NFL Week 8 Contest Bombs With Kevin Bozeman! | Bottom Line Bombs Recap
CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) brings in a guest to break down the NFL Week 8 Circa Millions picks, along with Panthers at Packers on Thursday night and a handful of college football sides. Both of them land on Patriots minus 7, and the guest calls Ole Miss minus 12.5 over Auburn his number one play.
Carolina Bounces Back At Lambeau
CJ Sullivan opens with a victory lap. The Brewers won the World Series in five, and the minus game and a half series price cashed. But the MVP ticket on Bryce bricked, because Contreras took the award. Then it’s straight to Thursday Night Football, where Green Bay hosts Carolina at 3.5 with a total of 46.5.
The Panthers just got run over at home by Tampa Bay, one of the more embarrassing home losses of the season. But that is exactly the spot the Man in the Box wants. Under Canales, Carolina is 8-2 against the spread off a straight-up loss. And over the last four games off a loss, the Panthers are 4-0 straight up and against the spread. So the bomb is Carolina +3.5, with a sprinkle on the moneyline at +160. Green Bay is playing much better than it did in September, and the offensive line has cleaned up. Then again, the Packers just took a body blow in Detroit. Also, this Carolina team got embarrassed, but it hasn’t quit, and that’s the kind of team worth backing.
Tucker Kraft’s receiving number sits at 43.5 yards, and the play is over 40 laddered up to 70. That ladder pays +120 at 50 yards, 2-1 at 60 and 3-1 at 70. But the real angle is both backfields. Carolina has allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the league with 11, and Green Bay is second with nine. So the first parlay is Josh Jacobs and Chuba Hubbard to both score, at +226. Then the ladder gets nuts. Jacobs for two touchdowns is +390, Hubbard for two is +500, and the two together pay 27-1. That’s a full Thursday slate in Green Bay, and every piece of it leans on the same leaky run defenses.
The NFL Week 8 Circa Millions Picks
Last week’s contest card went 4-1, with the Giants and Colts cashing alongside Denver and Seattle. Philadelphia was the lone loss, and it stung. So the season sits at 16-17-2 heading into Week 8, and the goal is a 5-0 sweep. The Eagles are now off the card for good, because that defense barely got into its stances on Monday night. Also, there’s no Monday game on the card this week. Chicago and Seattle is tempting after the Bears landed Jeffrey Simmons from Tennessee, a move that pushed the line down to three. But nobody wants to wait until Monday night to learn whether the week is a winner.
The guys agree on New England -7 at Miami as the fifth play. The Patriots get 10 days of rest, and the Dolphins just celebrated a win over the Jets like it was their Super Bowl. Then there’s the crowd, which should be mostly Patriots fans anyway. Jacksonville -10 against the Colts is the other easy call. Indianapolis is selling off players, and the ones left behind want out too. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are finally home after the Europe trip and a bye. And Jacksonville classically destroys the Colts down there. Laying 10 is a lot of points, but this Colts team already knows the season is over.
Denver is the play both guys lock in together. The guest points out the Broncos beat Jacksonville, the Rams and Seattle at home, in games nobody thought Denver could win. So the guest skips the points entirely and takes the moneyline. CJ Sullivan backs it with a revenge angle from the season opener, when Kansas City handled Denver. Also, the Chiefs have almost no wide receivers right now, and Denver has historically played Mahomes well. Then comes the pick that doesn’t make sense on paper, the Chargers +6.5 or 7 against the Rams. The Chargers are off a bye and get Joe Alt back. Meanwhile, the Rams are banged up and nowhere near as explosive as last year.
The game of the week took the most back-and-forth. Buffalo is -3 at home against Baltimore, coming off a bye, while the Ravens are coming off an embarrassing loss. The guest won’t touch the side, because a late Ravens lead and a Bills close-out could land anywhere near the number. If forced, it’s the over all day, and the total is around 54 after a 41-40 shootout last year. So the final contest entry is Denver, the Chargers, New England, Jacksonville and Buffalo -3. Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay were both in the mix for that last spot. But the rested Bills off the bye won out.
The Props And The Plays That Missed The Card
Miami gives up the fourth-most receptions to running backs and the second-most receptions to tight ends. So the Patriots prop work writes itself. Rhamondre Stevenson’s receptions sit at 2.5, and the ladder pays +250 for four catches and +560 for five. The guest wrote that five-catch number down on the spot. Then there’s backup tight end Eli Rairdon, who should be on the field the whole second half if New England blows this open. Take the overs on 1.5 receptions and 17.5 yards. Also, his anytime touchdown is 4-1, and four catches pays +600 for anyone who wants to climb.
Tampa Bay -2.5 against Atlanta is the guest’s play, paired with Penix under 232.5 passing yards. The Falcons partied after beating the Niners, and Penix is back on the road after three straight home games. CJ Sullivan likes Tampa too, but it fell just short of the contest card. Pittsburgh is the other one. The guest took the Steelers -3, bet it down to -2.5 at -149, and added the moneyline at -190. Cleveland hasn’t been good on the road, and Deshaun Watson still isn’t good at football right now. The only worry is the Steelers coming back from Paris without a bye. But it’s a short trip home, not a cross-country flight.
Saturday College Football Plays
The guest’s college card starts with Minnesota +20.5 against Indiana. The Hoosiers have covered once this year, against Rutgers, and the total sits at 41. So the market is basically projecting 31-10, and that math doesn’t add up against a Big Ten slugfest team. Next is Illinois -2.5 at Maryland. CJ Sullivan worries about a letdown after a big storm-the-field win, plus the Terps’ new-coach bump after Locksley’s firing. But the guest thinks Illinois is seven points better and that Maryland’s players are already making plans to leave. Then there’s Iowa over Wisconsin, with a lean to the over because nobody wants that game under 37.
Two blowouts round it out. Notre Dame lays 30 to Navy, and the number doesn’t matter here. Every year the Irish take a loss, complain about it, come off a bye and pound a service academy. So the call is 35-0 at halftime, with Notre Dame covering the over by itself. Then Ole Miss -12.5 against Auburn is the guest’s number one play of the whole weekend. Ole Miss at home is a juggernaut, and Auburn’s fortunate win only gave the books some pause. Also, CJ Sullivan has Ole Miss winning by four touchdowns, which clears this number with plenty of room to spare.
The Man In The Box On McAfee And GameDay
Before the guest signs off, there’s a detour into the NBA. The guest went to Bulls-Knicks and watched Jalen Brunson go off after the Bulls led by 19. So the verdict is that the game has never been played better. But injuries have turned the title into a war of attrition, and the travel schedule bounces teams around like an indie band. Then the Man in the Box segment lands on Pat McAfee. McAfee is fine on College GameDay, because the real stars are the hammered, happy college kids behind the set. The problem is ESPN overexposing him on every other show until everyone is sick of him.
There’s one more action ticket for the road. The Man in the Box is heading to Kings-Ottawa tonight and playing the Kings at even money, purely for the sweat from good seats. Also, a bonus Bottom Line Bombs drops tomorrow for the Breeders’ Cup, with a horse owner on to break down the whole Saturday card. And the contest goal hasn’t changed since the top of the show. It’s 5-0 or bust in Week 8.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
1:37 Welcome To Bottom Line Bombs
6:23 Brewers Win the World Series & WNBA Game Six
9:07 Carolina vs. Green Bay Picks
20:32 Circa Millions Contest & Bears Trade
27:56 Special Guest
31:02 New England vs. Miami Picks
34:57 Atlanta vs. Tampa Picks
36:49 Colts vs. Jacksonville Picks
39:50 Chargers vs. Rams Picks
41:14 Kansas City vs. Denver Picks
44:53 Baltimore vs. Buffalo Picks
47:20 Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh Picks
50:07 Minnesota vs. Indiana Picks
51:35 Illinois vs. Maryland Picks
52:42 Wisconsin vs. Iowa Picks
53:21 Navy vs. Notre Dame Picks
53:53 Auburn vs. Ole Miss Picks
55:21 Recap & KB Gambles With His Friends
57:38 NBA Injuries & Attrition
1:02:16 Contest Entry Recap
1:03:24 Man in the Box: McAfee & Cheesecake Factory
1:12:17 Sign-Off & Socials
