We’re almost a full month into the college football season. This means we have enough data to start seeing trends and developing valuable college football analysis. We also have a good idea of who the contenders and pretenders are. Let’s dig into the data and review three teams to fade and three teams to follow in Week 4 of the college football season.
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Follow or Fade: College Football Trends and Analysis From Week 3
College Football Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
West Virginia Mountaineers
This one is simple. Oklahoma State is walking into a hornet’s nest on Saturday as they head into Morgantown to start Big 12 play. West Virginia is off an upset win over Virginia, and this program is already humming with head coach Rich Rodriguez.
Oklahoma State has a big win over Oregon, but they still have a first-year head coach heading into Big 12 play for the first time. Morgantown will be on fire, likely literally in places, and West Virginia is remarkably efficient through the air and capable of turning teams over. Oklahoma State has a solid run defense, but could struggle to stop West Virginia through the air, and that could open up the rushing attack.
Oklahoma State also averages 2.33 turnovers per game, and won’t be aided by a wild crowd. Dub-Vee should roll. Spot the ball!
Best Bet: West Virginia -1.5
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is 3-0 straight up, but 2-1 against the spread. However, the Crimson Tide have started to figure out how to use starting quarterback Keelon Russell. Alabama has blown out two of their three opponents and just dropped fifty on a Florida State team that always gets up for Alabama.
South Carolina heads into Tuscaloosa after dropping a heartbreaker to Mississippi State. South Carolina is susceptible through the air, and Alabama has a run defense that can stand up to the Gamecocks’ ground game. The Crimson Tide just looks more explosive on offense and has a defense that can get off the field. Let’s ride with the Crimson Tide to roll at home.
Best Bet: Alabama -12
Georgia State Panthers
Northern Illinois travels to Atlanta for a matchup against Georgia State this weekend. The Panthers have looked awesome on offense this year, while Northern Illinois has lost big to a pair of power schools and got clipped by Illinois State. Now, the Huskies have to travel to Georgia State.
The Panthers are explosive on the offensive end. Georgia State racked up nearly 500 yards of total offense on the road at UCF while scoring 30 points in a losing effort. Georgia State can hang with G5 teams on defense, but their offense should blow this open. The clear play here is to take the team that can score against the team that will struggle to get off the field.
Best Bet: Georgia State -10
Georgia State -10
College Football Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech enters the game 3-0, but the Red Raiders are 0-2 against the spread this year. They almost got clipped by Houston in Lubbock last Friday, but did enough to escape. This week? They get a mediocre C-USA team in Sam Houston State. Why fade this team? It’s simple. Sam Houston isn’t that bad, and the line is already beefy.
Texas Tech didn’t blow away Abilene Christian in Week 1, struggled at times in Corvallis against Oregon State, and just had a scare against Houston. Sam Houston State is only 1-2, but they’re 2-0 ATS and have been in each of their losses. The Bearkats have been solid defensively in their first three games. They’ve been especially strong in the defensive backfield. Sam Houston State has the ninth-best success rate against passing plays in the nation. Texas Tech quarterback Will Hammond has been up and down to start the year. Hammond has been prone to the occasional interception or bad sack. The Red Raiders may also lean on veteran quarterback Thomas Castellanos. He’s not known for passing efficiency. Sam Houston State limits the damage through the air and keeps this within the number.
Best Bet: Sam Houston State +35.5
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU enters this game 2-1 overall and 1-1 ATS. The Horned Frogs dropped their Week Zero game in Dublin, but have won back-to-back games against Grambling and Arkansas State. TCU is heading to Orlando to play UCF in the Bounce House.
This is technically the Horned Frogs’ first true road game, and they have a look-ahead game at BYU in Week 5. UCF can run the ball, and they get the home-field advantage.
TCU quarterback Jayden Craig looked great against an HBCU and a Sun Belt team, but he struggled against North Carolina in Week Zero. TCU has looked good against weaker competition, but struggled in their one game against a Power Four school. This is their first time in a hostile environment, and we’ve seen TCU look uneven on the offensive side. Let’s fade the Horned Frogs and ride with the Golden Knights.
Best Bet: UCF +3, UCF Moneyline
NC State Wolfpack
We’ve all seen the highlight. NC State looked terrible in Week Zero, beat up on Richmond, and had an all-time bad loss against Vanderbilt last weekend. The Wolfpack are a dumb football team that has already quit once this year.
Appalachian State has played a softer non-conference schedule so far this year, and this is their biggest test. The Mountaineers have beaten Maine, East Carolina, and Charlotte so far this year. However, Appalachian State is known for beating power programs, and its offense can hit a few big plays against a team that deserves to be on the auto-fade list. The Mountaineers have a solid passing attack, and the Wolfpack has struggled to stop the pass.
The game script is simple. Appalachian State hits a couple big plays early while NC State sputters. The crowd turns on the Wolfpack and the game starts to spiral. Let’s ride with the Mountaineers catching a team that’s already down and adding another win over a P4 team.
Best Bet: Appalachian State +14.5, App State Moneyline
The College Football Experience
For more analysis of every college football game in the 2026-27 season, tune in to The College Football Experience. Colby Dant and Moneyline Mac talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college football picks every week!
