NFL Picks Week 1 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) break down their NFL Week 1 picks against the spread, a side on every one of the 16 openers. Additionally they set the Circa Million card and both Survivor entries, with Sean planting his flag on the Dolphins and Ryan laying the points with the Raiders.
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The NFL Week 1 Picks, Game By Game
Fifteen years into picking every NFL game against the spread, the guys treat opening week like Christmas morning. Sean has no patience for the crowd claiming football snuck up on them. He has been waiting like a caged animal for real games to pick. Most of the board, the two of them agreed on. Both took Seattle -3 over New England to open Wednesday night. From there they stacked the 49ers +3.5 in Australia, Tampa Bay +3.5 in Cincinnati, the Colts +3.5 against Baltimore, and Pittsburgh -3.5 at home against Atlanta.
The rest of the consensus came fast. They grabbed Houston +1 with Buffalo in town, Minnesota -1.5 against Green Bay, and Denver +2.5 walking into Kansas City. Sean leaned on the Super Bowl loser angle for Seattle, a side sitting 6-20 against the spread the year after the loss. On top of that he cited the Week 1 dog trend, 53-30 since 2005 once the number reaches a touchdown or more. Ryan liked the McVay against Shanahan history, where the underdog has gone 13-2 since 2019. Meanwhile the Rams faced thirty-plus hours on a plane before that Thursday kickoff in Australia.
The splits are where it got loud. Sean took the Browns getting 8.5 in Jacksonville. Ryan laid it the other way with the Jaguars, trusting Deshaun Watson, who is 7-0 straight up in his career against that team. Then came Carolina. Sean wanted the Panthers +3, and Ryan called himself a donkey and laid the three with the Bears. Sean also bought the Saints +7 in Detroit while Ryan rode the Lions. Still, the loudest argument was Miami. Sean stood alone on the Dolphins +3.5 in Las Vegas, and Ryan was all over the Raiders -3.5.
Locks, Dogs And Circa Contests
From there the guys set their locks. Sean locked Pittsburgh -3 and Tampa Bay +3.5. Then he added a bonus lock on the Eagles -4.5 at home against Washington. His dog was the Dolphins moneyline at +160. Ryan locked the Colts +3.5 and, with a straight face, the Raiders -3.5. He stacked Minnesota -1.5 on top as a bonus. For his dog he grabbed the Jets moneyline at +105. After that both guys built three-team teasers off the Chargers, tugged down to -2.5.
The shared Circa Million card reads Bucs +3.5, Colts +3.5, Steelers -3.5, Vikings -1.5, and Texans +1. They landed on those five by ducking the Wednesday and Thursday kickoffs and the fattest spreads. On Survivor they fired two entries. The first was the Chargers, mapped out before the show even started. The second was the Steelers, taken over Jacksonville on purpose. Going that way got them off the crowded pile and banked a Week 16 home game against Carolina. Ryan also ran money-line round robins, one built around the Colts, the Bucs and the Niners.
The contests ran right alongside the card. Phrase That Pays came first. It is a $1,000 NFL future, and the guys bumped it 10% to $1,100 for the creative entries. Someone sent in a potato with a silica packet. Another fan mailed a full set of mini-helmets, one per team. In the end the pot went to Nick Masney, on a phrase his seven-year-old wrote and faxed in on the last sheet through the machine. Meanwhile the Freeroll Football Contest stays open before Week 2. It pays $3,000 to the winner, or $4,000 if you are a Patreon member.
This Week's Matchups
Watch: The NFL Is Back
Podcast Chapters
00:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
00:51 Football Snuck Up On Everybody
04:19 Contests & Giveaways
16:39 Seahawks vs. Patriots Picks
27:00 Rams vs. 49ers Picks
38:06 Jaguars vs. Browns Picks
44:54 Bengals vs. Buccaneers Picks
52:37 Colts vs. Ravens Picks
57:15 Steelers vs. Falcons Picks
01:02:39 Texans vs. Bills Picks
01:08:23 Panthers vs. Bears Picks
01:12:08 Titans vs. Jets Picks
01:15:32 Lions vs. Saints Picks
01:19:25 Chargers vs. Cardinals Picks
01:28:33 Raiders vs. Dolphins Picks
01:34:53 Eagles vs. Commanders Picks
01:46:30 Vikings vs. Packers Picks
01:51:55 Giants vs. Cowboys Picks
01:58:09 Chiefs vs. Broncos Picks
02:05:11 Locks, Dogs & Teases
02:09:31 Circa Million
02:11:43 Circa Survivor
02:17:38 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
