looked like he scored, nobody challenged it, and an offensive pass interference call set up a Cousins interception. That was 14 points left on the field. But the real story was the fights. Videos of brawls in the stadium and inside the Circa bar were everywhere, so this rivalry might need a metal detector in the parking lot.
The Rams beat Washington 20-13, and Washington again botched the end of a game with a short throw from the 30 on the last play. Puka Nacua also got hurt on that final snap after the Rams lined him up everywhere. Then the Packers beat the Patriots 45-27 as Jordan Love torched Christian Gonzalez and vaulted up the MVP odds. Drake Maye threw some interceptions, but he has no wide receivers to throw to. The Sunday night game was the wildest, because Caleb threw three straight interceptions in the second quarter. And the Bears still beat Tampa Bay 27-24.
Diana Russini Is Back
Diana Russini is back with the Russini Report, and it had sports media Twitter buzzing all day. She left The Athletic after the affair with Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel, and now she wants to go right back to reporting on the NFL. CJ Sullivan figures the first episode draws a crowd because people want to hear about Vrabel. But if she skips that and just talks league news, nobody sticks around. He has nothing against her personally. His real gripe is insiders as personalities, because so many work for gambling companies and move markets. Nobody cares who breaks the news, as long as it is right.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:19 Welcome To Bottom Line Bombs
4:26 Buffalo vs. Minnesota Picks
10:36 Justin Jefferson Over 78 And A Half Yards
11:55 Carson Wentz Rushing And Touchdown Ladders
17:48 Circa Millions Two And Three
36:13 Raiders And Niners Fights At The Circa
40:42 Rams, Packers And Bears Sunday Games
49:04 Diana Russini Is Back
57:16 Sign-Off
