Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction & Picks: NFL Week 1

The Sports Gambling Podcast closes out the Week 1 board with a Broncos vs Chiefs prediction for Monday night in Kansas City, where the Chiefs are laying just 2.5 and the total sits at 43. This one is clipped from NFL Picks Week 1 (Ep. 2680), where Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) handicapped every game on the slate.

Broncos vs Chiefs Odds

Kansas City is a short home favorite at Arrowhead: Chiefs -2.5, with the total set at 43. The guys kept circling back to how thin that spread is for a Monday night division game, and how much they liked Denver getting the points with the number sitting under a field goal.

Our Picks

Ryan Kramer’s pick: Broncos +2.5
Sean Green’s pick: Broncos +2.5

The guys came around to the same side here after leaning Kansas City in their way-too-early look. The big one is up front: Chiefs left tackle Josh Simmons is not expected to play, and they don’t think that is factored into the line, especially against a Denver defense they rate highly. Layer on Patrick Mahomes sitting at 1-8-1 ATS over his last 10 divisional starts and Sean Payton’s slow history in Weeks 1 and 2 (3-20 ATS, most of that in New Orleans), and the trends stacked up on the dog.

They like this Broncos roster on its own merits too: the offensive line, Bo Nix taking a step, the Jalen Waddle addition, and Payton running the show. With Week 1 Monday night underdogs strong historically, both guys landed on Broncos +2.5 and flagged it as a spot they would happily drop into a teaser.