College Football Picks Week 4 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) are joined by Colby Dant (@thecolbyd) of The College Football Experience for the college football week 4 picks, 18 games running from Thursday night in Conway to Saturday night in Starkville. Additionally they hand out four locks apiece, a moneyline dog each, a teaser card and a three-leg moneyline parlay that prices near 30-1. Ten of those 18 games came back unanimous. The guys treat that as a warning rather than a green light.
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CJ Bailey took a snap in his own end zone with six seconds left and a 100 percent win probability, ran forward instead of out the back, got strip-sacked, and Vanderbilt fell on it in the end zone. Officials then put a second back on the clock so the extra point could get the three and a half home. Only one other loss since 2000 has come from that win probability. That was the Michigan State fumbled punt, and Ryan had money on that one too. He called this one a fireable offense. Sean pointed out that the interception setting it up should have gone further, except celebrating teammates shoved the returner out of bounds. Sean and Ryan had handicapped the handicapper and faded Colby’s NC State pick. Never a doubt.
The College Football Week 4 Picks The Room Agreed On
Ten of the 18 came back unanimous, which is usually the kiss of death. All three are on Liberty -2.5 in Jamey Chadwell’s homecoming at Coastal Carolina, Temple +3.5 as a Friday home dog, Wake Forest +12.5 at Louisville, Ole Miss +3.5 in the Swamp, Cal -1.5 over Clemson, Iowa +4.5 at Michigan, West Virginia -1.5 against Oklahoma State, USC +2.5 against Oregon, Penn State -9.5 over Wisconsin and Mississippi State -5.5 against Missouri. The Ole Miss number is the one that nagged at them. It opened at a point and a half and had climbed to three and a half by the time they taped, with the starting running back still a game-time call.
Cal was the easiest one. Clemson flies cross-country for a Friday night kick with a true freshman making his first road start. Dabo Swinney looked washed running down the hill last week, and Circa had the game at a pick when they checked. The guys also spent a while on Clemson’s lightning delays, three in three games this season, including one that stopped North Carolina inside the 10 with seven minutes left and the momentum gone. Wake ran a close second. Gio Lopez should have his legs back after getting dinged against Purdue. The staff is full of North Dakota State guys who won nine games last year. Wake also hung around in the second half of a 13-point loss to Miami. Now they get 12.5.
Ryan can’t watch Michigan anymore, not after UTEP pushed them around physically while the flags kept coming. Kirk Ferentz as a road dog is 8-4-1 against the spread since 2021. Ryan’s read is simple: the wrong team is favored. This Iowa team also knows how to score now. Colby was already there, pointing at Bryce Underwood walking into a Phil Parker defense and noting the Oklahoma win only happened because of a pick six that kept it out of overtime. Ryan took Iowa on the moneyline as well. Michigan goes on the hate list, fade them every week from here on out.
The Locks, The Dog And A Parlay At 30-1
Colby locked Wake Forest +12.5, Iowa State +9.5, Texas -3.5 and Texas A&M +9.5, then took the Aggies at +280 as his moneyline dog. He is alone on the Cyclones getting 9.5 while Sean and Ryan lay it with Utah. Sean is alone on Tennessee +3.5 after the other two laid the number with Texas in Knoxville. Colby paired the Longhorns and the Aggies into what he called the Texas two step, leaning on Mike Elko being 2-0 against LSU. His teaser legs buy USC up to 8.5, Temple up to 9.5 and Iowa up to 10.5, with the note that Iowa was already available at 11.5.
Sean’s card is Iowa +4.5, Penn State -9.5, USC +2.5 and Mississippi State -5.5, with Wake +390 as his moneyline dog and teasers on USC, Tennessee and Temple. He is not a believer in Dante Moore right now. That is how he got to the USC side, and he will happily eat the chalk with Mississippi State. Ryan grabbed West Virginia -1.5 when nobody else would lock up Moneyline Mac’s team, added Wake +12.5, faded Dabo with Cal, took Iowa again, and wants Ole Miss +128 to win outright in Gainesville. His teasers buy USC up to 8.5, Boise State down to 1.5 and Utah down to 3.5.
The splits are where Ryan ate the chalk. He laid 13.5 with Georgia against Colby’s Sooners, and Colby’s case was that Oklahoma still has a top five defense while Georgia has not played one yet. He laid 12.5 with Alabama. Colby and Sean took the points with South Carolina, both figuring Beamer covers here even on the hot seat. He laid 7.5 with Boise State while both of them backed Western Michigan at home, in a game Colby argued is the real Group of Five playoff decider. And he laid 6.5 with Kansas State against Colby’s Cincinnati. His own explanation: he needed to get back to his roots of laying nice numbers.
The parlay is Wake Forest and Iowa on the moneyline, which Ryan priced live on the show at about 12.5-1. Add Ole Miss as a third leg and it pays roughly 30-1. The seven consensus contest plays are Wake +12.5, Penn State -9.5, West Virginia -1.5, Texas A&M +9.5, Mississippi State -5.5, Iowa +4.5 and Cal laying the point and a half. Colby opened that card with Wake. Ryan added Iowa on the grounds that Michigan is a terrible team, and Cal went on last as the consensus play. Their own verdict on the whole thing: “I don’t love all of these. So that’s probably a good sign.”
Watch: Virginia vs West Virginia Prediction, Picks & Best Bets | College Football Week 3
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:43 Virginia Tech’s Win, Moneyline Mac’s Cash-In & NC State’s Historic Meltdown
20:48 Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina Picks
25:50 Army vs. Temple Picks
34:29 Northwestern vs. Indiana Picks
38:20 Clemson vs. Cal Picks
46:51 Texas vs. Tennessee Picks
51:13 Wake Forest vs. Louisville Picks
55:12 Ole Miss vs. Florida Picks
58:57 Oklahoma vs. Georgia Picks
1:02:03 Boise State vs. Western Michigan Picks
1:05:13 Iowa vs. Michigan Picks
1:07:41 Wisconsin vs. Penn State Picks
1:11:17 Utah vs. Iowa State Picks
1:14:19 South Carolina vs. Alabama Picks
1:17:26 Kansas State vs. Cincinnati Picks
1:21:56 Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia Picks
1:24:39 Texas A&M vs. LSU Picks
1:27:59 Oregon vs. USC Picks
1:30:39 Missouri vs. Mississippi State Picks
1:33:24 Locks, Dogs & Teasers
1:46:28 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
