Excitement is in the air as the Kansas City Chiefs triumphantly return to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the past five seasons. Undeniably a powerhouse in the AFC, the Chiefs have consistently dominated despite the surging talent across the NFL. Go here for the latest Superbowl odds.
In anticipation of this thrilling matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, SGPN presents the ultimate Chiefs Betting preview, guiding our readers to the most lucrative KC picks and steering them clear of potential pitfalls. Also, don’t forget to follow our Super Bowl Catalog this week; we have plenty more features covering various Super Bowl betting topics and strategies on the way!
Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl LVIII Betting Preview
First Touchdown Prop Bets
Let’s kick things off and review which Chiefs players will most likely land the first touchdown scored in Super Bowl LVIII. You should use a “three-quarter unit” bet strategy when betting first touchdown props.
This type of betting allows bettors to express confidence in their pick while managing their bankroll with a more fractional approach.
The half unit represents 50% of a complete unit, and each quarter unit represents 25%, combining 75% or three-quarters of a full betting unit. Below are the Kansas City players I’m targeting in this category.
Isiah Pacheco +600 (0.50 Unit)
$50 Bet – Payout: $350
Isiah Pacheco is the most reliable choice for a first touchdown in the KC player pool, having secured Kansas City’s opening touchdown in half of his games this season.
Across 14 appearances, Pacheco found the end zone first in seven instances, boasting 12 touchdowns for the season and notably scoring in last year’s Super Bowl against the Eagles. The Chiefs exhibit unwavering confidence in Pacheco’s ability.
While the San Francisco 49ers typically showcase a robust run defense, recent events, such as allowing three substantial rushing touchdowns against the Lions last week, suggest a potential vulnerability.
Anticipate the Chiefs strategically deploying Pacheco early in the game. At +600 odds, Pacheco presents a more favorable value than Christian McCaffrey’s +350.
While McCaffrey is a prolific scorer, the attention he commands from opposing defenses, coupled with the high stakes of the Super Bowl, makes Pacheco the more enticing option for an opening touchdown. Expect the Chiefs to be cautious against letting McCaffrey dominate the first drive.
Travis Kelce +700 (0.25 Unit)
$25 Bet – Payout: $200
Technically, Kelce is “Heating Up” in the first touchdown department! Travis Kelce has recorded back-to-back games with the “First Touchdown Scored,” not just for Kansas City but for the game prop.
One of the lessons every SGPN father teaches their children is: “Never walk away from a Heater!” While my math says Pacheco is our guy, we must spread the wealth with our “Three-Quarter Unit” bet strategy.
I also am willing to tail the “retirement” narrative here. It’s rumored that Kelce is ready to hang up the cleats and set sail for the Hall of Fame.
I only bring this up because it plays into the “recency bias” or “Heater” narrative. Chancing Kelce for three straight games feels like a big ask, mainly because the last two weeks were the only times he scored Kansas City’s first touchdown this season.
Given his popularity, it’s the Super Bowl, and many bets will likely come in on Kelce to hit this prop. If you like this pick, SMASH it at these odds while you still can. I expect the market to shift as more action comes in throughout the week.
Rashee Rice +900 (0.25 Unit)
$25 Bet – Payout: $250
While I’m not throwing out flashy odds picks like Marquez Valdes Scantling, Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman, or even the KC Chiefs D/ST, I’m confidently embracing the statistical edge. The Chiefs have notched touchdowns in 19 out of 20 games this season.
In those 19 games, the trio of players I’ve highlighted, including Rashee Rice, has seized the first touchdown for KC a whopping 13 times.
That’s nearly a 70% success rate, showcasing the consistency of these players. Rice, in particular, found the end zone first for the Chiefs on four occasions this season, including a playoff game against the Dolphins.
So, when it comes to banking on a first touchdown, these stats are more than just numbers—they’re a confident play backed by a reliable track record this season.
Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl LVIII Underdog Pick’em Picks
Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Completions
Regardless of the unlikely scenario where the 49ers dominate the Chiefs in this game, I am confident Mahomes will surpass this number. He has exceeded this total in three out of his last four Super Bowl appearances.
Last year against the Eagles, he didn’t require the same volume, but it’s crucial to note that in each of his previous Super Bowl outings, Mahomes precisely hit 26 completions.
Rashee Rice Over 67.5 Receiving Yards
Rice has hit this number in two of his last four games, but I bet the Chiefs will rely heavily on him early with low ADOT throws to move the chains efficiently. While Kelce won’t be contained for the entire game,
I’m confident San Francisco will focus on him in the early stages, ultimately boosting Rice’s production in the first half.
Despite an average of just 58.5 receiving yards per game this season, Rice has exceeded these figures recently, showcasing an upward trajectory in his role throughout the season.
Notably, he ranked second on the team in total receiving yards with 938, with Kelce leading the pack at 984. These numbers and recent performance trends underscore my confidence in Rice’s pivotal role and production potential in Super Bowl LVIII.
Travis Kelce Over 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs
Pacheco has undeniably been the linchpin for the Chiefs! Leading the team in all-purpose yards with an impressive 1179, which includes a noteworthy 244 receiving yards.
While his average of 5.5 yards per reception may seem modest, this is the game where his multifaceted skills will shine against a formidable defense, particularly on the edges.
Anticipate Pacheco being a key target for essential dump-off passes and strategically designed RB targets, crucial for moving the chains in shorter situations.
The 49ers, known for their staunch defense, allowed an average of only 38 yards receiving per game to opposing running backs and ranked 8th in total receiving yards to RBs during the regular season. This sets the stage for Pacheco to showcase his versatility and significantly impact critical moments.
Kansas City Money Line, Spread, and Game Total Picks
Chiefs Moneyline +105
Early money may have the Chiefs pegged as the underdog in this matchup. Still, I’m unapologetically drawn to Patrick Mahomes with plus money, and I staunchly believe the Chiefs will emerge victorious in this game for several compelling reasons. The Chiefs’ defense has been stellar this season, allowing the second-fewest yards against.
This defensive unit consistently kept KC in the game, showcasing resilience even when the offense faced challenges. Their discipline is evident, as they incurred the second-fewest penalties on defense in the NFL this year.
I anticipate the 49ers putting up points, but I have confidence that the Chiefs’ defense will deliver a game-changing play or two, tipping the scales in favor of Kansas City.
Secondly, the “Experienced QB” factor is a game-changer. While I respect Brock Purdy, Mahomes has navigated these high-stakes situations more frequently. This isn’t to diminish Purdy’s exceptional season, but the Super Bowl is an entirely different beast. I trust Mahomes to minimize turnovers, accumulate more passing yards, and lead his team to a resounding victory.
Lastly, my trust in Andy Reid over Kyle Shanahan is fixed. Shanahan has shown playoff resilience, but his game planning has faltered in the first half of his recent playoff games.
On the contrary, Reid boasts three Super Bowls and is vying for his fourth. He’s a nuanced coach who implemented a more balanced attack this year. I expect him to give us fireworks and solidify his legacy with a fourth championship ring!
Chiefs Against the Spread
I’m not just buying into the Kansas City Chiefs; I’m all in, confidently taking them up to -3 with enticing +155 odds. I believe the Chiefs stand as the more balanced team, excelling on offense and defense. Moreover, the 49ers have struggled against the spread to begin with.
Although the current spread favors San Francisco at -3, I anticipate a shift toward a pick’em scenario by kickoff, leaving us with just the money line. Recognizing the game’s closeness, I’m decisively changing the narrative and throwing my support behind the team I firmly believe is the real favorite.
Super Bowl LVIII Game Total
The Game Total for Super Bowl LVIII currently sits at 47.5 points, and I’m confident in riding the Under trend. The Under has proven successful in four out of the last five Super Bowl seasons. Although we hit the over last year with the Chiefs, this season feels different, given Kansas City’s formidable defensive talent.
The Chiefs have favored the under in an impressive 14 out of 20 games this season, underlining their defensive prowess. Conversely, the 49ers have an 8-11 record to the Under this year, emphasizing their potential for more scoring.
I firmly believe the Chiefs will establish the game’s tone. Expect the Chiefs to control play with extended possessions on offense and limit the 49ers to short possessions on offense. I recommend buying up the total and slamming the Under.
Opting for 50 game points, the Under pays -152. Pushing it further to 52 game points pays -199. While these may not be the highest payouts, I find them safer, providing a confident foundation in a friendly Super Bowl Parlay!
