The 2024 College Football Playoffs have already reached the semifinal rounds. We’ll see a game today and on Friday to determine who will play in the Championship game. I’ve picked every bowl game in these articles and given out an ATS pick and sometimes Moneyline dog play. Currently sitting at 34-18, we’re looking to see if we can continue! Let’s look at the college football playoff semifinal preview, picks, and best bets!
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Check out all the staff picks here.
College Football Playoff Semifinal Preview, Picks, and Best Bets
Orange Bowl: Penn State vs. Notre Dame (-1)
The first college football playoff semifinal game to look at picks and best bets is the Orange Bowl. Penn State and Notre Dame face off against each other. The Irish are currently a one-point favorite, even though they opened up as a seven-point dog. I’m honestly not sure which team’s path to the semifinal impresses me less.
Penn State played SMU and Boise, two teams that play a much easier schedule in the season and don’t have the same recruiting advantages. Notre Dame beat Indiana, who many questioned should be in the CFP. Then they beat Georgia but without Georgia’s starting quarterback. Still, putting up 23 points on the Georgia defense is impressive. Even if over half those points were scored in 56 seconds due to turnovers and a kick return.
Notre Dame’s power offense scored an average of 37.7 points per game this season. They also averaged 189 passing yards and 217 rushing yards. Their defense held opponents to 13.6 points per game, 167 passing yards, and 127 rushing yards. Even without Carson Beck, I thought Georgia had a good chance to beat them. I still think if you eliminate the turnover at the end of the first-half, leading to a Notre Dame touchdown, the game goes differently.
Penn State averaged 33 points per game, 234 passing yards, and 202 rushing yards. Their defense held opponents to 15.8 points per game, 187 passing yards, and 100 rushing yards. Looking at the statistics, these two teams are pretty evenly matched on paper. Penn State lost to Oregon and Ohio State this year while Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois.
The biggest glaring difference is that Notre Dame finished 12-2 against the spread while Penn State was 8-7. I have to go with my gut feeling on this one. Penn State’s coach may have pissed Notre Dame’s coach off by saying he thinks they should be in a conference. Bad move coach.
Semifinal Bets: Notre Dame (-1) shows conferences don’t matter.
Cotton Bowl: Ohio State (-6) vs. Texas
I’m going to go ahead and predict that whoever wins this game, is winning the College Football Championship. However, making a selection for our college football playoff semifinal picks for this game is very difficult. Both of these teams lost three games ago. Both of these teams have also been on a roll since then.
I have found myself going back and forth on this game. Both of these teams have what it takes to win the game and win the Championship. The Buckeyes averaged 36 points per game, while the Longhorns averaged 34 points per game. The Buckeyes had 263 passing yards to the Longhorns’ 278. Ohio State also had 169 rushing yards to Texas’ 165.
Much like offense, on defense, these two looked very similar as well. Texas held opponents to 14 points per game while Ohio State held their opponents to 12. Texas allowed opponents to have 166 passing yards to Ohio State’s 152. Finally, the Longhorns held opponents’ run game to 111 yards while the Buckeyes held their opponents to 92.
This is going to be a hell of a clash, despite the majority of the money pouring in on Ohio State. DraftKings is reporting bets on the Moneyline currently show 76% of the tickets on Ohio State. 81% have bet Ohio State (-6) against the spread. I don’t think it’s that easy for the Buckeyes. While I think they could win the game, I think this will be a three-point game either way.
Semifinal Bets: Texas +6 – Maybe they don’t win the game, but they keep it close.
