AFC East Preview & Vegas Recap Podcast Recap
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) is back from eight of the last eleven days in Las Vegas, and he opens this AFC East preview with the damage from Circa Survivor sign-up weekend. Then he goes through the whole division and ends on the Bills over and the Dolphins under.
Vegas, 105 Degrees And A Hawaii Bad Beat
The sign-up weekend went fine. The seats did not. CJ spent an afternoon roasting in 105-degree heat watching college football week zero. That is roughly the temperature where a betting man starts questioning his life choices. Then Hawaii took the lead out of nowhere. The whole room turned on him at once. He also met an absolute legend in Miami Mac, which is the sort of thing that only happens on a trip where the blinds get blurred. There is $20 million on the line in the Circa contest, and CJ is honest about what chasing that does to a person. Eight of eleven days out there will scramble anybody. He went to bed early on the last night and it was 11:30.
The AFC East Preview Starts With Two Ten And A Halfs
Buffalo is the favorite at -125 to win the division. The win total is 10.5. That number is not a mystery. The Bills have won at least 10 games in seven straight seasons, so the market is charging you for a thing they actually do. What changed is the sideline. Sean McDermott is gone. Joe Brady moves up from offensive coordinator and Jim Leonard takes the defense. New England sits right behind them at +125 with the same 10.5 win total. They are 16-1 to win the Super Bowl and +750 to win the AFC. CJ’s read is that the disrespect era is over and the steam has already arrived.
He also flags the uncomfortable part. Last year’s Patriots were extremely lucky with the schedule. They won a pile of one-score games, and teams that live in one-score games do not always get to live there twice. That is the whole case against the number. It is also why CJ ends up on the under rather than talking himself into a team he otherwise likes. The price assumes the luck repeats. Nothing in the profile says it has to.
Miami And The Jets Are Playing A Different Sport
Then comes the big drop down. Miami’s win total is 4.5. They are 350-1 to win the Super Bowl, 150-1 to win the AFC, and 40-1 to win a four-team division. CJ’s explanation is short. They are not good. They carry a record-setting amount of dead money and are filling the roster with whatever they can find. Malik Willis is the quarterback. A 40-1 price in a four-team division usually means the book has already made up its mind, and here it is hard to argue with them.
The Jets are at 5.5, with 200-1 Super Bowl odds, 86-1 for the AFC and 19-1 in the East. There is excitement around this team and CJ does not really get it. So he goes to the tape on last year’s defense. They finished 30th in opponent EPA per play, 31st in sacks and 32nd in opponent EPA per pass. They also finished with zero interceptions. Not one, across a full season. That is the unit people are calling a strength, and it is the reason CJ keeps the number where it is.
So where does the card land? CJ wants the Bills over and the Jets over, with the Patriots under and the Dolphins under. He adds a look at Jets tight end Mason Taylor on the way out. Somebody has to go over in this division, and he would rather it be the team that has done it seven years running than the one that just discovered it had no interceptions.
Podcast Chapters
00:00 Download The SGPN App Today!
01:30 Welcome To Bottom Line Bombs
02:52 Back From Vegas: Circa Survivor Weekend
08:36 105 Degrees, Bad Beats & Miami Mac
18:33 Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Wins
29:03 New England Patriots: 10.5 Wins
41:02 Miami Dolphins: 4.5 Wins
51:36 New York Jets: 5.5 Wins
59:39 AFC East Best Bets
1:04:17 Thank You For Participating In The Sports Gambling Podcast
