For the second time in four seasons, the San Francisco 49ers have made it to the Super Bowl, so we’re hooking it up with 49ers Super Bowl Picks! Their opponents will be the Kansas City Chiefs for the second time in four seasons. The 49ers boast one of the most prolific offenses in the league. On the other side of the ball is one of the league’s top defenses. The combination earned them the top seed in the NFC and got them past the Packers and the Lions in the playoffs.
The following represent a few of the better bets on the 49ers for the big game. With so much star power on the field this weekend, there is a lot to choose from. With that in mind, here are some good ones to get you started.
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Game Lines and Totals
49ers -2 (-105)
San Francisco has failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games. However, the 49ers were favored by an average of 9.9 points in all of them. In fact, they were double-digit favorites in four of those. The closest spread San Francisco has been forced to defend was the 5.5 points given to the Rams to close out the regular season.
They face a Kansas City team that is 12-7-1 against the spread this season. The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last five games. In three of them, they entered the game as underdogs. Kansas City has won their last five games, including all three playoff appearances.
The Chiefs have bested the 49ers in each of their last three meetings. One of which just happened to be Super Bowl LIV to end the 2019 season. The last of which ended with a 44-23 manhandling back in 2022.
San Francisco is 2nd in the league, scoring an average of 28.9 points per game this season. Kansas City is 15th on the list, averaging 21.8 points per game this year. Both teams feature stingy defenses.
The Chiefs are allowing the second-fewest points to their opponents on average (16.8), whereas the Niners are giving up an average of 18.4 points.
Game Total Over 47.5 (-110)
With two of the top defenses in the league, the Under feels like a lock. However, this has the feel of a true slugfest on both sides of the ball. Sure, this may not end up as a high-scoring shootout. That said, the 49ers have combined for the Over in six of their last nine games in spite of that defense.
Kansas City, on the other hand, has kept games to the Under in five of their last six matchups. Their highest combined points total came in the Divisional Round with a 51-point game with the Bills. Buffalo featured the league’s fifth-best scoring offense. On the season, the Chiefs are 6-14 on the Over.
These two teams have combined for the Over in two of their last three meetings. Even still, the only time in that span they failed to reach the mark, they put up 51 total points with the line set at 53.
Prop Bets
Christian McCaffrey to Score 2+ Touchdowns (+245)
There are several reasons why Christian McCaffrey is in the league MVP conversation. One of those is his ability to score touchdowns. His 21 total touchdowns put him in a tie for the most in the league with former 49ers running back Raheem Mostert, who is now in Miami.
San Francisco’s top scorer has reached the end zone safely in seven of his last five games. He has crossed the goal line more than once in four of those, including his two playoff appearances.
His danger comes not only from his threat of scoring on the ground, where he has tallied 14 touchdowns but also from the passing game, in which he has added another seven.
Kansas City has allowed just 1.9 touchdowns per game this season. They have not allowed more than one six-point play in three of their last four outings. However, they did surrender three touchdowns to the Bills in the Divisional Round.
Brandon Aiyuk Over 4.5 Receptions (+120)
Standout receiver Brandon Aiyuk led the 49ers across every major receiving category, including total receptions during the regular season.
He had nine more catches (75) than McCaffrey (67), who was second on the list. Overall, Aiyuk averaged 4.7 receptions over his 16 games this year. He eclipsed this mark in nine of those outings.
Despite not crossing this threshold so far this postseason, the opportunities have been there. Aiyuk has been targeted 14 times in his two playoff appearances. He has seen at least six targets in both of them. On the season, he garnered a team-high 105 targets.
The Chiefs are allowing just over 20 completions per game to opposing quarterbacks. At least one receiver has caught at least five passes in their last four contests and has done so in each of their three playoff games. In their last meeting, Kansas City allowed Aiyuk to catch 7 of his 11 targets.
George Kittle Over 25.5 1st Half Rec Yards (-110)
San Francisco tight end George Kittle ended the regular season averaging 63.8 receiving yards per game. Of those, an average of 29.2 came in the first half. Kittle has proven to be able to get a big chunk of this on one catch, averaging 15.7 yards per reception before the playoffs. That number shoots up to 18 during the postseason.
The Chiefs allowed Dalton Kincaid to gain 35 yards in the first half of his playoff matchup against them. In their 2022 meeting, Kansas City allowed Kittle to explode for 63 yards against them before the half. In 2018, the Chiefs surrendered 30 yards to the 49ers tight end.
