It’s hard to believe we’re past the half way point of the NFL season already! Time flies when you are having fun, no doubt. As we do each week, let’s take a look all the way back to the schedule release. We’ll compare it with this week and identify the NFL Week 10 biggest line moves and what the market is telling us.
Week 9 was a good one for us. The Jacksonville Jaguars had a massive line change on Thursday Night Football against the Ravens. We rode the change and easily cashed. Same story in the Texans game as we took them over the Chargers, also following the movement. We made it a clean sweep taking the Giants over the Eagles. All three games crossed zero, and in all three cases the books were correct on the line movement. Will that be the case in Week 10?
San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) to (-1.5)
San Francisco heads to Arlington, Texas this week to take on the Dallas Cowboys. Classic matchups like these are always fun with some of the most legendary teams in NFL history facing off. When the schedule released back in May they had the Cowboys as solid favorites of 4.5. Meaning they thought the Cowboys would be the better team at the time. Now, six months and nine weeks of football later, they think the 49ers are the much better team. Enough to be favorites on the road now.
They aren’t wrong, San Francisco has been taking care of business. The team is 7-1, their only blemish on an east coast trip to Atlanta before the bye week that snuck up on them. They are coming off a three touchdown win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 9. Seattle is the only team to keep the game within three points at the end of the day and the 49ers are 5-3 ATS. Dallas on the other hand is just 4-5 straight up and ATS. They struggled against a bad Colts team in Week 9 and lost to Arizona in Week 8. As 49er backers, we’re just lucky this number started all the way at +4.5, giving us great value at -1.5.
Pick: Follow the Movement – 49ers -1.5
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) to (+1.5)
This number hasn’t swung by a lot of points, but it has moved across zero. Making the 3-4 Carolina Panthers favored over the 3-4 New Orleans Saints in a battle for control over the NFC South that seemingly nobody wants. New Orleans opened the year taking the Lions to overtime, and then defeating the Baltimore Ravens and it looked like it would be a strong season for the team. It’s cooled off since. Last week they hardly snuck away with an overtime win over Shedauer Sanders.
Carolina had the wool pulled over our eyes early. They whooped up on the Falcons quarterbacked by Cooper Rush. They took down the Lions, but we’re blown out by the Bears and Buccaneers. Their only other win was another backup quarterback, Tanner McKee, who has since been benched by Philadelphia. They hung around with both the Packers and Broncos, but couldn’t get the job done. So, which team is better? The answer is it’s hard to trust either team. The line movements show the books think Carolina has the edge, but based on what? It feels like an overreaction. New Orleans has had Carolina’s number lately, winning five of the last six in this series. I’ll use that, and being a home-field underdog in a division matchup as the edge.
Pick: Fade the Movement – Saints +1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) to (-10)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are arguably the best team in the NFL right now. And they just keep getting better. Jacksonville had a busy Monday acquiring defensive tackle Jordan Davis, safety Jessie Bates III, and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux before Tuesday’s trade deadline. They’ve been blowing teams out and winning game after game.
Tennessee is a bad football team, plain and simple. They caught the Bengals napping in Week 8, and their lone win is over a bad Colts team. This line has moved a ton, across both the key numbers of three and seven. That begs the question: are the Jaguars 7.5 points better than the Titans compared to where the two teams were in March? The answer is a resounding yes. Jacksonville has owned this matchup lately. They’ve won four in a row and seven of the last eight games over the Titans. Last season, they won these games 41-7 and 25-3. Expect a lot more of that.
Pick: Follow the Movement – Jaguars -10
