Last week’s picks were disgusting. Onward and upward. We’ve hit a cold streak. However, we’re bouncing back. I’ve still got a winning record, but even I know I have to be careful now. No longer playing with house money, I need to really focus and get this right. Not just for you, but for myself as well. I don’t just write these picks down on a piece of paper and then write about them. I bet them. Let’s take a look at my top FCS Week 5 picks, and let’s get back into a winning weekend.
FCS Week 5 Picks And Best Bets
Montana State (-15.5) @ Idaho
Friday, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN
Idaho is 0-4 and giving up 42 points a game. That part of the bet is easy. Here’s the part that isn’t. Montana State is walking into the Kibbie Dome without Justin Lamson, Adam Jones, and both Dowler twins. However, they didn’t need Lamson and Taco Dowler to beat a pretty decent Northern Arizona team 28-14. That game was at home, and this one is on the road, where Idaho hasn’t lost to Montana State since 1990.
The Bobcats are still on a 19-game winning streak. The Vandals’ defense has no interceptions this year. This could end up being close, but I don’t think it is. Montana State has the confidence and the better roster, even with backups in. The Bobcats will cover 15.5, because Idaho hasn’t shown it can hang for four quarters with a top-five roster. Even if it is shorthanded.
FCS Week 5 Best Bet: Montana State -15.5
Brown At Rhode Island (-3.5)
Saturday, Noon ET
Rhode Island is 2-3 and just lost to North Carolina A&T, 22-18, after a game with four turnovers. That’s not a clean favorite profile. However, Brown is an opponent, and the Rams still own the longest active home winning streak in the FCS. They just don’t lose at home.
URI already blew out Elon 31-10 at home before having two road losses. Getting Brown at home is a perfect get-right spot for them. Tyler Budge has enough to win this game. A 3.5-point number against an Ivy team, in a building where this program doesn’t lose, is the right side of a short spread.
Don’t get me wrong, Brown looked convincing in the second half of that Harvard game. However, that was Harvard. Rhode Island will roll.
FCS Week 5 Best Bet: Rhode Island -3.5
Fordham At Lehigh (-22.5)
Saturday, Noon ET
Lehigh is 5-0, 3-0 in the Patriot League, and riding a 15-game conference winning streak. Fordham is 1-4 and just lost at home to Stony Brook 31-16. On talent, this is a four-touchdown game. Hayden Johnson being out at quarterback is why this is sitting at 22.5. However, do they need him to in order to dominate?
The Mountain Hawks have covered big numbers by running the game clock and playing with a strong defense. Fordham doesn’t have the line to keep this close if Lehigh can score quickly on its first few possessions. Sure, 22.5 is a lot. They haven’t had a big cover for a couple of weeks. However, the Rams have not looked like a team that can hang within three scores of a ranked opponent.
FCS Week 5 Best Bets: Lehigh -22.5
Elon At New Hampshire
Saturday 1 PM ET
I just can’t quit New Hampshire’s fight. Elon is 4-1 and just put 43 points up on Maine. New Hampshire is only 1-4 and lost 20-13 to Sacred Heart. The record says lay the points. However, the matchup doesn’t.
Elon already lost 31-10 at Rhode Island. That is the same tier of CAA team people are using to prop this number up, and the Phoenix were not competitive. UNH’s offense has been stuck in the teens, but a home dog getting double-digit points against a team that just got blasted is a great spot.
New Hampshire doesn’t need to win, although I think they’re capable of doing so. Either way, this feels like just a touchdown game and not a 10.5-point game. I hope I’m right, because this New Hampshire team is fun to watch when they’re clicking.
FCS Week 5 Best Bet: New Hampshire +10.5
South Dakota State At Illinois State (+2.5)
Saturday, 7 PM ET
This is the game of the week in the Valley, and the number is on the wrong team. South Dakota State is second in the country and 4-1, but the Jackrabbits are walking into Normal without their starting quarterback again. That absense was servivable against Eastern Illinois. It’s a different ask against a top-10 Illinois State team that already has a conference loss and can’t afford another.
Illinois State is 4-1 and plays really well at home. The Redirds’ defense has been the thing that travels well and the Jackrabbit offense built on the run still has to finish drives against a team that knows the script. I don’t just like the +2.5, I like the +108 moneyline.
I just can’t lay the points with a backup quarterback on the road against a solid Illinois State team.
FCS Week 5 Best Bet: Illinois Sate +2.5 (and +108 on the Moneyline)
