College Football Picks Week 9 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) are joined by Colby Dant (@thecolbyd) of The College Football Experience for their Week 9 college football picks. It ends with Iowa minus 3.5 as the consensus play and Ryan Kramer standing alone on Utah at Cincinnati.
A 10 AM Holy War Kickoff Blows Up The Road Trip
The TV executives handed Utah and BYU a 10 AM local kickoff for the Holy War, and that one call wrecked the travel plan. Sean Green and Ryan Kramer wrap their Friday show in Vegas at 10 PM. So the new plan is a rental car and an overnight drive to Salt Lake, with maybe a couple hours of sleep before the train to Rice-Eccles Stadium. The tickets at least came at a good price. Ryan Kramer and their buddy Stash locked them in on a Monday morning, and the game time dropped about 30 minutes later. Serious CLV on the tickets.
Colby Dant from The College Football Experience is back on the show with a long card. Before any of it, the guys spend time on Pat McAfee getting roasted over Utah. The video that seemed to set him off showed a couple of kids playfully doing McAfee impressions. That looks harmless, so the guys figure something else must have happened that nobody knows about yet. Then the show wanders through Bear Bachmeier‘s naked family dinners, a $100 five-team moneyline parlay from Moneyline Mac and a long detour into Rumple Minze and Goldschläger before the first line goes up.
Week 9 College Football Picks Start With Troy And The Points
Thursday opens in Harrisonburg, and all three guys take Troy plus 20.5 against JMU. Colby Dant makes the case for a veteran Troy team that got caught in a classic look-ahead spot. ULM, which had been winless, knocked them off with JMU already on deck. He thinks JMU is good, but not three touchdowns good, and he has JMU winning by about 10. Sean Green adds that JMU running back George Pettaway is out. Ryan Kramer also sees a dream crusher spot for a JMU team that was in the playoff conversation. The number was still 20.5 when they checked it live.
The other Thursday game is North Texas minus 13.5 against Florida Atlantic, and nobody wants the Owls. FAU got lucky last week when Rice missed a game-winning field goal in a 51-49 loss. Rice piled up 608 yards in that game, 500 of them on the ground. That is the problem for FAU, because its run defense ranks 137th while North Texas averages 5.2 yards per carry. Colby Dant lays the 13.5. Ryan Kramer says bet it now, since he expects this one to close on the other side of 14.
Friday brings a spot Sean Green calls college football handicapping 101. UCF fans were on the field last week, Baylor just fired Dave Aranda, and Baylor is catching 1.5. Always fade the field storm. Colby Dant likes Joe Klanderman, the former Kansas State defensive coordinator who was hired this year, and he points to a Baylor defense that has played well. UCF wants to run the ball, and Baylor is good at stopping the run. Add a fresh coach-fired bump and the guys are on Baylor.
Sac State is the one that splits the room. Kent State is laying 9.5 on the sheet and 10 at Circa, and it has to travel to the Nest for a Friday night kick after winning the Wagon Wheel against Akron. Colby Dant calls Sac State outright, noting the defenses rank 84th and 83rd and Kent State’s offense sits at 137. Sean Green agrees that this offense can’t lay 10 on the West Coast. But Ryan Kramer stays away, because Sac State has covered just twice this year and has been getting beat to the number by over 10 points. Colby Dant also likes Charlotte plus 10.5 against Tulane with a moneyline sprinkle.
Arizona, Iowa And A Pile Of Big Ten Points
Saturday starts in Lubbock, and all three guys take Arizona plus 3.5 against Texas Tech. Colby Dant thinks Texas Tech just isn’t that good this year. Arizona’s only loss came at BYU, and he rates BYU as the better team. Sean Green expects a game that comes down to a field goal, so the hook matters. Boston College at Duke is the first real split. Duke is laying 7 at Circa, and Colby Dant and Sean Green take the Eagles, who are 4-3 under Bill O’Brien with Mason McKenzie playing well at quarterback. Ryan Kramer defaults to Duke off extra rest. He also admits he agreed too much last week.
Iowa minus 3.5 against Wisconsin is the closest thing to a sure thing on the card. Iowa laid an egg at Minnesota, where turnovers did the damage. But Iowa is 50-35 ATS off a loss under Kirk Ferentz since 2003, and now it gets Wisconsin at home. Colby Dant says the Badgers had only 200 yards last week and their best offensive game was probably 284 against Notre Dame. So he calls this a lock and sees a score like 17-3. The guys also take the under on Wisconsin’s team total of 16.5, which should please the listener who complains they never give out a total.
Two big spreads both get the points. BYU lays 16.5 to Arizona State with the Holy War next week, and Mikey Keene is questionable, so a true freshman might start for the Sun Devils. Even so, Colby Dant likes Kenny Dillingham as a dog, and Sean Green sees BYU winning by about 14. Then there is Indiana laying 20.5 to Minnesota, a number that opened 19.5 and has the guys scratching their heads. Indiana is 1-7 ATS, Hoover is banged up, and Colby Dant has Minnesota as the 17th-ranked defense in the country. Everyone takes Minnesota.
Northwestern plus 3.5 at Oregon is the Chip Kelly revenge game, and it produces another split. Colby Dant lays it with Oregon because of the travel, even with the Wildcats coming off a bye. Sean Green and Ryan Kramer go the other way. Dante Moore is done for the season, Evan Stewart is out after a DUI, and four of Oregon’s top five receivers missed last week. Meanwhile, Northwestern brings the kind of physicality Oregon has struggled with, and the hosts expect the Wildcats to run it right at them.
Rivalry Saturday Splits The Table
Georgia lays 11.5 to Florida in Atlanta, where the world’s largest outdoor cocktail party now happens under a roof. Colby Dant and Sean Green take the Gators in a rivalry game, with Florida coming off its upset of Texas. Ryan Kramer lays it with Georgia, because Florida has been inconsistent and Georgia has had time to stew on the Auburn loss. Then he backs his Utes at Cincinnati, laying 6.5 in a look-ahead spot before the Holy War. The other two pick Cincinnati. Satterfield keeps winning big games while fans want him fired, and Colby Dant thinks Utah’s resume is thinner than it looks.
South Carolina plus 4.5 at Oklahoma gets all three votes. Oklahoma scored 14 points at home against New Mexico, sits at minus seven in turnover differential and has a bottom-10 rushing attack. Sean Green sees a 21-17 game and would only touch Oklahoma at 3 or less. Georgia Southern minus 5.5 against App State works the same way from a different angle. App State just stormed the field, and fading a field storm is close to an automatic play. The line moved from 3.5 to 5.5. Colby Dant also likes the Georgia Southern air raid against a weak App State pass defense.
Florida State laying 6.5 to Clemson draws another split. Colby Dant and Sean Green lay it with Florida State off a bye, because Clemson’s offense is a mess and has to travel. Ryan Kramer takes Clemson and the points out of respect for Dabo. Out west, Ohio State lays 6.5 at USC without Julian Sayin, and the Buckeyes haven’t won a regular-season game at the Coliseum since 1946. Colby Dant plays USC on the moneyline, citing young quarterbacks crossing three time zones. The other two come along, though neither loves this USC team.
Miami lays 14.5 at North Carolina with Notre Dame on deck for the Hurricanes, and all three take UNC. Ryan Kramer calls it one of his favorite plays of the day, believes UNC has beaten Miami five straight and still isn’t buying the Mensah hype. Circa sits at 14, which Sean Green reads as sharp support for UNC. The late game is Army plus 6.5 at Memphis. Colby Dant lays it with Memphis and its strong defensive line. The hosts take Army, because the triple option uglies up games and they don’t trust this Memphis defense to slow it down.
Locks, Dogs And Teases For The Card
Colby Dant leads off the lock, dog and tease with four locks: Boston College plus 7, Iowa minus 3.5, Georgia Southern minus 5.5 and Memphis minus 6.5. The hosts take that last one as proof he hates America. His dog is Cincinnati on the moneyline at plus 200, and he adds a Boston College and Cincinnati moneyline parlay. His teaser runs Boston College up to 13, Memphis down to a half and Baylor up to 7.5, because he does not see BC losing by 14.
Sean Green goes Iowa minus 3.5, Minnesota plus 20.5, South Carolina plus 4.5 and Cincinnati plus 6.5 after backing off UNC late. His dog is Arizona State at plus 550, betting that Dillingham has a game in him. His teaser goes Florida State down to a half, North Texas down to 7.5 and Army up to 12.5. Ryan Kramer counters with UNC plus 14.5, Utah minus 6.5, South Carolina plus 4.5 and Northwestern plus 3.5. He takes Arizona on the moneyline at plus 134 as his dog, then teases Arizona State up to 22, Minnesota up to 26.5 and Georgia down to 5.5.
The group parlay strings together three moneyline dogs: Arizona, USC and UNC. Then the card comes together with Iowa minus 3.5 as the consensus play, plus Boston College plus 7, Arizona plus 3.5, Minnesota plus 20.5, Georgia Southern minus 5.5, UNC plus 14.5 and South Carolina plus 4.5. Colby Dant is on every one of them. The only leg that worries him is Minnesota, because a line that makes no sense usually means some quarterback news is coming. The goal is catching the Mac in the Box guys, who are still pacing ahead.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:45 Holy War Game Time Nightmare
6:09 Pat McAfee Roasted Over Utah
13:58 Bear Bachmeier Naked Family Dinner
18:31 Tiny Desk Video & McIntosh Parlay
23:59 Rumple Minze & Goldschläger Memories
32:42 College Basketball Thursday & Eli Manning
38:20 Troy vs. JMU Picks
45:52 Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas Picks
55:08 Baylor vs. UCF Picks
1:01:49 Kent State vs. Sac State Picks
1:09:06 Arizona vs. Texas Tech Picks
1:13:24 Boston College vs. Duke Picks
1:17:33 Wisconsin vs. Iowa Picks
1:22:34 Arizona State vs. BYU Picks
1:26:47 Minnesota vs. Indiana Picks
1:30:54 Northwestern vs. Oregon Picks
1:33:30 Florida vs. Georgia Picks
1:36:53 Utah vs. Cincinnati Picks
1:41:24 South Carolina vs. Oklahoma Picks
1:46:17 App State vs. Georgia Southern Picks
1:51:53 Clemson vs. Florida State Picks
1:57:08 Ohio State vs. USC Picks
2:02:07 Miami vs. North Carolina Picks
2:05:16 Army vs. Memphis Picks
2:07:58 Lock, Dog and Tease
2:20:04 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
